Massive
Global Financial Collapse by: November 2009!
Urgent Web Bot Update - Saturday
October 3, 2009 - Ref: 10/25
The following in from Clif
at www.halfpasthuman.com on Saturday
- changes somewhat our expectation for the way things will be working out both
in markets and in the defense world over the next month:
"Heads up! Reality
Change Ahead!
In running our
MOM (model of modelspace) cleanup of the lexicon prior to tuning, it became
apparent that October 25 turn in emotions globally will be dominated by a [lock down/implosion] of the [planetary financial/banking system]. The data suggests that such things as [currency
trading] and [commodities trading] as well as many other [digital trading
forms] will be [suspended]. Some will never resume, or if
they do, they will be in entirely different forms. There may be an [banking
lock up] in many countries emanating from the USofA outward. There may be
[inter bank lock downs] in which [central banks] and [wealth storage clearing
houses] will not be able to function. There are data sets suggesting that the
rapid shift into building tension language on the 25th originates from and is
propelled by the [financial system implosion] that then morphs over into
[dollar rejected by all] a mere 10/ten days (more or less) later. There may be
shut downs of all kinds of banking activity within the USofA and the rest of
the anglosphere.
The
[sudden/urgent travel] of the [administration (Obama et al) minions] in early
November, under this MOM background load shows up as being about [desperately
trying] to get the rest of the [planet] to [loan] the actual [resources/wealth]
to [restart] the [USofA banking system].
This MOM data set
can be wrong in a way that the larger modelspace can not. The MOM set is so
small that if it is wrong it is usually widely so. However, the data sets here
are so focused, and bring in such crisp emotional shifts relative to the same
days (10-25-2009), that it made sense to prepare this note.
If correct, this
is the beginning of "The Big One" relative to the dollar and the
central banking system. Everything else in the modern world depends on this
structure...so it will be a big one throughout all of the social
infrastructure.
If MOM is
correct, then the [dollar death] will be way more dramatic and waaaay shorter
than I had first thought. MOM is showing very dramatic language shifts (albeit
against a much smaller background) for not only October 25, but also in a very
sharp crocodile tooth pattern from November 4 through December 10th indicating
a very very emotionally choppy time.
So, heads up!
Reality shift (time/event bump) just ahead. If MOM is correct, there will be
some additional levels of [visibility] on October 10th through the 15th that
will put a focus on the 'trigger' that will show on October 25th and beyond.
Masa Katsu! Pie
up now, panic later.
clif and cathy
and igor.
The usual caveats here - doesn't mean, for example
that war between Iran and Israel won't happen, it just means if it does
(which is may anyway) it will be so far down the food chain as to pale in terms
of personal impact.
If you didn't have anything else to do this weekend,
you might be pondering: "How could I survive - and for how long - if there
were market suspensions, hold-ups of executions of electronic transactions and
all the other things other countries have gone through when faced with
calamitous financial events? Refer to any Argentinean or Icelander who's
been there... Sure means out earlier piece this morning may be closer to
the mark than comfortable....
Waiting
for Black Monday
Maybe it will be this coming
Monday - or maybe one after that - but the forces which have been building as
this 'bounce from the first leg down' in the market continue to evolve, I can
tell you the absolute last place I'd have money today would be in
stocks. I spent part of Friday working on the subscriber report (www.peoplenomics.com) for this weekend
and the Dow still appears to be higher - by a factor of more than two - than
competing investments. Lots of myths and 'old sayings' from that period
which will be reviewed in Sunday's report. But most stem from common
sense - you can't live high on borrowed money forever - yet with a continuing
balance of payments deficit, a moronic mantra like 'strong dollar' and an
increasing lag in manufacturing, the American dream stands on the precipice of
becoming the American nightmare. Such is the stuff of economic tipping
points.
Web
Bots One Trading Day Till……What?
Friday
October 23, 2009 07:55 AM CDT
We've got - from when the
market opens in NY this morning - only about 6½ trading hours to go until we
get to the long-awaited October 25/26 emotional turning which is due to
take place according to the work out of www.halfpasthuman.com.
If you're a newbie, the general concept is that changes in language tend to
precede changes in reality and for quite some time, in fact on the other of
months and months, we have been looking at the period we're just coming into as
when 'emotional tensions releasing' turn back into 'emotional tensions
building'.
The modeling of events
suggests that whatever is going to happen will arise out of 'globalpop' which
means the center of the buzz amongst humans will not be limited to a few
trading wonks; it'll be
something big and something that will be on the tips of people's tongues
by next Friday worldwide. A quick check of the kind of
events that could fit the linguistics...and you're welcome to throw your own
darts here:
·
The
#1 possibility - never to be overlooked - is that we've got the processing
wrong and nothing will happen. Unfortunately, since the predictive
technique has worked well in advance of previous events, it may work out
again. So we move down the list of possibilities...
·
A
mega-quake would certainly do it. As our Indonesia correspondent BG
reported earlier this week, the Indonesia meteorological office's geophysical
group issued a warning for this time period of an 8.0 to 8.4 quake. That
could put the scale of destruction from resulting tsunamis and such up near the Banda
Ache (9.1 to 9.3) size and that would cause building tensions while
damage is assessed and the world assimilates impacts.
·
Israel
could decide to get after Iran's nuclear facilities - something that has been
in the cards for a long time. But that might be considered
'release language' - which is what short-term striking out pencils in
modelspace. What could change it into an emotional build
period? Well, if the bunker-buster bombs set off a nuclear explosion, or
it a huge cloud of radioactive debris is popped into the atmosphere and we have
a period of a week or three while the fallout from the event drifts eastward
toward China and then down from Alaska via the jet stream to guess where?
Or, what is as a consequence OPEC allied with China and Russia draws an embargo
around the West for it's nominal support of such an operation, or if Iran
responds with multiple NBC weapons aimed at Israel and we get an escalation
sequence over a several weeks period?
·
Who
needs exogenous events, however, when the market's rally is so long in the
tooth already? Yeah, the happy-talk is that 'good times are here' but
there are some bothersome bearish divergences if you study the technical
picture. Just as one 'for instance' consider that the 1.33% rally in the
Dow on Thursday was accompanied by a just darn near flat Dow Transports move.
Under Dow Theory, as go transports, so goes the Indoo's over time.
·
Or,
the problem could be a huge jam-up in the US dollar starting Monday. Such
a scenario might have a trigger event like words that the Euro is in trouble
and may not be a dollar-equivalent within the EU because of bickering in
Europe. Conversely, the possibility of a unilateral - preemptive - 40%
devaluation of the dollar when most people aren't expecting it could catch
global markets off balance and while sending a flood of dollars home to the USA
ensuring a lower lifestyle) it would nevertheless set up the possibility of
announcing partial gold convertibility at the new lower price. The
ramification of this open were outlined in yesterday's column.
·
There
are plenty of other 'events' or 'event clusters' that could have the same
impact (rising tensions for two or three weeks would likely track with a
declining market by the end of the next trading week, but that's only if the
dollar isn't devalued. Pick almost any global-sized headline you
want - like the American Bankers Association meetings in Chicago that kick off
Sunday and where protests - perhaps large back by angry unemployed and
foreclosed homeless - might be a trigger.
·
Yes,
the possibility of a nuclear terrorist event (again with tensions building as
the internet is dialed back and so forth) would be another one that could have
a 2-3 week 'tail' of worry. We don't run too much processing in that area,
though, since that's Homeland Security's playing field and we'd likely be
unwelcome interlopers. Still, I've taken the unusual step of setting up a
static IP address for this page ( http://72.52.163.140/week.htm
- bookmark it) along with an SSL layer so access via https://72.52.163.140/ will be
possible. Subscribers to my Peoplenomics.com newsletter will still be
able to access via http://67.225.203.185/
and again, an SSL layer is provided. All this on the incredibly thin
chance that Monday might bring a massive coordinated attack on the internet's
name server architecture. If you have all your bank IP addresses cached
(a poor pun, indeed) then disruption should be minimized, but as I've pointed out
before better to be prepared and wrong, instead of ill-prepared and thrown
under the bus.
