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The market's extreme volatility created many opportunities for profit this year, but the average newsletter still would have been better off simply sticking with whatever it was recommending on Jan. 1. Through Nov. 30, the frozen portfolios, on average, lost 8%, while the newsletters' actual portfolios declined by an average of 9.3%. (By comparison, the S&P 500 index produced a total return of negative 12.6%.) Like many of the rest of us, newsletter editors reacted too often to events, rather than keeping to their strategies. So, with the majority of other investors, they were tempted to sell in the wake of Sept. 11 and to buy each time the Fed lowered rates.
The weakness of the Japanese economy threatens all of Asia and the global economy. Japan's banks have bad debts of $600 billion, a sum equal to 18% of the country's GDP. The fear is that Japan will solve its debt problems by printing money, which would depreciate the yen. Steep devaluation would cause competitive devaluations in Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China, because those countries are linked to Japan through investment and trade. Devaluations in Asia would cause a great flood of low-priced goods onto world markets, hurting Latin America and other regions as well as industrial and farm producers in the United States. Fall-out from Falling Yen Leslie Norton, Barrons 12-31 The yen's weakness reduces the competitiveness of Japan's neighbors, strains economies with fixed exchange rates, threatens a spiral of competitive devaluation, and dims the luster of Asian investments for anybody keeping score in greenbacks. That's just for starters. Equally worrisome: The sliding yen hasn't revived Japan's moribund economy. Thus, China loudly called for Japan to do something about its currency last week, as the renminbi rose 10% against the yen in recent months. South Korea, meanwhile, said it would move decisively to prevent the negative fallout of a weak yen. Can calls from Malaysia be far away? The New Taiwan dollar, says Frank Gong, currency analyst at Bank of America, ought to slide to 37 or so if the yen falls to 135 to the dollar. Last week, each U.S. dollar fetched NT$35. But a slide in Taiwan's currency could stoke inflation and prevent the central bank from easing credit to revive demand. "The Hong Kong dollar will stay overvalued, the economy will go into deeper deflation, unemployment will stay high. Companies will have to cut prices. Profit margins will get squeezed. That will hit real estate and banks. The number of nonperforming loans will rise" predicts Gong. China faces rising unemployment, which it hopes to offset by boosting exports. Bank of America reckons that as the yen falls past 140 to the dollar, devaluation risk rises, as does the likelihood that China widens its currency trading bands next year.
Indeed, David Moskowitz, an analyst with investment bank and brokerage firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, expects annual sales for the generics industry to rise from $9.8 billion in 2000 to close to $20 billion by 2005. Of course, no bet is a sure thing. Generics makers routinely face time-consuming and expensive legal battles with major drug companies, who fight tooth-and-nail as their products go off patent. It's also imperative for generics companies to file first with the Food & Drug Administration to produce an off-patent drug, since that wins them an exclusive right to sell the generic version for six months - during which they'll reap most of the profits that drug will ever produce. Given the short exclusivity window for new generics, the most successful producers are the brawniest bulldogs in a dog-eat-dog world. That's a hint that investors should look for generics companies with a tough management team and the resources to battle big pharmaceutical companies in court. When it comes to strong pipelines, the world's largest generics maker, Teva Pharmaceutical, arguably is king. Matt Jenkin, senior managing analyst at Dreyfus, notes that Teva currently has 56 filings for generic drugs at the FDA. On 17 of those, it should have first-to-file status. Jenkin expects the company's earnings to rise 20% to 25% in 2002. In the first nine months of 2001, Teva posted earnings per share of $1.45 on revenues of $1.5 billion. At $58, which is well off its 52-week high of $76, and with a p-e ratio of 31 times 2001 earnings vs. an average p-e of about 34 for the group as a whole, Jenkin sees it as a good buying opportunity. Barr Labs has some 25 generic filings at the FDA, seven of which are expected to have first-to-file status. To insulate itself from competition, the company concentrates on drugs with a high barrier to entry. Barr Labs trades at around $78 per share with a p-e of 25 based on its anticipated earnings for 2001. Andrx Group has just 12 filings with the FDA, but half of those are expected to get first-to-file status. Andrx trades at around $70, or a p-e of 68 based on anticipated 2001 earnings. Old-Line Drug Stocks vs BioTechs Andrew Bary, WSJ 12-23 The major pharmaceutical companies generally have had a tough year, with Merck, Pharmacia and Schering-Plough down 25% or more. The big companies have been hurt by a series of problems, including the expiration of patents on some of their important drugs. In fact, patent woes figured in the recent predictions by Merck and Bristol-Myers of weak profit next year. But valuations on the major drug stocks are fairly reasonable by historical standards and are far below those of the large biotech issues. Merck, near $60, trades for 19 times projected 2002 profit and has a dividend yield of 2.3%. Merck has the lowest price/earnings multiple and highest dividend yield in the group. Bristol-Myers, at $52, commands 22 times estimated 2002 profit and yields 2.1%. Pfizer, at $41, has a higher valuation, trading for 26 times estimated 2002 profit. Many investors think Pfizer is worth a premium because it envisions at least 20% profit growth in 2002 and 15%-plus gains in both 2003 and 2004. In contrast, Amgen, the biotech leader, commands around 44 times projected 2002 earnings, while Genentech has a 2002 P/E around 60. The big biotechs are expected to experience faster growth than their conventional counterparts, but that prospect already could be reflected in biotech valuations. Old-Line vs BioTechs Part 2 Andrew Bary, Barron 12-24 Right now, the average major drug stock is trading at 24 times next year's expected earnings, about the same as the overall market. In contrast, the average biotech changes hands at 56 times next year's earnings. This gap in valuation is the largest since the biotech bubble in early 2000. It's also worth noting that the big drugs typically trade at a 20% premium to the price-to-earnings ratio of the market as a whole.