My hope is that the
technology finally be horribly wrong and that Thursday or next week, the market
will still be where it is, green shoots talk will be building, and peace &
harmony will be breaking out globally. But realistically? Something 85% economic in
nature, 15% 'other' seems to be in the cards.
"George, you're a
doomster..." you might be thinking. No: A doomster would enumerate
the really really grim possibilities. The things worse than an
earthquake. But, since you asked, what could be worse than any of
this? Oh, how about a catastrophic dam failure at Three Gorges and the
impact of that kind of event on China's (not to mention the whole world's)
economy. That is not in the data (at least yet) but such an
occurrence would certainly get us toward the kind of depopulation events that
are in the modelspace farther out. And even that pales compared
to...well, stick around a year or two; no point ruining the weekend, eh?
OK, one more thing - since I
outlined the possibility for Peoplenomics subscribers in a weekly report two
weeks ago in issue #424 "The Day the Dollar Died", it may be worth
reiterating that talk about 'open internet' has been building and we've seen
enough 'prequel' motion in that area such that an attack (via the 'net) on key
banking and financial systems beginning next week could trigger an obvious
response path by government. From my 'hypothetical' event discussion of a
possible future noted here's what might happen should such an attack be carried
out:
"As the presidential news conference ended,
scores of internet based services were already blinking off as NORTHCOM
asserted its control of the internet. Unknown to the public, numeric IP
addresses would continue to operate, but because virtually all web sites are
known to their users only by their names turning down the internet became a
simple mattering of turning off name servers...."
Don't mean to HAARP on
things here, but with "U.S.
FCC commissioners support open Internet rule" what better way to spin
around the Internet and bring it to heel - much as radio was
brought to heel by the Commissions Act of 1934 - than to have a LIHOP/MIHOP
event that could be used by government to seize and license Internet use?
Shut them troublesome blogs up, easy enough which might improve the rapidly falling
polls on president Obama's performance in office.
WARNING:
Will “The Rapture” be the
trigger that causes the ABOVE?
Systemic Failure Approaches
by Jim Willie, CB. Editor,
Hat Trick Letter | October 1, 2009
Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the
USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the
last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability,
let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a pernicious and not so secret
syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be
removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and
disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control
as well as its probable egregious fraud. Debate stirs whether the
nationalizations have actually enabled adoption of wrecked assets, have
concealed executive ransacking, and have buried massive counterfeit of bonds.
Debate stirs whether the mountainous federal deficits, the nationalizations of
essentially Black Holes, and the endless war spending make deficit reduction a
distant dream. Debate stirs on whether the gargantuan accumulation of USFed
reserves will spill over to produce widespread price inflation. Debate stirs on
why after causing the foundation failure of the US financial structure from
Wall Street and the USFed offices, these institutions not only remain in power
but demand greater power.
It is my contention that the US financial
structures broke without any remote potential for repair and revival in the
summer of 2007. The
symptoms became obvious in the summer of 2008 to the slower observers with
visible shock waves bathed in crisis. The reactions from shock waves have come
since the autumn months of 2008. The system has broken, but the syndicate in
control wishes to keep the music going, keep the machinery turning, keep the
money flowing, so that they can continue the massive rackets, bury the frauds
& counterfeit, cover their tracks, process the bad paper into USGovt
coffers, continue to corner the printing press operations, continue to con the
USCongress into granting more funds for Goldman Sachs to dictate dispensation
secretly, and to continue the endless war whose rivers of blood are matched
only by rivers of redirected private contractor fraudulent payments. Nobody
seeks justice and prosecution for over $1 trillion in mortgage bond fraud.
Nobody seeks to remove Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan from control posts at the
USDept Treasury and USFed respectively. Nobody seeks even to locate the missing
$50 billion from the Iraq Reconstruction Fund, or to announce the known
location of the stolen $100 billion from the Madoff Ponzi Scheme (it aint $50B
and they know its exact hiding place).
Foreigners have been
very busy since the autumn 2008, as they dismantle the levers, knock down the
pillars, block the escape routes, yank the collateral from the paper
marketplaces, and otherwise thwart the US-UK schemes.
To claim that the system can be put on proper stable footing
is lunatic. To expect that the nation can be recalibrated so as to return to
the Good Ole Days of US global dominance and leadership is lunatic. To urge
that the economic signposts, megaphones, and billboards be once again guided by
policies best described as Bubbly Economic Mythology is lunatic. Yet delusional
Americans actually believe the dominant ship at sea can lead as flagship, when
it has taken on more water than the Titanic. Since the autumn months of 2008,
marred by the Lehman Brothers failure, marred by the Fannie Mae adoption,
marred by the AIG adoption, punctuated by a shameful 0% interest rate policy
(ZIRP) and a green light for limitless money creation (QE), the United States
has lost any semblance of leadership. Instead, its leadership has earned scorn,
criticism, and disrespect. The last people on the globe to comprehend the American condition of
failure, corruption, and military aggression seem to be the Americans
themselves, who live within the USDome of Perception. They suffer
from perhaps the worst education levels in the industrialized world, coupled
with a co-opted national news media network, clouded by the grandest drugstore
medication in history. Debate stirs on whether the US actually controls its own
news media. The US does not cover the global Paradigm Shift underway that will
change its landscape radically.
The clearest conclusions center on almost nothing put on a
sustainable viable course for the nation. Amplification and widened breadth of all
that failed cannot serve as the core for revival or recovery, let alone
stability. Yet such
policies seem the only ones our hapless bank leaders are able to execute. It is
a dog returning to gobble his vomit. It is akin to managers urging their worst
workers to intensify their efforts, and to join the ranks of management. These Keynesians cannot
admit that the central bank franchise model has failed, not to be resurrected. In my view, the debates, the
foundations, and the reactions scream two major messages. 1) The system is out
of control, with the drivers ramming down the accelerator for even more of
everything that failed, for a locomotive within a monetary system based upon
illegitimate money. 2) The USGovt finances are heading toward a recognized
failure, identified by both a banking system bankrupt seizure and a USTreasury
default. The
nation cannot come to grips with the bold stark notion that foreigners control
our fate, from their revolt against the USDollar as a global reserve currency,
from their revolt in supplying additional credit to the USGovt and USEconomy. The reaction so far to crisis has
been to rely more heavily upon the Printing Pre$$, to monetize the debts, and
to conceal such operations, all while permitting syndicates to operate with
impunity. The revolving doors spin freely that fill job posts at the USDept
Treasury, Wall Street firms, USGovt regulatory bodies, and key foundations,
warranting charges of incest at best and corruption at worst. Things are out of
control!
In fact, my forecast is for
systemic failure.
Its primary elements will be a failed US banking system (as in seizure) and a
USTreasury Bond default (as in coerced restructure). Again, martial law and
declaration of economic emergency will be the final solution. The prison camps
will become debtor prisons and warehouses for illegals, maybe a processing
plant for those who refuse virus vaccination. They are already constructed with
over 200 ready for occupancy. Those in denial might become residents. They
could also feature some dissidents, along with some writer analysts. Two years
ago, my analysis regularly mentioned martial law and imposed order to handle
the chaos from a disintegrated economy and insolvent dysfunctional banking
system. Here we are in the present, when such forecasts do not sound so
outrageous anymore. The Jackass has featured a string of seemingly outrageous
forecasts that have come true. The US system is credit dependent, and credit
will soon be cut off, in the next chapter of isolation. The Printing Pre$$ is a
temporary solution, en route to a failed state. The US leaders and citizens do
not learn from history. They defy history amidst delusions of omnipotent power.