"In the space of a decade, older Americans have become more financially vulnerable," says Elizabeth Warren, a professor at Harvard Law School who is studying bankruptcy filings. "They have more years to provide for themselves and less assets to do it." Older people, on average, still owe less than their children and grandchildren. But it's harder for them to dig their way out of debt when medical problems arise or economic circumstances change. Heavy debt increases the chances they will outlive their money. As a new generation of Americans retires, values of thrift are being replaced by the free-spending attitudes of baby boomers. Like the rest of America, older people are increasingly using their homes as piggy banks. Nearly one in four elderly households had mortgages or other home loans in 1999, the last year for which data are available, according to the Census Bureau. That's up from 18% a decade earlier. The median amount of principal owed rose 86% to $33,133 during the period. With interest rates near record lows, many people in their 50s and 60s have jumped on the mortgage-refinancing boom, even though it means they may not pay off their new mortgages until they are in their 80s or 90s, if ever. At Wells Fargo, people 51 and older account for more than one-quarter of customers who refinanced their mortgages during the first nine months of this year. Roughly half of them took out loans with 30-year terms. Close to half took cash out or arranged for a home-equity loan when they refinanced. "I've been counseling my clients over 50 never to pay their mortgage off," says financial planner Doug Thorne. "Interest is so cheap, that after you factor in tax deductibility, it's better not to pay back the principal." Another Burden for Retirees Jeff Opdyke, WSJ 12-26 While a stock-market decline is painful for everybody, younger people saving for retirement actually benefit because they can buy shares cheaper. Likewise, the drop in interest rates this year has been a boon for many younger Americans who have been refinancing their mortgages in record numbers to slice their payments. But lower rates are a different story for retirees who depend on fixed-income instruments for money to live on. Just last year, many retirees thought they had squirreled away ample funds to see them through to the end. But they are being squeezed by the combination of falling stock prices and falling interest rates. One-year certificates of deposit now pay an average of 2.73%, down from 5.5% a year earlier. Low rates are a huge issue for retirees. More than 60% of the money in CDs is held by people over 60 years old, according to SRI Consulting Business Intelligence. By comparison, people aged 30 to 39 hold just 7% of such deposits.
Examples On Oct. 27, six days after the U.S. escalated the bombing of Taliban front lines, National Public Radio senior news analyst Daniel Schorr was pessimistic, saying that "this is a war in trouble". The New York Times's R.W. Apple Jr. compared the war in Afghanistan to the U.S. experience in Vietnam, saying "signs of progress are sparse". "There does not appear to be a political force capable of replacing the Taliban," said staff editorial writer Jacob Heilbrunn in the Los Angeles Times on Nov. 4. The pessimism was striking in an Oct. 18 article in WSJ. "Opposition Afghan leaders trying to fashion an anti-Taliban uprising say U.S.-led bombing has seriously undermined their efforts," the article began, going on to say: "Instead of a thankful Afghan population, popular support for the Taliban appears to be solidifying and anger with the U.S. growing. And rather than a relatively quick Taliban collapse, the U.S. may have to settle for continued governance by the movement, perhaps shorn of its top two or three leaders." What follows are five of the most pervasive myths that permeated discussion of the battle for Afghanistan in newspapers and on TV and radio. Myth #1: History repeats itself. The failure of British and Soviet excursions into Afghanistan spells doom for American involvement, too. The U.S., as it did in Vietnam, will get bogged down in a quagmire, struggling on unfamiliar terrain to fight nimble guerrilla forces. "Now, like the British and Russians before him, [President Bush] is facing the most brutish, corrupt, wily and patient warriors in the world, nicknamed dukhi, or ghosts, by flayed Russian soldiers who saw them melt away," wrote Maureen Dowd on Oct. 28 in her New York Times column on the op-ed page. A few days later, Mr. Heilbrunn in the Los Angeles Times declared the first round of the war a failure: "The United States is not headed into a quagmire; it's already in one." Myth #2: The Taliban regime is popular. With support in the countryside, especially among the southern Pashtuns, the Taliban can call on an army imbued with religious fervor. Because the Taliban brought law and order, the populace embraced the regime's restrictions. In the weekly New York Observer of Nov. 19, freelance columnist Nicholas von Hoffman wrote "We are mapless, we are lost, and we are distracted by gusts of wishful thinking," to believe Afghans would switch sides so easily. The week the column appeared, gleeful Kabul residents shaved their beards and displayed posters of Indian movie stars to show their delight in being rid of the Taliban. Myth #3: High-altitude bombing won't work. There are too few targets. And bombing could turn major cities into death-traps for special-operation forces. William Arkin, an NBC News military analyst and former Army intelligence analyst, went on CNBC on Oct. 10 and told Mr. Rivera: "I think sooner or later we're going to have to bite the bullet and get in there in a big way or we're going to have to admit some kind of a defeat." Given that neither of the two leaders has been captured more than three months after Sept. 11, Mr. Arkin says his critique is still appropriate. Myth #4: The Afghans will make bad allies. The ragtag Northern Alliance, which controls only 10% of the country through a loose and fractious affiliation of tribal leaders, won't be able to unite and fight the Taliban. In addition, the antipathy between tribes from the north and south will keep them from forming a unified administration. The New Republic on Nov 19 in an unsigned editorial: "Of all the proxies the United States has enlisted over the past half-century, the Northern Alliance may be the least prepared to attain America's battlefield objectives." Myth #5: The Muslim world will boil over. The U.S. will outrage Muslims the world over and cause the masses to rise up, toppling leaders like Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf. The furor will also send the Persian Gulf states into turmoil. President Bush's comments about capturing Mr. bin Laden "dead or alive" will only deepen the anger. What are the real-world consequences of the campaign, asked columnist Katha Pollitt, in the Nov. 19 issue of the Nation. "Thousands of new Taliban fans and recruits for anti-American suicide missions? A protracted war with a determined, hardy foe that draws in Central Asia, enrages the Muslim masses and destabilizes Pakistan or Indonesia or another country to be named later?" In an Oct. 15 commentary on National Public Radio's "All Things Considered," Mr. Schorr, the senior news analyst, said, "Whatever success the Anglo-American alliance is having pounding the Taliban into dust, it's having little success winning the hearts and minds of Islamic peoples." He noted anti-American rioting from Nigeria to Indonesia. "I had to eat a little crow," Mr. Schorr says in an interview. "I have never been in Afghanistan and know nothing about Pashtuns and the rest of it."
Levy thinks at least two of the three trends have to reverse for tech to begin growing again. How difficult is that? First, nontech concerns have to regain their health, so that they will have profits to invest in tech gear. Historically, tech spending remains sluggish for more than a year after the national economy starts to recover, according to Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, who analyzed seven economic downturns since 1968. The pattern seems likely to repeat. Precursor President Bill Whyman notes that more than one-third of tech spending comes from two industries - financial services and communications - that are hurting badly. Pip Coburn, global-technology strategist at UBS Warburg, thinks nontech executives are psychologically scarred by their huge tech outlays during the late 1990s and 2000, not all of which seem to have paid off. He thinks it will take at least six months after a profits rebound before company tech managers "start asking for money." Semiconductor factories are running at 60% of capacity, the lowest level since 1975. After looking across the tech supply chain, Merrill Lynch analyst Jerry Labowitz estimates that inventories are still about 13%, or $5 billion, higher than typical for the past decade. Idle factories and excessive inventories mean tech prices will continue falling abnormally fast, suggesting that any uptick in demand won't quickly translate into more revenue, or profit, for tech companies. Without a tech rebound, it's very hard to see what's going to be the driver for recovery next year. Another Missing 'Driver' Jonathan Fuerbringer, NY Times 12-23 Housing starts surged 8.2% in November. That surge could help explain why a recovery may not be as swift as many investors have hoped. Housing starts jumped to an annual rate of 1.645 million in November. Unusually good weather, however, caused some of that increase and could also give housing starts another lift in December. More important, the gains mean that housing starts have not suffered in this recession and have no trough to surge from - so they cannot fuel an economic recovery as they have in the past. In the 1990-91 recession, housing starts plunged 48.5% in 12 months, to an annual rate of 798,000 in January 1991, then climbed by 51.6% over the next two years. Without a sharp decline to rally from, and with mortgage rates rising with Treasury interest rates, "it doesn't make much sense to talk of a housing-led recovery," said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at Hoenig & Company. The average weekly rate on 30-year mortgages nationally is now 7.17%, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.45% in early November. A Substitute 'Driver' Barbara Costanza, CBS.MarketWatch 12-21 There have been two changes since Sept. 11 that may make for a sharper recovery," says Alexander P. Paris, economic analyst for Barrington Research. The terrorist attacks contributed to a much sharper consumer cutback, another surge in capital spending declines and even more inventory liquidation. That leads Paris to believe that the stage is set for a more energetic beginning to the economic recovery. Secondly, as a result of the attacks, both monetary and fiscal stimulus has been substantially notched higher. "You put it all together it's probably the biggest stimulus since World War II," Paris said.
Enterprise value is the stock-market value of a publicly traded company, plus its long-term debt minus cash. One way to think of it is to consider your home. If you have $100,000 of equity and a $300,000 mortgage, Wall Street might say the house's enterprise value is $400,000. Ebitda is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - basically, a company's operating cash flow. Analysts believe Ebitda can give a better sense of the cash a business is generating than net income or raw revenue can. Taxes and interest expense don't tell you about the core business, so they're tossed aside. So are depreciation and amortization, accounting items unrelated to real cash flow. Think of the EV/Ebitda ratio as a company's takeover value relative to its cash flow. A low ratio indicates a company might be undervalued by the market amid a rough patch. It also may suggest that a company is a ripe takeover target.
Anyway, assume that Georgia power plants are not being fully utilized, while power demand exceeds capacity in California. Physical limitations make it economically unjustified to ship power from Georgia to California. All the power plants in between are fully utilized. For a fee, an energy trading desk might get a Mississippi plant to buy some Georgia power if Mississippi is assured that it can sell the additional power to Texas. Texas will do the same if it can sell to New Mexico and earn a fee. The process continues until the power arrives in California. The fees are welcomed by the intervening power plants, Georgia's capacity is more heavily utilized, and California, at some expense, gets the power it needs. This works because the energy trader guarantees payment to the intervening power companies. These energy trading activities (by Enron, Calpine, Dynegy, Mirant and Williams) use substantial amounts of short-term debt instruments to finance their activities. These companies also build pipelines, power plants, gas and oil fields, and other assets to support their activities. To the uninitiated, and possibly in the actual case of Enron, this appears to be short-term borrowing supporting long-term assets.
Merrill Lynch Internet Strategies, Strong Internet, and countless other failed Internet. A single industry is too narrow to support good management over the long run. Short-term results can be astonishing - which is why so many funds were started - but most investors in these funds experienced only astounding losses. These funds leave us two lessons: When the marketplace rushes to start funds for a narrow industry, it's probably time to invest elsewhere. And triple-digit gains are wonderful, but only if you live them. If you read about them in ads or a prospectus, you most likely will never get them. The StockJungle Community Intelligence Fund, which relied on chat rooms and message boards to pick investments. Like most community-run funds - a genre nearly extinct - this fund looked good until the market faded, at which point people realized that chatting about big losses isn't so much fun. The moral: You can have community or intelligence, but not both. OpenFund, a fund based entirely on gimmicks. Run by pros but supported by an online community, OpenFund practiced super-disclosure, posting its moves on the Web in real time. It also offered ''trader cam,'' where you could watch the managers in action. Ultimately, that translated into a fund that gave out real-time updates for why it stunk. In the end, the fund not only highlighted the need for better disclosure but also showed that too much information doesn't necessarily make a fund good.