See the Weimar Republic, which has gone global! Even Gore Vidal expects
recognition of the Untied States having adopted communism. Even the World Bank
led by yet another Goldman Sachs pupil warns the Untied States not to assume
the USDollar will remain the unchallenged global reserve currency.
GOLD IS RESILIENT
The true
sanctuary is gold, in the face of debauchery of paper money. We see some clear first
hand evidence of the ‘Beijing Put’ at work. It could provide a banking system foundation, except
that the Gold Cartel and Banker Elite would have to forfeit power, maybe face
poverty. Notice the quick recovery. With a slightly lower gold price, the
off-take delivery of physical gold has been magnificent, much greater than a week
or two ago. The Wall Street banksters are shocked to learn that demand is not
isolated, but rather comes from diverse global sources. The Powerz threw all they could at
gold, mentioned some half-baked story about I.M.F. gold sales (more like
closure to decade old short sales), and upped the ante of illicit gold futures
contract sales (without benefit of COMEX collateral). Notice the moving
averages all aligned and rising. Notice the stochastix cyclical index that come
down quickly to the 20 low trigger, ready to rise on a quick reload. The
response breakout was very typical, seen a million times before. The breakout
loses the amateurs and fast traders who miss the big picture. Like a diver off
a springboard, the dive commences for a lift upward. The pullback was really
miniscule. The recovery was rapid and impressive, in symmetry with the
suddenness of the controlled correction. The Chinese are obviously thanking the
corrupted Powerz for their paper games, loading on more acidic paper, offering
the Middle Kingdom yet more gold bullion at reasonable prices. The Chinese want
to maximize their accumulation of gold from the PaperBoyz, at the best price.
They do not want a catapult upward in the gold price. They want a gradual
controlled price. The Gold Cartel seems extremely willing to accommodate.
ABSENT A STRONG FOUNDATION
Widespread
Insolvency is a major theme of the broken
condition. The banks
have assets and income grossly below their debts and liabilities. They must
rely upon phony FASB accounting, which was the basis of the stock recovery
beginning in April. They must bring fresh capital, lost as fast as it arrives.
They now tell the public what their assets are worth, backwards to any market
concept. The households are suffering from mortgage obligations even as housing prices continue
to slide lower. With almost one third of American homeowners who hold mortgages
operating with an underwater status, whereby their home loans exceed the home
value, the army of consumers is more than hampered. Unlike the bankers, the
households of America cannot just pound the table, engineer an absurd Stress
Test, and declare they are solvent enough for equity extensions. The households
line up for defaults and foreclosures instead. The smart ones demand that the
bankers prove clear certified title of their property. See the Kansas MERS case
that might serve as precedent to jam the gears of the bankers intending to
seize homes in foreclosure. The bankers cannot prove they hold clear title.
Such is the vagary of mortgage bond fraud, as it seeps to the surface.
The USGovt finances are in shambles, with $1800 billion
in fiscal 2009 deficits, and easily $1300 billion to come in the next year.
Take away the Printing Pre$$ from the desperate delinquent devils running the
USGovt finance ministries, and national debt default would take place within 60
days. The nation does not even contemplate budget surplus, but rather justifies
yawning deficits and lies using lunatic forecasts. The industrial base is also largely depleted. The
Chinese Most Favored Nation granted in 1999 set the stage for shipment of much
of the US factories to China. In the process, the USEconomy replaced income
with debt, all in the name of ‘Low Cost Solutions’ moronically. Corporate
leaders in America reacted to heavy burdens of government regulations and
higher taxes, even to rugged labor unions. Maybe their relocation decisions
constituted betrayal, or maybe just reaction to onerous conditions that evolved
over decades.
The Albatross of falling property prices, both
residential and commercial, continues to hang around the neck of the USEconomy.
The full impact of the commercial property decline has yet to be felt, more in
delayed reaction. A queer factor comes into play with commercial mortgages and
loans. Even if the majority of payments are current, even if most tenants pay
rent on time, the loans tend not to be viable for refinance and rollover. The
Loan-to-Value ratios are all horrible after a broad 30% to 40% property price
decline. Banks require more equity. On the residential side, the Prime Option
ARMortgages are lined up for the kill. It seems that payment of less than the
required interest was not a good idea after all. It seems that leaving
homeowners the option to build their loan balance when property prices fell was
not a good idea after all. Now they face 100% to 200% monthly loan payment
increases, all in the fine print unread years back. So liquidations and
foreclosures will continue to come, complete with outsized bank losses. The Perpetuation of Loss is ensured by continued property
foreclosures and liquidation. Despite all talk, the process continues. Despite
the pain, the statistics continue to be mangled with a purposeful motive.
The Accounting Fraud for bank balance sheets and stock
valuation runs like a cancerous streak throughout the financial sector. The
best way to cover up fraud is with more fraud. The best way to cover up
accounting chicanery is to have the USCongress bless it as legal, vital, and
essential. Once the stock market rose for consecutive months, talk of phony
accounting rules is forgotten, SINCE IT SUCCEEDED, even served as proof of recovery.
What nonsense! A moral depravity has permeated not just the financial sector,
but the public as well. They cry out from the corners laden with pain, but
without specific targets. The end of the FASB relaxed rules is scheduled for
January 1st. Let’s see if a compromised USCongress and corrupt Wall Street
demand its extension. They obviously will. Furthermore, both Basel 2 and Basel
3 guidelines are ignored, since from outsiders. Ignore them at one’s own peril,
as they gather as Enemies at the Gate among the USGovt creditors. Theirs might
turn into an angry lynch mob. Foreign creditors are the #1 adversary to all
things American right here, right now.
SUSTAINING FORCES
Numerous
hidden forces sustain the current breakdown and hamper anything remotely
resembling a recovery. The only thing in recovery is the banter, billboards,
and propaganda. In fact, most praise of success comes from people who praise
their own efforts, like USFed Chairman Bernhacky. His predecessor was also very
accomplished at praising his own craft and alchemy. Sir Alan Greenspasm left
the national banking system hanging over the precipice, from where it fell in a
short time after passage of the mantle at his retirement. He believed his
housing bubble saved America from disaster. He believed that credit derivatives
offloaded risk. Little did he realize that the next disaster is always much
greater than the saved previous one, when amplified credit and monetary ease
are the solutions relied upon, all pure heresy. He lives now in London, and
spends much time in Switzerland. These nations paid his secretive other
paychecks. These nations are where his loyalty and all directives came from in
my opinion. Many hidden forces will work to undermine the current efforts to
instill a recovery to the USEconomy and a resuscitation of the US banking
system. Bernhacky
will soon realize that reliance upon the same toxin and formaldehyde to course
through the increasingly cancerous bodies will produce even worse problems
during the next crisis phase. It comes.
Numerous
sustaining forces will contribute toward the inexorable path to systemic
failure. It will begin with the relapse failure of the US banking system.
Citigroup is facing real bankruptcy, whose numerous segments are underwater and
growing worse. Bank of America is in a death spiral, whose CEO Ken Lewis
departs amidst political and shareholder legal pressures. Wells Fargo is so
dead that its true balance sheet makes a skeleton come to life, whose prime
Option ARM and second mortgage exposure is monumental. Maybe Citigroup, BOA,
and Wells will use USFed funds to acquire the entire US banking system and
subject it to their brilliant acumen, leadership, and access to the corrupt
money pits. Lock in those executive bonuses!