In a complete reversal of normal patterns, investors have bid up the multiples of lower-quality issues and ignored the opportunity to be compensated for safety. Essentially, investors are paying to take risk and, as a result, higher-quality companies are undervalued relative to their lower-quality counterparts. For example, at the end of October high-quality health-care stocks - those rated B+ or better by Standard & Poor's rating agency - were selling on a forward price/earnings multiple of 22.3 while low-quality stocks - those rated B or worse - had a p/e of 36.1. This analysis remains the same whether p/e multiples based on trailing or forecast earnings, p/e-to-growth, or price/sales data are used. Bernstein and his colleagues at Merrill suggest one possible explanation. They believe US investors have got ahead of themselves in anticipating the end of the recession. In most cycles, investors are concerned economic stimuli will not work - in other words, they fight the Fed. Not so during this cycle. Investors have readily embraced the Fed's policy actions and, perhaps less surprisingly, the Bush administration tax cuts. Global investors' views do not appear to be very different. Investors seem to think that the recent run-up in some emerging markets is "telling us something" about the nature and timing of a global rebound. If there is a bright side to what Bernstein clearly views as excessive year-end market exuberance, it is probably that it has created a very unusual opportunity for those investors seeking both value and quality. Even if the US economy recovers faster and more sharply than most economist are predicting, buying quality at discounted prices looks like the proverbial "no brainer".
Mr. Venti and Mr. Wise started their analysis by estimating the lifetime income of each household, then sorted the households into 10 equal-sized groups based on their estimate. Their most striking observation was the extreme variation in total asset accumulation within each income group. For example, the wealth held by the top 10% of households in the group just below the median was 35 times the wealth held by the bottom 10% of that same income group. The dispersion of wealth for higher-income groups was slightly smaller, but still high. What is more remarkable is that even a substantial fraction of relatively wealthy people do not save much. The bottom 20% of every income group has zero or negative wealth, with the only exception being the households with the highest lifetime income. Just as some high-income households had minimal accumulated wealth, some low-income households had substantial wealth. The top 10% of the lowest income group had accumulated more than $150,000.
Pessimists compare the current situation with the early 1990s, when the nation went from recession to a recovery so weak that unemployment kept rising for a year. The jobless rate crested at 7.8%. "If there is a recovery soon, it is in grave danger of being a very shallow recovery," Meeropol said. "We could be sitting here in June 2003 with an unemployment rate higher than it is now." Unemployment in November was 5.7%. Most forecasters - even the optimists - have said they expect the rate to surge past 6 percent. The Federal Reserve of Minneapolis has predicted unemployment will peak at 7.6%. More Bear Facts Jim Jubak, MSN 12-18 Bears see no signs that the collapse in business investment that has led the economy lower is over. For example, a recent survey of 291 chief financial officers found that fully 47% expect to cut capital spending in 2002. Consumer spending is also finally showing signs of giving out. American households are sitting on $4.29 trillion in money-market and savings deposits. And money on the sidelines could flow into stocks - but it isn't inevitable that it will. Investors burned by the tech crash of 2000 and scared by disasters such as Enron that have wiped out the retirement savings of thousands of individuals may have significantly reduced their appetite for stocks as an asset class. Bear Facts for Tech Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch 12-19 Stock market strategists are worried about tech stocks. Thanks to a rapid rebound in stock prices this autumn, the technology group is selling for about twice the p/e multiple of the overall U.S. stock market. If these high-octane stocks don't meet consensus estimates for 2002, investors will most certainly regret paying a p/e multiple of almost 60 for the group. "Steve Galbraith at Morgan Stanley points out that with earnings lower, the forward p/e of tech is now where it was at the (Nasdaq) bubble's peak," says Cliff Asness, a principal at $1.5 billion AQR Capital Management. "As usual, Wall Street has focused investors' attention wrongly on the short-term. Price targets for the S&P and Nasdaq next year are again at mania levels, and the talk is bullish everywhere," Asness says. "The idea that stock market investing, and amazingly even tech stock investing, is risk-less if you're long-term enough, regardless of price, will once again be torn down, and torn down hard, but unfortunately, perhaps not before it again harms many individual investors and our economy." Wrong-Way Corrigans are Bullish Mark Hulbert, NY Times 12-16 Researchers have identified several groups of investors who have historically been on the wrong side of the markets. On balance, these groups are quite bullish now. The average investment newsletter editor is recommending that subscribers allocate 61% of their portfolios to stocks, up from negative 13% after the market low in September. Only 28% of advisers are now bearish, versus 42% at the September low. A second ('wrong-way') group is traders of closed-end equity funds. Their mood can be measured by averaging the discounts at which such funds trade from net asset values. There is barely any discount right now, according to the Investor's Guide to Closed-End Funds, whose editor, Thomas J. Herzfeld, calculates it to be just 1.65%. But after the 1987 crash, in which the market declined less than it has in the last 18 months, the average discount was around 17%. Doing the Math Gretchen Morgenson, NY Times 12-23 With the broad stock market averages up almost 20% from their September lows, it is clear that investors not only believe the recession is ending almost as soon as it began, they also think the recovery will wow. James Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management fears that investors' optimism is more about hope than reason. Though analysts have cut near-term earnings estimates, long-term expectations for United States companies remain high. The median estimate for earnings growth, Mr. Paulsen said, now stands at 13%. Although no one knows what kind of revenue growth companies will generate when recovery comes, in recent years sales growth has averaged around 5%. It may be lower, in Mr. Paulsen's opinion. Thus, if sales are rising 5% or less, companies must show a surge in profits ['margins'] to hit that 11% target. "It seems like a good bet to me that the CPI will be under 1% soon, on a year-over-year basis," Mr. Paulsen said. "That's going to make companies struggle for profits." When the economy emerged from its last downturn, in 1991, inflation was around 3%. That provided some pricing power to corporations. At 1% inflation, that power dissipates. Contrary to investors' high hopes, Mr. Paulsen notes that recessions never turn into full recoveries overnight. In the last recession, a healthy growth rate did not return until 1994, three years after the recovery began. "Between 1991 and 1994," he said, "there were many periods when optimism rose that strong growth was imminent, only to prove mistaken a few months later." Everybody knows how well the market anticipates recoveries. What few investors seem willing to recognize is how costly its too-early enthusiasm can be.