The hidden housing inventory will ensure that housing prices
continue down for a couple more years. At best they will stabilize somewhat,
but only if a monumental hidden housing inventory is permitted to accumulate.
The big banks, the very same that abused mortgage bonds with leveraged
instruments, own an outsized supply of foreclosed homes. What a fitting reward!
They tend to release only a portion of this home supply, so as to permit some
price stability as demand catches up. Lenders are reluctant to lend though,
even while the foreclosure process continues. Job loss is the main driving
factor, amidst household insolvency.
The Zero Interest Rate Policy is worn as a badge of shame to
reflect central bank failure. It rewards savings not at all. It encourages the
same speculation that produced bubbles to kill the banks and households. It
encourages a Dollar Carry Trade, which ensures a pressured decline in the
USDollar itself. The October Hat Trick Letter will discuss additional risks and
dangerous consequences from the Dollar Carry Trade. Remember, Bernhacky assured
the USCongress, the US conferences of economists, and the US people that the
USFed would not resort to 0% rates. He did just that. In addition to powering
with leverage the US$ exchange rate downward, this carry trade takes away a
viable Exit Strategy for the USFed. Imagine Wall Street leveraged speculative
machinery interrupting any potential lift in the official US interest rate!
Recall that the USFed does take orders from the Wall Street syndicate. They
selected him. They hired him. His job is to run the Printing Pre$$ day and
night, to invent new liquidity facilities, to preach solutions to the
USCongress, to shut up, and to follow orders. In the last year, the USFed has acted like
it is the entire banking system. What exactly is the exit doorway to take from that
strategy?
Without
hesitation, one can claim that No Meaningful Reform or Restructure has occurred. The US financial and
economic structures continue to suffer from precisely the same problems that
resulted in systemic breakdown in the autumn months of 2008. The difference now
is that the previous high volume of acidic money is exceeded with higher
volumes now. USGovt debts are now much higher. Lending institutions are less
prone to lend now than one or two years ago. Commercial paper used not to flow
at all, and now flows but with less volume and from fewer channels and with
more USFed assistance than ever before. Innovative thought is totally
suppressed, if not crushed. Advocates for a reformed system without paper fiat
money are dismissed. The syndicate continues to ply its trade and to control
the levers. But their work is frenzied, and they are sure to lose control.
No
meaningful reform comes even to the hundreds of thousands of mortgage loans
that undergo Home Loan Modification. They cannot alter the loan balances, since that would require
alteration of the associated mortgage loans that rely upon income stream from
loan payments. This is not acceptable, since it would reveal the pervasive bond
fraud, the counterfeit bonds, and the duplicate usage of home loans in multiple
mortgage bonds. So solutions come to toss billion$ at the big banks, without
solution, an assuredly failed Top-Down approach that appeals to Wall Street.
The extort the money and hide the paths of funds. Also, on the small business
front, the restructure of the Small Business lender & insurer CIT failed to
produce any meaningful revitalization. Its June debt restructure agreement with
bond holders failed to stick. It now seeks a $5 billion loan as debtor in possession.
A million businesses would be affected if CIT folded and was liquidated. We are
told of a recovery in progress. Its roots are in propaganda, crowd control, and
shaping of public opinion. George Orwell would smile and smirk from his 1984
address on Cemetery Lane.
No
national initiative has come to bring back US industry to the US shores. No
national initiative has come to retain businesses by means of reduced taxation
and reduced regulatory burdens. No national initiative has come to remove from
power those responsible for Wall Street bond fraud. No national initiative has
come to even force a proper accounting to Wall Street firms or Fannie Mae or
AIG. No national initiative has come to conduct a true autopsy of Lehman
Brothers, like to see what assets they held, what hedge funds they sponsored,
what counterfeit Fannie Mae bonds they were soon to toss onto the table, and whether JPMorgan did
indeed pay off private Lehman accounts with the $138 billion in slush funds. The booty was handed to them at a bankruptcy
court meeting held before dawn on an September Saturday morning. No national
initiative has come to force disclosure of the TARP fund distribution, or to
reveal what the USFed does with its trillion$ of created money. They destroyed
the USDollar, and the victims enduring the crisis from inside the USDome need
to know. Without hesitation, one can claim that all attempts to shine light on
the financial sector and its ivory towers have been obstructed.
Two
further factors ensure the sustained crisis in the USGovt finances, with
certain continued contagion to the financial sector and the tangible economy.
The Endless
War with its
increasingly less credible banter against terrorism drains the United States of
funds, saps its national spirit, cripples its soldiers, and extends risk in
countless ways. The USDollar and USTreasury Bond suffer from lost foreign
confidence and faith.
The real threat to national security lies in the finance sector rooted in Wall
Street. Almost all talk about foreign threat is a grand distraction from the
internal threat, even as incredibly grand fraud is committed in the name of
patriotism. The Entrenched Financial Syndicate remains in power, controls all
financial policy, directs funds from the Printing Pre$$, influences the USCongress
with slush contributions, controls regulatory body heads, engineers
nationalizations of fraud-ridden financial firms, interferes with FBI
investigations (see the GSax trading software), integrates with foreign policy,
and provides segments to the US press networks. Fully 70% of US press network
content comes from the USGovt and its myriad agencies with spokesmen and public
relations offices.
FAILURE & DEFAULT ON THE HORIZON
Going
hand in hand with the destructive 0% policy is the Hidden Monetization of
USGovt Debt,
clearly. The zero rate encourages new asset bubbles, like the historically
unprecedented spectacular USTreasury bubble. USTBONDS MAKE THE FINAL BUBBLE.
The zero rate enables new carry trades with no cost. The zero rate permits a
private banker party to engage in their own corner carry trade, buying
long-dated USTreasurys with free money while shorting the short-term USTBills.
This acts like a money machine for bankers to restore their balance sheets. The
only trouble is their balance sheets have a hemorrhage at work, with additional
ongoing relentless credit portfolio losses. The accounting fraud can only mask
the problem, which happens to grow worse with each passing month. With lost integrity from
the 0% rate comes disdain for the monetary system generally and for the
USDollar specifically, along with other major currencies locked near 0% also. INVESTORS TURN TO GOLD AND SILVER,
the proven sanctuary during crisis.
While the
0% official rate creates problems much like those that erupted in a crisis, the monetization of debt
issuance signals to the entire world to abandon the USDollar. The monetization assures the death
of the USDollar. It is Weimar revisited, but with more military might and far
more arrogance. Megalomania gone awry results in catastrophe. Monetization
represents back-door devious measures to stave off the disaster of bond auction
failures. Monetization is a broken promise made to creditors, who must feel
betrayed. Monetization is a vast undermine to the validity, value, and very
authenticity of a currency. The government debt for the custodian to the
global reserve currency is being monetized, thereby creating gigantic air
pockets, and funding a carry trade. The most dangerous asset bubble on the planet right now is
the USTreasury. It pays 0% on short maturities. What is next? The forced USGovt
worker pension contribution to USTreasurys? How about all state workers too, in
their pensions? Maybe eventually all 401k and IRA and Keough pension plans as
well, in their pensions? Every citizen maybe support the USTreasurys in
pensions, out of patriotism, for national security? With lost integrity from
the monetization patterned schemes, comes fear of a repeated Weimar
hyper-inflation episode. INVESTORS TURN TO GOLD AND SILVER, the proven sanctuary during crisis.