`The Fed is encouraging households and businesses to take on more debt when the economy is already weakening under an excessive debt burden,' says Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at the Northern Trust. `It's putting off the judgment day.' In short, if cheap credit caused the problem, how can cheap credit be the solution?
The study found two new Australian-made cars had very high levels of volatile organic compounds, up to 64,000 micrograms per cubic meter, three to 10 weeks after manufacture. A control group of people exposed to half this amount reported within minutes feeling discomfort, drowsiness, fatigue and confusion, eye and ear and nose irritation and headaches. The toxic air emission levels decrease 60% in the first month but were still well above the Australian recommended health level of 500 micrograms per cubic meter.
The numbers are far from scientific. The bulk of the book is based in part on an informal survey conducted on the Web site of the Bloomberg media company over 18 months ending last summer. Ms. Kanner said that she did not know exactly how many people had responded to the Bloomberg survey over all, but that each question drew 2,000 to 16,000 responses. Some of her findings: * 21% would wolf down that worm for $300, while 26% wouldn't touch it for less than $1,000. * 59% would eagerly shave their heads for $10,000. * What's more fun - making money or spending it? 40% say making it, 22% say spending it, and the remainder enjoy both. * How much extra money would it take to make a real difference in your life? One- third say $100,000; 14% at least $500,000; 16% $1 million; and 24% $10 million. * Do you take home the leftovers from a restaurant meal? 62% say they do. * Would you put back an item on a store shelf if you left your coupon for it home? 57% would, while 3% would return home to retrieve the coupon. * Do you feel comfortable about your ability to earn back any money you lose? More than half say yes; 7% have significant doubts. * Do you read the prospectus that comes with a mutual fund? 72% never bother. * How often do you check stock quotations? 41% say once a day; 18% three times a day; 15% more than three: 10% once a week; 5% once a month; 10% never. * Do you know how much your spouse earns? 30% say they don't. * If you borrow money from a spouse, do you pay it back? Just 30% say they do. * Generic or 'name' brands? Name brands win, 85% to 15%. * Do you consider shopping fun? 79% of women do, while 74% of men don't.
The long-bond rate remains the benchmark for determining pension plan contributions, under the Internal Revenue Code and Employee Retirement Income Security Act. The drop in rates could increase the burden on some companies by as much as $10,000 per worker, according to a Watson Wyatt study. Proposals are being floated in Washington that would move the rate for setting pension contributions to a corporate bond rate of around 7%, or to the rate used by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the government agency that takes over when a pension fund fails. The PBGC rate is currently around 6.5%. But to date no formal legislation has been filed to change the rate. For companies who benefited from the stock market's robust growth in the 1990s - and whose pensions were overfunded - the funding requirements that are coming due are particularly shocking. Many companies have not had to make any pension plan payments for several years. Failing to meet the standard for being properly funded can be costly. Employers can face IRS penalties of up to 100 percent of the shortfall, in addition to the money they owe to the plan. Compensation and pension specialists worry that, in the absence of some relief, companies may simply terminate pension plans, locking in a company's current liabilities but avoiding additional obligations. Existing employees would receive the benefits they have earned, but their pensions would not grow based on the additional years they stay with their company. Retirees would continue to get their benefits. The specialists also fear that many companies may decide to trim payrolls in order to cover the costs of making the additional contributions. 'Companies aren't forced to have a pension plan, and any time you create an incentive for them to do away with a plan, that's exactly what some will do' says Ron Gebhardtsbauer, senior pension fellow for the American Academy of Actuaries in Washington. More on Proposed Pension Change E Schultz and T Francis, WSJ 12-18 The American Benefits Council, a lobbying group in Washington, D.C., is asking that companies be allowed to replace a rate they use in several pension calculations (the 30-year Treasury bond, currently at 5.55%) with a new, higher rate (Moody's Aa rate, which is currently 7.28%). Switching to the higher rate not only would allow companies to contribute less to pension funds, but also could have the little-noticed effect of reducing the lump-sum payments to many workers who get laid off, change jobs or retire. These are the one-time payouts many employees elect to receive instead of a stream of monthly pension payments in retirement. (An employee would receive less money because, essentially, the rate represents the return an employee would have to earn on the lump sum in order to see it grow to the future value of the pension the company owes him in retirement age.) For example, a 50-year-old employee who has earned a pension of $2,000 a month when he reaches age 65 would receive a lump sum of $117,741, assuming a rate of 5.55%. However, that same 50-year-old would receive a lump sum of only $80,922 using the Aa Moody's rate of 7.28%. The further from retirement, the greater the decline in pension value. The American Benefits Council says that about 36 of its 250 members could be forced to substantially increase pension funding by the end of 2003 because of low 30-year Treasury rates. Critics worry that companies are simply seeking a legislative change that will benefit themselves at workers' expense. Simply adopting a rate nearly two percentage points higher - without adequate public discussion or analysis - could lead weak pension plans to become dangerously underfunded. The current 30-year Treasury rate was adopted in 1994 to replace the standard back then, a lower rate used by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.