What
comes is the US bank system failure. The endless rounds of bank credit
portfolio losses dictate it. The Stress Tests are soon to be discredited, less
than one year after their farcical production. The leading losers will be
commercial mortgages, prime Option ARMortgages, and credit card losses. Banks
are not prepared, having inadequate Loan Loss Reserves, guarding their profits,
denying their reserves, managing their stock prices. They deceive their share
holders on continued portfolio risk. They try to shove all their garbage assets
on the USFed and to Fannie Mae under the USGovt roof, amidst the shrill cries
of ‘Too Big To Fail’ nonsense. A US bank system failure is coming. With lost integrity from
the banking system, insolvent in its own core, supplanted in function by the
USFed itself, lending so little as to force declines in the consumer credit
funds, comes distrust of financial institutions generally. INVESTORS TURN TO GOLD AND SILVER, the proven sanctuary
during crisis.
The Web Bot Project and 2012
For Background see:
Maybe some of you have heard of The Web Bot Project, but for
those of you who have not, it's quite intriguing.
The Web Bot Project, developed in the late 1990's, was created to assist in
making stock market predictions.
The technology uses a system of spiders to crawl the Internet and search for
keywords, much like a search engine does. When a keyword is located, the bot
program takes a snapshot of the text preceding and following the keyword. This
snapshot of text is sent to a central location where it is then filtered to
define meaning.
The projects concept is aimed at tapping into the "collective
unconscious" of the universe and it's inhabitants. As well, there is an
interesting time
concept involved and an unusual concept of a "tipping point"
regarding the past, current, and future times. It goes a bit deeper than
viewing what those of us on the Internet are saying.
But in 2001, bot operators began to notice that stock market predictions were
not the only matters being accurately predicted by the program. They began to
take notice of coincidence with occurrences and explored it further.
One of the first accurate predictions from the bot program took place in June
of 2001. The program predicted that a life-altering event would take place
within the next 60-90 days. An occurrence of such proportion that it's effects
would be felt worldwide. The program based it's prediction on "web chatter"
which ultimately represents the collective unconscious of society.
Regrettably, the bot program's prediction proved accurate and the Twin Towers
fell on 9/11/2001.
Here's where it starts to become very interesting. The bot program also
predicts a worldwide calamity-taking place in the year 2012. For those of you
who study astrology, prophecies, and the like, you may already be familiar with
this date.
The Mayans were considered by many as great "seers" and built a
society that focused its studies on time, synchronicity, and consciousness. The
Mayan calendar predicts that mankind will end in the year 2012. A
period which also signifies the end of the current era in the Mayan calendar.
But this end may represent a symbolic end - more so than a literal end. An end
that refers to a shift in consciousness, such as a
societal shift into a spiritual age from a scientific one.
Many have derived similar predictions from the I Ching or China's
"Book of Changes." The I Ching was written in 2800 B.C. and is
revered to this day in China. A gentlemen by the name of Terrence McKenna studied
the I Ching intensely and began to see a pattern emerging. From that pattern he
produced a time line graph and called it the "Time Wave Zero"
theory.
Terrence's time line derived from the I Ching ended in the year 2012 - December
21, 2012 to be exact. The winter solstice.
Even more intriguing is the fact that many suggest that there is scientific
evidence that points to a very rare astrological occurrence taking place the
year of 2012. For millennia, the Mayans believed in the existence of a dark
rift in the center of the Milky Way and considered it fact. Only recently did
modern scientists discover that it
actually does exist.
Many exist; however, in the center of our galaxy is a black hole. And
in the year 2012, it is suggested that the sun and the earth will be in direct
alignment with this black hole. Scientist speculates that magnetic shifts could
take place as a result. In essence, it is theorized that the poles could
reverse. The poles have shifted before and Einstein, himself, had suggested
this pole shifting theory in 1955.
And I'm sure many of you have heard of Merlin the magician. Merlin was believed
to be a Celtic shaman that many of his day considered a "crazed man of the
forest." As a result, during those times he was referred to as
"Merlin the Wild." But what many don't realize is that Merlin was
considered Europe's greatest oracle or "seer."
Merlin predicted that the planets will "run riot" through the
constellations (Completely off their normal paths of rotation). Scientists speculate
that if this were to happen, it would be a result of the earth changing it's
rotation - or the poles shifting.
Merlin also predicted that the use of "talking stones" would be
taking place during this time. For those of you who don't know, stone is the
basis of our modern technology. Quartz in particular, Quartz technology is used
in cell phones as well as computers. Silicone quartz stores information that
can then be retrieved.
Another interesting side note to this that I will be discussing in
an upcoming post, is the use of quartz by the Mayans. The Mayans coveted
what were known as the crystal
skulls. Skulls carved from natural quartz crystal. They claimed the skulls
"talked" to them and gave them information. Could it be that they
actually did? Based on our knowledge of the capabilities of quartz crystal and
it's uses for
technology - it seems quite possible. Hewlett Packard studied the skulls in
1970 and their results
were startling.
The oldest tribe in the United States, the Hopi Indian tribe, believed that the
world has been created and destroyed four times previously. The Hopi's believe
that we are on the brink of the Fifth World. They predicted that this
occurrence would be preceded by submersion (rising waters), the sun getting
hotter (global warming), and earth occurrences (hurricane's, tornadoes, and
mass flooding).
The Hopi's also predicted that the world at this time would be criss-crossed by
a spider web, which could be likened to the Internet. They believed that the beginning
of the Fifth World would follow the end of the Fourth World. The evolution of
life requires violence.
Seems that these beliefs are in line with the predictions made from one of the
greatest book of prophecies ever written - the Bible (the Book of Revelations,
in particular).
The History
Channel created a special that touches on this very subject titled: Doomsday
2012, The End of Days. It further explores the significance of this date in
ancient prophecies, texts, and writings.
|
Post #63
|
|
Keep in mind that the important day in the Bots is: October 7, 2008.
Feet on the ground and head in the clouds... Love is an
intelligent |
|
Sep 3 2008, 11:40 PM Post #66
|
|
Notes from Cliff of the
Webbots on Jeff Rense 9-2-08.
Feet on the ground and head in the clouds... Love is an
intelligent |
Web Bot Report Foresees October 7 "Turning Point"
Posted by PIMPIN TURTLE at 9/8/2008
3:54 AM and is filed under Technology,Pimpin Turtle,Latest News,Weird,other stuff 
PIMPIN
TURTLE
Quoting:
Anonymous
Coward 466070
"[OK
- found a quick summary here of what Cliff had to say on the Jeff Rense show.
This came from a 'prophecy' forum.
Re: The Web Bots
Reply #157 - Today at 11:08:32
Fellow Texan George Ure's buddy Cliff whom heads up the Web Bot Project was on
the Jeff Rense Radio Show on September 2. Here are a few important topics Cliff
spoke about that the Web Bots have uncovered:
The Web Bots see September 22-27, 2008 as precursor dates to the main turning
point date of October 7, 2008. Closely watch events during September 22-27,
2008 for hints as to what to expect on October 7, 2008.
Cliff said whenever "it" happens, and whatever "it" turns
out to be, "it" will be a date in history you remember like 9/11, we
will remember 10/7.
The Web Bots foresee that October 7, 2008 to February 19, 2008 will be filled
with emotional intensity, and the length of the release period will be extraordinary.
The Web Bots have never picked up any event lasting this long. In comparison,
9/11 length lasted about 10 days. This event will be four months of high
emotion.
The Web Bots foresee consumer society collapsing by mid November 2008.
The Web Bots foresee a West Coast/Vancouver area large scale earthquake around
December 12, 2008.
The Web Bots foresee that the Winter in the Northeast will be very cold this
Winter, causing some schools to close, and then later to reopen as shelters for
people who can't heat their homes. Language suggests that the shortage will
either be caused by supply, cost of fuel, or both.]"