Where are those dollars heading? "Our aggregate flow of funds shows that the money is going into all sectors - but primarily in technology," says Birinyi. Since September 11, tech has been the most favored sector - 25% of total money flow went there, he says. The other top sectors for getting new cash are financials, consumer cyclicals, and health care. Just the Facts Labels Leave a Mark The clothing label, once regarded as an incidental wisp, is finally making its mark - often a welt on the wearer's neck. Retailers blame inferior label materials and manufacturing processes. The problem got started about five years ago, when the industry began moving to machinery with a new method of cutting labels off the loom: slicing them with a hot wire. That melts the label's edges. The process is a bit like torching plastic; when the edges cool, they congeal into an abrasive ridge. Some labels are not engineered to withstand extreme heat and may be inadvertently fried as part of a pre-wear process, rendering it stiff as a board. Finishes applied to labels to make them easier to handle during the sewing process, while often designed to wash out, can also turn a soft-as-silk label into a thing of torture. Lands' End switched to a softer-weave label after customers grumbled about scratching, even though cost doubled to four cents per label. (Barbara Carton, WSJ 12-27) Broadband Update Some 10.7 million of the nation's households now have broadband access, representing about 16% of all households online, according to the Yankee Group research firm. A year ago, 5.6 million homes had broadband, about 10% of online households. Surveys by Forrester and Nielsen/NetRatings put the penetration of broadband at 20%. The Yankee Group estimates that 66% of homes with cable can now order high-speed service if they want to, while only 45% of the homes with phone service can order DSL. The Yankee Group now predicts that over the next few years, only 50 to 55% of homes will be able to get DSL. service, because phone companies now want to increase penetration on the markets they are already in rather than expand. The most common price for DSL service is now $50/month, up from $40/month last year. Cable service is now typically $45, up from $40. (Saul Hansell, NY Times 12-24) Shifting Concerns Overall, says Stephen Kane, fixed-income portfolio manager at $17 billion Metropolitan West Asset Management, "Corporate America has been making a significant shift in its orientation toward bondholder-related concerns like positive cash flow, balance-sheet strength, improved liquidity, increased disclosure and transparency, and backing away from more shareholder-oriented growth strategies." This is being driven, he says, by a number of factors, including a slowing economy, tighter credit-market conditions and well-publicized credit blowups stemming from an unbalanced schedule of near-term debt maturities. (Jennifer Ablan, Barrons 12-24) Federal Debt On Dec. 10, the total federal debt was $5.877 trillion. That's up $70 billion from Sept. 28. Federal debt is up $203 billion from Sept. 29, 2000, and $460 billion from September 1997. In January 1977, the total public debt was $653 billion. With it now at $5.9 trillion, that means it has grown at a rate of 9.2 percent annually over the last 25 years - twice the rate of inflation. (Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News 12-23) Tax Code Back 25 years ago, our tax code was measured in an alarming number of pages. Today it is measured in an alarming number of megabytes. There is a message in the fact that Quicken's tax program requires 50 megabytes of storage on your hard drive, an amount not available until a few years ago. (Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News 12-23) Even our bones are changing What started as an attempt to develop a quick and easy way of dating skeletons has evolved into a research project that unveils how much humans have changed biologically over generations. Forensic anthropologist Dr. Richard Jantz and his wife, Dr. Lee Meadows have found that on average, 20th century North Americans are more elongated and less able to withstand extreme physical stresses than their forebears. The changes are apparent in the shapes and sizes of certain bones in the legs and forearms, which have changed in proportion to the rest of the body. Numerous theories could be offered to explain what has caused the changes, but the most likely answer is that a combination of better nutrition and medical care, coupled with less exercise, has triggered fundamental biological changes in how humans grow. (Nando 12-22) Ibuprofen Counteracts with Aspirin Heart Therapy The ibuprofen (in Advil, Voltaren, Tylenol and Vioxx) that you take to ease arthritis pain can counteract the Aspirin that you take to protect your heart, according to researchers at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Aspirin and NSAIDs both inhibit two different versions of the same enzyme, a protein called cyclooxygenase (COX). One variant of the enzyme, COX-1, found in platelets, is essential in creating the molecules that allow platelets to clot blood. The other variant, COX-2, produces the molecules responsible for the pain and inflammation symptomatic of arthritis. Aspirin will bind to the COX-1 enzyme irreversibly, thereby permanently putting the enzyme - and the platelet - out of commission. Such a sustained effect on platelets is key to the ability of Aspirin to prevent heart attack and stroke. NSAIDs, however, bind less strongly to a different part of the enzyme, and only impair platelets for a short time. NSAIDs and Aspirin both bind near the reactive site deep within the COX-1 enzyme. It appears that NSAIDs physically block Aspirin from reaching its target. (Dr's Guide 12-19) Fed ready to do the 'Tighten Up'? Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note after the release Thursday of the minutes from the November 6 Federal Open Market Committee meeting: "It seems clear the Fed is prepared to take back some of the post-September 11 easings once growth resumes, even if inflation stays very low." He points to the FOMC's statement that: "... the emerging need for a tightening action would be a highly welcome development that could be readily accommodated in a timely manner." (Jennifer Ablan, Barrons 12-17) It's Not the Bottom of the Market "It is way too early to call the bottom in the U.S. economy. We think market participants, who are squinting to find a silver lining in the most recent wiggles in economic stats, are missing the big picture. The truth is that the economy seems to be deteriorating just as it was prior to Sept. 11, and that the stats since Sept. 11 have been volatile but in aggregate they do not point to a bottom at all. In fact based on our measures, November was the weakest month of the year, save September. After a bounce in October, the economy appears to be slowing anew." (Bridgewater Daily Observations, via Wash Post 12-16) Not the Bottom Part 2 "When will we know the bear market bottom is behind us? It will come when most are skeptical of the rally. We will know it because the prevailing mood at that time will be that we should avoid being suckered into another false rally. The average recommended exposure to stocks will hardly budge from a low level. I hope I'm wrong. I would like nothing more than for stocks to be at the beginning of a long-term bull market. But if they were [there now], it would be one of the only times in market history in which a bear market bottom was recognized as such almost immediately by a large proportion of newsletter editors." (Hulbert Financial Digest, via Wash Post 12-16) Misnomer Mutuals Growth-and-income funds are supposed to own dividend-producing stocks. But with dividends on the wane in recent years, many managers simply ignored that part of their mandate. Among the misnamed funds with zero income this year: Marsico Growth & Income, Evergreen Growth & Income, Strong Growth & Income, Fidelity Advisor Growth & Income, and Liberty Growth and Income. And those are just the big guys; another 20-plus growth-and-income funds are in the same boat. (Charles Jaffe, Boston Globe 12-16) Managing Health Care Costs Employers expect their health-care costs to rise nearly 13% next year, with some companies expecting to be hit with increases of 20% or more, according to a survey by human-resource consulting firm William Mercer. The survey of more than 2,800 employers estimates the average cost to companies for each employee's health-care benefits rose 11.2% to $4,924 in 2001, the largest increase in nine years. In response, 40% of large employers said they will require employees to pay a higher percentage of total costs next year by raising deductibles and co-pays. Many more companies are offering their employees defined-contribution plans, in which employees manage their own health-care dollars. These accounts offer incentives for members to choose generic drugs and encourage them to shop around for medical services. According to the Mercer survey, 29% of employers with more than 20,000 workers said they were somewhat or very likely to adopt such an approach within the next two years. (Barbara Martinez, WSJ 12-10) Quick Facts, Stats & Opinions Jack Welch, the just-retired chairman of GE, says the technology investment "bubble" was not a mistake but a major advance for U.S. industry. "That 'bubble' left us with real business abilities to get closer to suppliers and customers," Welch says. "We cut $1 billion out of GE's costs, and we'll cut more next year." (James Flanigan, LA Times 12-30 ) Health care will be the largest activity in the economy, accounting for more than $1.5 trillion in expenditures. Health care in 2002 will account for almost $1 of every $7 spent. In employer-provided health insurance plans, the coming pattern will be to pass on more of the costs to employees. "The annual cost of covering a family of four is about $7,000" says analyst Kenneth Abramowitz of Carlyle Group, a New York investment firm. (James Flanigan, LA Times 12-30) Warren Buffett made this point with typical pith in a 1988 letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: "Observing that the market was frequently efficient, [financial scholars] went on to conclude incorrectly that the market was always efficient. The difference between the propositions is night and day." (James Glassman, Washington Post 12-30) The fiscal 2003 plan due Feb. 4 could have a tiny $1 billion surplus, says Bush budget director Daniels. But that is only if Social Security revenue is included, preliminary congressional data show. Without it, the budget would have a $189 billion deficit, and no surplus until 2009. (WSJ 12-28) Investors warmed up to stock mutual funds in November with net purchases of $14.9 billion says ICI. TrimTabs calculates that stock funds could see an outflow of $1.3 billion this month based on a projection of activity through Dec. 24th. Stock funds that invest in U.S. securities had an inflow of $13.1 billion in November. Bond funds had an inflow of $6.6 billion. (LA Times 12-28) Mexico will increase its $3.80-a-day minimum wage by 4.5% to 7% next year [increasing up $4.20 - $4.60 a day] depending on workers' geographic region, the Labor Ministry said. About 20% of Mexico's 40-million strong work force receives one of three minimum salaries that start at $3.80 and vary by a few cents a day based on the higher or lower costs of living in different parts of the country. (AP via LA Times 12-28) About 2.2% of people in the United States have done away with their regular phone service and depend totally on their cell phones or other wireless devices, according to the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association (CTIA), a trade group based in Washington.Flat-rate plans offering thousands of minutes of talk time a month have encouraged people to use their cell phones more frequently, and for longer periods of time. The total amount of time Americans talk on their cell phones is increasing 75% every year, according to the CTIA. (Yuki Noguchi, Washington Post 12-28) In 2000, the average brand-named prescription sold for 238% more than the average generic prescription, according to the Generic Pharmaceutical Assn. trade group. (Amy Tsao, Business Week 12-27) Here are some goals to take aim at in 2002. (1) Save time by spending less of it watching over your investments. (3) Pay the bills on time. (4) Buy what you need; use what you buy. (5) Pay cash, particularly for big-ticket items. (6) Give more to charity. (Charles A. Jaffe, Boston Globe 12-26) The bond market was besieged with a record number and total dollar amount of "fallen angels," erstwhile investment-grade companies that have tumbled into junk, or even distressed, status. There were 55 fallen angels, totaling $139.4 billion, this year, topping the previous records, set last year, of 32 companies, totaling $74.08 billion, according to Moody's Investors Service. For the year, corporate issuers, combining junk and investment-grade credits, have seen only about one ratings upgrade for 2.9 downgrades, the poorest yearly ratio since the last recession, in 1990-91, according to Moody's. (Jennifer Ablan, Barrons 12-24) The dot-com death toll more than doubled this year, with at least 537 Internet companies either going out of business or seeking refuge in bankruptcy court, according to statistics released Thursday. This year's casualties joined 225 dot-coms that perished