Can not Sleep due to October 7, 2008
Financial Collapse:
By:
George Ure
WEB.BOT
Project
Sunday Thoughts:
August 31, 2008
From today, we've got 37 days, if the predictive
linguistics are right, to the next point in this timeline when life will go
through a major shift - just as the major tipping point in early September of
2001 has had a lasting (and arguably negative) impact on the lives of most of
the planet. As of now, it's probably (based on the fledgling science of
predictive linguistics) coming in early October. Say around the 7th, as
I've mentioned in the past. A collapse of one of the 'too big to fail' banks and a lockup of international
markets! A Herstatt nightmare going
global. And no matter how bad the October headlines get, I'm saying as
clearly as I can and far in advance "it's all too pat." War is
Big Business in spades. So, up early
this morning working on checklists and how to deal with life thereafter for
Peoplenomics.com subscribers.
Along the way though, some serious events that are
worth of note as they fit in so closely with the concept of 'urban survival.'
One of these is the report out of the UK today that Lehman
Brothers is in urgent talks to try and drum up a capital injection.
In case you missed it, after the close on Friday, Integrity
Bank failed down Alpharetta Georgia way. This is a fair-sized bank -
about a billion in assets. This is expected to eat through another
$250-million to $350-million of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s dough,
which in turn came from where? You guessed it: nice upstanding
report-every-dime taxpayers like you and me. It's getting so anyone with
an ounce of economic wit, ought to be afraid as hell of Fridays after the
close.
---
I've explained for subscribers, but it bears
repeating: The danger in all these bank failures is not just the
potential for depositors to lose their shirts and savings. If that were
the case, the Feds would likely be upset, but not nearly as worried about
'systemic integrity'.
The real problem that crops up is the whole notion
of cascading bank failures.' The way this scenario paints out is very
simple. Picture all the banks in the world as being players sitting in a
gigantic circle, each bank having a pile of receivables from their bank on the
right and owing a bunch of payables to the bank of their left.
These inter-bank obligation instruments, have tow
kinds of values. One in a 'notional value' and the other is an 'actual
value'. They are derivatives and other piles of paper debt that have
previously been taken at face value. But, all that is now changing.
The problem THE WHOLE WORLD has is that if the
orderly transfer of dough from the players to the right - to the player in the
middle - to the player on the left (in a manner of speaking) seizes up, there
will be NO MORE FINANCIAL WORLD as we know it today. Pure and simple.
All it takes is just one bank to renounce its
'turn' and suddenly the whole global economic system can lock up. In
other words, there is no way for the floating craps game that is the
global derivatives and debt market to act in an adaptive manner because the
underlying instruments are so horribly complex. You might have a pile of
this kind of pseudo-bond (let's say a collection of mortgages) that was paying
'x' interest, and you decide to swap ownership of thatr for something that will
pay you a spread and that in turn is based on some other piece of paper or
variable rate on some exchange somewhere.
You should be getting the picture that everything is
stitched together in a manner that makes it impossible to move positions
about. You can just 'move' the whole world financial system around to
accommodate the needs of a few players because underlying the global financial
systems is a global pile of 'lawyer-drafted contracts' which would make your
head spin. There is no way all that 'paper asset' and 'paper debt' legal
work to be rewritten every couple of weeks (and becoming more regular lately,
and becoming the norm this fall) fast enough to keep global economic
collapse at bay.
---
The world came close to a financial meltdown in
1974. You need to devote a few minutes to read a couple of short
Wikipedia entries here: One is about the failure of Herstatt Bank
in Germany in 1974 which brought the world to the abyss. The second is
about 'settlement risk'
which is the source of the lockup problem.
Herstatt Bank
From Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Herstatt
Bank is a privately owned bank in the German city of Cologne. It went bankrupt on
26 June 1974 in a famous
incident illustrating settlement risk in international finance.
On June 26, 1974, German
regulators forced the troubled Bank Herstatt into liquidation. That day, a
number of banks had released payment of DEM to Herstatt in Frankfurt in
exchange for USD that was to be delivered in New York. Because of time-zone
differences, Herstatt ceased operations between the times of the respective
payments. The counterparty banks did not receive their USD payments.
Responding to the
cross-jurisdictional implications of the Herstatt debacle, the G-10 countries (the G-10 is actually eleven
countries: Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden,
Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States) and Luxembourg formed a
standing committee under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements
(BIS). Called the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the committee
comprises representatives from central banks and regulatory authorities. This
type of settlement risk, in which one party in a foreign exchange trade pays
out the currency it sold but does not receive the currency it bought, is
sometimes called Herstatt risk.
To summarize, how would you feel if I said to you
"Oh, I'm guessing 45-75 days until we hit one of these 'settlement risk'
problems? That'd be where Bank A fails to pay Bank B, so B, owing money
to Bank C doesn't have the dough to pay up, and so the whole failure
propagates. Not just to the mahogany foxholes at the next bank - I mean
globally, such that banks won't have money to load up ATM's and things like
that. Sucks to be a banker lately.
I first learned about this notion back in the mid
1970's when the late Dr.
Paul Erdman explained the problem over a two martini lunch at the old
Trader Vic's in Seattle. The Herstatt Effect, as the German failure
because known in banking circles, was one of the underlying research points in
his book "The Crash '79". However, any of his other financial
novels, "The Billion Dollar Sure Thing", and "The
Silver Bears" are all equally entertaining, but more important, they
will help you soak up some serious financial understanding that you won't find
today even in many grad schools.
The Herstatt Effect is the ugly duckling, or should I say Taleb's
Black Swan, that underlies things like the Lehman gone fishing for
capital story. If you are just sitting around this weekend doing
nothing, I'd suggest that if you've got even a half ounce of awareness going
you'd find some way to change things around in your life so when whatever's
coming gets here, you'll be ready for it...
Settlement risk
From Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Settlement
risk is the risk that a counterparty does not deliver a security or its value
in cash as per agreement when the security was traded after the other counterparty
or counterparties have already delivered security or cash value as per the trade agreement.
One form of settlement
risk is so-called Herstatt risk, which is the settlement risk resulting
from different legs of a transaction settling in different time zones (or more
generally, in different settlement systems where netting is not possible).
Herstatt risk exists primarily (but not exclusively) in foreign exchange
transactions and cross-currency swap transaction.
The term Herstatt
risk follows from a famous incident on June 26, 1974, in which the German Herstatt
bank was closed due to insolvency during German banking hours, but before
the start of US banking hours. As a result, the bank failed to make payment on
the US dollar legs of foreign exchange transactions even where it had already
received the deutschmark payments on such transactions.
How Mad Is Russia?
If you remember the Friday "Hot Back
Story" on Georgia, the story may be getting legs as there's a report - and
a disturbing one indeed - that "Russian 'Sleeper' Agents
Begin 'Day X' Attacks in U.S."
Some history of the 'Day X' plans can be found here.
We should get a prequel of what's coming on October
7th or thereabout - sure as hell hope it's not the 'Day X' kind of
thing. A simple global meltdown of the economy would be bad enough, but
as I've written before, a war to hide financial crimes/excesses may have been
behind 9/11 so no telling what this is going to be. 40% military, 50%
economic and 20% Terra entity in modelspace - and we expect first look at the
current predictive linguistics run just past mid-week.
August 29, 2008
Georgia - One Hot
"Back Story'
the threat of War over the events in Georgia
continues to build. Russia according to the Voice of America site (which
is very pro Western business model) is headlining "Russia: G7
Condemnation over Georgia Shows 'Bias'". Gee, yah think?
Meantime, one of our 'well-placed sources' sent
along this report today which we don't have independent confirmation of yet, so
take this with a grain of salt:
Hello George,
I know that you will add a wimpy disclaimer, if you
publish this, and I understand that you are no longer living in the country, in
which you and I were born. However, this information should get wider
circulation than it will ever get in the main stream media.
Russian forces are still holding 12 of 22 Georgian
servicemen taken prisoner in Poti last week, including two Yemini Jews,
disguised as Arabs. On one of these, Russian military intelligence
interrogators found a packet of reports, wrapped in plastic and taped to the
man's back. This packet consisted of 'the highest level security matters.'
This concerned the ongoing plan to base Israeli
fighter-bombers at Marneuli military airbase, 20 kilometers south of Tbilisi
and that these aircraft were intended for a special air raid on the Iranian
capital city of Tehran. It was originally felt that six aircraft were to be
utilized, three attacking the city itself and three to attack targeted Iranian
oil facilities.
The captured Israeli's papers, all written in
Hebrew, when translated by the Russian GRU turned out to be somewhat different
in nature. While one flight was indeed intended to attack various Iranian oil
facilities, the second flight was planned to drop chemical warfare bombs on
Tehran. These bombs, which were designed to blow open at a set altitude, were
filled with weapons-grade anthrax and this anthrax, kept in a specially sealed
box at the U.S. diplomatic offices in Tiblisi, came from Fr. Detrick in
Maryland and their shipment had the approval of the President himself. Another
twist to the bizarre plot was that the aircraft, made in the United States,
were to have their Israeli marking masked with American markings and that these
markings were to be applied in a water-based paint that could easily be hosed
off when this flight returned to Georgia.
When the Russians learned of this, they immediately
notified their Embassy in Tehran and subjected their Yemeni Israeli to what
they called 'intensive interrogation,' not unlike the CIA's Bush-mandated
torture. In this case, the 'subject expired' but not before revealing more of
the joint Israeli-US activity.
In an abstract sense, the Russian counter attack on
Georgia indirectly saved the lives of many thousands of Iranians.
The Americans, apparently, were totally unaware of
the Israeli false flag portion of the operation. Had the BW attack been
successful, the question arises as to whether the American military command
would ever discuss any aspect of it. If any of the falsely-marked Israeli
aircraft had been seen and wrongly identified as American, there would be
heated denials and the matter would quickly be shoved under the carpet by the
American media.
By the way, though I disagree with your use of wimpy
disclaimers, I understand your perceived necessity of disassociating yourself
from the promotion of revolution, for which one could possibly be charged with
treason. Peaceful resistance, however, is still legal in Amerika and I advocate disorganized
resistance, a method taught to me by the same people who have trained your
brother-in-law.
Now that's a dynamite accusation, so I wrote back to
see if I could get some detailed sourcing from my source:
"I "float", daily, around the United
Nations in Geneva. Whenever there is a media story, there is always a back
story, which is kept from the media but circulated within the halls. I can not
state that this info comes from the ******* but the **** in Geneva, has the
best intelligence network in the world. You also need to understand that state
players gossip and engage in "shoptalk" constantly. We are all there
to gather or dispense info.
The scuttlebutt is that Russia will be releasing the
translations of the original Hebrew docs, as well as the American shipping
docs, shortly.
This is why Olmert rushed to Moscow for damage
control."
Remember, this is the scuttlebutt going on at the UN
in Geneva.
However, what's clear is that Israel continues to
harden its position on Iran with headlines today that "Israel had
decided: Iran will not have nukes".
And all of this compounds as we lurch forward to the
October 7th date identified in the predictive linguistics work at www.halfpasthuman.com as when we'll
slide into events that will dwarf 9/11 in terms of emotive values though
at least mid January 2009.
And say, with all this intrigue going on, you don't
suppose that FAA IFR flight plan computing error this week was a little
back-channel messaging from the Russians to the US, do you? The "FAA
points finger at switch for server crash" is the latest... wonder what
the IP address of the switch was?
Might want to have an eye on computer systems just
in case they become a 'message channel'. OK, so not as robust or
reliable as the order wire channel in MIL-STD-188-141A
FS-1045-1051, but what if we start seeing ATM Drop out? Oh and that
reminds me to mention:
Cost of Bank Failures
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may have to borrow money to see it through
the expected wave of bank failures. Now, I'm just a dime-store MBA here,
but the People's Economist is scratching his head wondering about the
use of the term borrow; like it's ever going to be paid back?
October 7th Watch: You
Know You're In Trouble When...
While most of the MainStreamMedia hypnotized public
was feeding on the pabulum pushed out by the PowersThatBe-owned 'state media'
there were numerous indications going on Sunday afternoon that news events were
being pushed as much by the actual events surrounding Gustav, as the need for
the PTB to keep things from falling part for two more weeks. Fortunately,
having access to the predictive linguistics reports out of HalfPastHuman.com, I
already expect relative order until September 15th because shortly thereafter,
and centered around October 7th, we're due to start The Big Slide to
Transformation which will happen between now and March of next year.
Still, there was almost a sense of either panic, (Or, was it disbelief?) as my
broker called to say "There's a special Sunday trading session in energy
due to the hurricane..." I know, you're thinking to yourself,
"hmmm...that's odd..." Yup,
sure was...yet here's the story bigger than life. And close on the heels
of the change in margin requirements installed Friday (oh, what a coincidence,
eh?) With the Dollar on life support (and a hit of meth lately) it
shouldn't come as a surprise.. My broker had never heard of a special Sunday
session before, but then again, he's only been in the game 20-some years.
But not to worry, seems we're not the only ones worried about the end of the
month and then October 7th-ish events to follow. The predictive linguistics hold not only one
more major bank failure, but a financial 'lockdown' condition as the year goes
on, and that many companies are 'blurring the lines' a bit when they talk about
their sales. The
real headline in the linguistics is the prospect of a financial 'lock-up' which
could come along about November or so, the results of the events presently
building. Remember the linguistic work says the October 7th 'pile-on' of
things will be about 40% economic in nature, which is enough for us to be
considering plans to cope with a financial meltdown/lock-up outcome.
August Market Crash in Terms of 1987 and Solar
Lunar Eclipse
BearSmith - Mon, Jul 21, 2008 - 02:19 AM
Steve Puetz found
that most of the major
market crashes have happened around the PUETZ window, which is 6 days
ahead/behind the full moon within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse. This effect is
magnified when the full moon is also a lunar eclipse.
Chris Carolan
found striking similarities between the 29, 87, and other crashes in terms of
lunar calenders and the distance between the initial high, low, final failed
rally, and crash.
Looks to me like
we could be in a bit of an 87 pattern here with a similar drop to this point,
temp bottom, bounce/retrace, final failed rally, then crash. I'm just putting
two and two together here from the work of the above as well as my own.
The 87 crash also had a solar eclipse going
into the final failed rally - so do we at this point (8/1) and there's a
combined full moon and lunar eclipse 8/16. The crashes of 87 & 29 also had
solar eclipse and then a full moon/lunar eclipse at the crash or close thereby.
So, not only do
we have a 3:3:3 coming in Elliott Wave terms, but we're also poised to break
under a very important 1200 (actually 1170), and we now have a similar setup to
1987 in terms of recent price movement and the solar/full moon/lunar eclipse
events pending.
Man is this
interesting. The one primary thing to realize here is that all this is
happening ahead of the normal October crash month, and with the last leg of
this decline initiating in May, it appears its going to be early this year,
which will keep everyone (except WSBers) off guard.
You'll notice that 8/01 is the last solar eclipse
of 2008 and thus, August 10 - 22 is the final PUETZ window of
the year!
If the market
continues to match the 1987 pattern from this point forward, you may see one
more day bounce (or not), then about a 3 - 5 day drop to retest the lows, and
then climb into the new month 8/1 or 8/2 and potentially beyond. In 1987,
market rallied for 8 days beyond the solar eclipse. That would be 8/8 in our
terms and probably a target between 1296 and 1310, if the pattern of being a
week behind & 2 months ahead of the 1987 pattern holds.
I would probably
plan to be mostly back in by 8/1 (about 85%- I'm 55% in now) and let some calls
ride up to potentially 8/8 if she doesn't drop before hand.
Check out the
chart of the 1987 SnP with the eclipses and full moon/lunar eclipse plotted
with the new month 10/1 also shown. You can relate it to our progress with the
solar eclipse due 8/1 and lunar eclipse due 8/16.
Sure looks a
little too similar to be a coincidence at this point in time/price in the SnP.
BearSmith
Image #1:
RBS issues global stock and
credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:19am BST 19/07/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised
clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets
over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob
Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall
Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by
September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses
of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging
markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to
one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
· RBS
alert: Quotes from the report
· Fund
managers react to RBS alert
· Support
for the euro is in doubt
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade
corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of
lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on
the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter.
If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical
defensive names.
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"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money,
and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after
his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little
further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost
begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their
damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk
putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that
point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central
Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest
and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy
money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels
that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to
see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
· Morgan
Stanley warns of catastrophe
· More
comment and analysis from the Telegraph
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive
credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when
they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us
a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said
Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest
data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on
raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be
substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB.
Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem
assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price
spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next
year.
World about to
get hit by an 80-year economic tsunami!
Besides the usual cast of characters around here,
I've been blessed with Jim Goulding's expertise. His website is an
absolute goldmine of things to think about when you step back and look at the
long-term direction of the economy. It's not too often that Jim updates his
'predictions' page, but he has this week, and it's a dandy read:
"For the first time since I began predicting
the rise in the DJIA, I’m very nervous. Before, I could state without a doubt,
that the DJIA was going higher. However, as I wrote in my last update, the
closer we get to the crash, the harder it is to predict. So, I must look at
some of my original thoughts about what moves the markets, what I’ve learned in
the last six-years, and the triggers that send our economy into 80-year cycles.
Personally, I’ve been struggling emotionally with
the downturn in the economy because I know that, August 2007, was the beginning
of what I call the 3-year warning (more on that later). The point is that I’ve
written several times that regardless of where the DJIA is, in late 2008, I
really have to think about getting out of the market. Said differently, if the
DJIA doesn’t hit 35k and it’s late 2008, forget about the 35k prediction and
take things as they come…look at getting out. I’ll cover the ‘why’ in this
update. Lastly, when I say I’m struggling emotionally, I mean it. This is so
depressing. I never wanted the prediction of the economy crashing to come true,
yet, it is. I think of all the people (99%) in this country (and around the
world) who don’t have a clue that they are about to get hit by an 80-year
economic tsunami. In America, most think they’ll be bailed out. Not this time.
Let’s get to the analytics and put emotions away.
Let’s go back to some of my original conclusions about what leads the economy
to an 80-year crash. (By the way, this is a macro-science. It may be 80 years,
it may be 85. That’s what makes it so difficult to nail-it as its happening.)
The single largest catalyst for the US economy
moving into an 80-year cycle (massive slowing, crash, whatever you want to call
it) is the line-up of the generations. That ‘line-up’ took place in 2003 (see my free book, Winter is Coming,
chapter 3, for further explanation). So, I can conclude, that catalyst is
in place.
Another catalyst is an economic event that hits the
economy hard but doesn’t push it into a depression. Something similar to the
1926 Florida real estate crash, or, the August 2007 subprime crash. The
similarities between the crashes and the era are very similar. What’s on
everyone’s mind now, in 2008, is “was the August 2007 crash the beginning of
the meltdown?” That’s the same thing folks were asking in 1926. The answer is…’Yes
it is the beginning, but there’s still time to get out on a rally, like there
was in 1926, 1927, and 1928, before the larger problems set into the economy. What
I know right now is that the August 2007 subprime crash is a catalyst, and that
catalyst is in place.
Go read Jim's book "Winter is
Coming." A last fake out inflation surge, and then a deflationary
collapse - not the stuff to be taken lightly, but if your financial advisor
doesn't have a plan for both eventualities, you might want to buy some broader
advise.
8500 US Banks Many Will Die Soon
July
21st, 2008
How bad is this going to get?
Bear Stearns got bailed out ‘cause they were highly
visible (read: failure would have exposed aforementioned funny money to the
average Joe), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are Government Sponsored Entities who
now have their sickly balance sheets backstopped by the U.S. Treasury (read you
& me), but all the commercial banks have is the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation.
Great! All accounts are insured to $100,000! We’re
saved!
Way wrong. The FDIC is an insurance operation. They
make an educated guess as to how many banks will fail and what the total
exposure is, then they collect insurance premiums from them. They’ve got $51
billion … and Indymac alone sucked up 10% of that. If a big one lets go, like
Washington Mutual or Wachovia, then the FDIC will look just like FEMA did
facing down hurricane Katrina. Don’t go and look at the scoreboard on the Bank
Implode-O-Meter unless you’ve got a very strong stomach. Oh, and do note that a
good bit of those write downs are investment banks - the FDIC does not cover
their activities.
OK, very scared now, so what do I do?
Run, don’t walk, to your bank and get the
funds you have clear of this mess before it gets any worse. The safe deposit
box … isn’t. There were rules during the Great Depression such that a treasury
agent got to paw through any that were opened before the owner got to touch
their stuff; gold, silver, and cash could easily be confiscated in an
emergency.
So, what to do? Cash at home in the First Bank of
Serta? A fire proof safe? Maybe cashier’s checks in your name and leave the
receipts in the safe deposit box, thusly meeting the portability requirement
with safety? Nope on that last one, cashier’s checks drawn on a dead bank are dead.
Treasury Bills? Wow, look at the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout … they’ll
not go *poof* instantly, but they’re going down in value bigtime. Swiss bank
account? Hey, look at that first salvo in making sure dollars in the U.S. stay
in the U.S.
OK, terrified, what do I do?
The GSEs, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are indeed “too
big to fail” – they’d whack the whole U.S. economy if they went down hard.
Ditto for Bear Stearns – had they not moved to conceal the troubles there the
failure would have sucked all of the monoline bond insurers under. Monoline
bond insurers? If you don’t know I’ve laid enough pain down in this diary – we’ll
cover that mess another day. 8,500 commercial banks, putatively protected by
the FDIC? Only a few are large enough to receive the “too big to fail” label.
The government doesn’t dare touch the FDIC (yet) for fear of clearly
communicating they expect the worst. A lot of folks got trimmed in the Indymac
crash, with $BIGBUCKS reset to the $100,000 maximum and no recourse. Once this
truly gets rolling there will be a reduction in the amounts covered and
probably withdrawal limits even with solvent banks.
This cannot be stopped. The losses have
already occurred. It isn’t an “if”, it’s a “when” and I was expecting it around
4/1/2008, but they held it off for another quarter. It looks for all the world
like July is the lucky month with the Indymac stuff coming down right next to
Fannie and Freddie’s corpses hitting the mighty U.S. Treasury Reanimator.
Someone, somewhere is going to pull a joker out of this house of cards – some
innocuous bond sale somewhere will fail, a monoline insurer will get pushed
over the edge, and then the rout will begin.
The Ginormous Banking Enema has begun with
the first little squirt from Indymac Bancorp’s failure. It won’t end until we’re
all up to our nostrils in an alphabet soup of make believe financial
instruments and newly created federal agencies conceived to clean up the mess.
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