during 2000, said Webmergers.com. They estimates that 7,000 to 10,000 Internet companies remain in operation. Through November, dot-com companies had announced 98,522 layoffs, more than doubling the 41,515 firings made in 2000, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. (WSJ 12-27) Maintaining a P1 paper rating became doubly important in 2001 since the Commercial Paper market had shut its doors to all but prime names. Money-market funds, which are big purchasers of CP, keep only 5% of their assets in instruments rated below P1 by Moody's and the equivalent A1 by Standard & Poor's. (Jennifer Ablan, Barrons 12-24) One company that specializes in blocking spam, BrightMail, said unsolicited e-mail accounted for 12.8% of the mail its corporate clients have received since September, nearly double the share of the previous quarter. A spokesman for America Online said unwanted e-mail was the No. 1 complaint of its subscribers. Earlier this year, the European Union released a study that estimated the worldwide cost of junk e-mail at $8 billion annually. (Amy Harmon, NY Times 12-24) While the U.S. economy appears to be emerging from the steep decline that followed Sept. 11, there are still few concrete signs of a robust recovery ahead. That's the consensus of 20 business executives across the country who are participating in an ongoing survey by The Washington Post. Most said that while business isn't getting markedly better, it isn't getting much worse either. (Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post 12-23) Mortgage refinancing has been the largest cash factor lifting the economy. More than $1 trillion worth of mortgages have been refinanced at a lower interest rate in 2001, with the pace accelerating after Sept. 11th. With long-term interest rates falling, homeowners saw opportunities to change their old mortgage for new ones. The lower monthly payments in turn allowed them to spend on other things, pay off debt or put money into savings. (James Flanigan, LA Times 12-23) "The period immediately ahead, which will see a bottom economy and then robust growth, is the sweet spot for investors . . With many valuation measures stretched to historical limits, stocks will require a steady diet of good news to rise. But fortunately, at least for the next six months - and longer, if we're lucky - good news will be the norm." (Stephen Leeb, Personal Finance, via Wash Post 12-23) A look at statistics prepared by Ibbotson Associates and others indicates that in a normal recovery, small-cap stocks should outdistance large-caps over two years by almost a 2-to-1 ratio. (Neal St. Anthony, Star Tribune 12-21) Bush's star role in TV travel ad may shine on. The commercial has aired 1,035 times during network news, pro football games and cable shows. The industry group reports "phenomenal response" - except for daily gripes from Democratic viewers. (WSJ 12-21) With more than 150 million queries per day, Google offers a unique window into what is happening in the world. The Google Year-End Zeitgeist (German, from Zeit [time] + Geist [spirit] meaning the general intellectual, moral, and cultural climate of an era) reveals the collective focus of the online mind, highlighting the main events that drew the attention of a global audience. The top 2 searches for male names were for Nostradamus (urban legend falsely said he predicted the events of 9-11) and Osama Bin Laden. The top 2 searches for female names were for Britney Spears and Pamela Anderson. [make of that what you will] (Google 12-20) A survey by the Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government shows state-tax revenue fell 3.1% in the July-September quarter from the year-earlier period. Personal income-tax revenue fell 3.4%, corporate income-tax revenue fell by more than 25%, and sales-tax revenue was little changed. (WSJ 12-19) Business suits are back in style after more than a decade of khakis and sports shirts in the office. On Wall Street and at big companies, employees are dressing in pinstripes again. Perhaps it is a reaction to the bubble bursting in Silicon Valley. No one wants to look like a dot-commer or venture capitalist these days. And employees anxious about layoffs figure that if they look neater, they may be perceived as more conscientious and therefore less expendable. (WSJ 12-18) Standard & Poor's analysts believe that operating earnings for the S&P 500 will fall 27% during 2001. In fact, 64 of the 103 industries in the S&P, or more than 62%, are expected to report a decline in full-year earnings in 2001. Of the 10 sectors in the S&P 500, Health Care, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Energy are projected to report modest earnings advances of 11%, 9%, 7% and 2%, respectively. (Sam Stovall, Bussiness Week 12-17) Health costs are soaring, with employers facing increases next year of at least 13% even as profits plummet. Employers will probably pass an ever-increasing share of soaring medical costs to employees. As a result, many workers will drop coverage. UC San Diego researchers Todd Gilmer and Richard Kronick, looking at recent trends in health costs and personal income, predict that the number of uninsured working Americans could reach 30% of the labor force by 2009. That would be up from 23% in 1999, says their new report in the journal Health Affairs. (WSJ 12-17) The Nasdaq next spring plans to launch an exchange-traded fund that tracks its entire 4,000-stock composite index. This year, the Composite Index's relative diversification has helped cushion the sharp decline in the Nasdaq's largest tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 (70% of Nasdaq market cap) has plummeted 32% tyhis year while the Composite is only down 22%. During the market's best year, 1999, it rose 102%, while the Composite trailed with an 86% gain. (WSJ 12-17) Morningstar is venturing into the crowded business of creating and licensing stock-market indexes. A lineup of 16 indexes will be unveiled during Q1-002. They will include a broad market index, and indexes that split the market according to capitalization and investment style. Morningstar intends to license the indexes to be the basis for mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other securities. They hope to secure licensing deals before the end of the first half of 2002. (WSJ 12-17) Over the next five years, the drug industry stands to lose patents on more than $40 billion worth of drugs to generic competition. (WSJ 12-17) According to a recent study by Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Kenneth French of Dartmouth, as recently as 1978 two-thirds of all listed companies (the study excluded financial and utility companies) paid dividends. As of 1999, only 21% did so. A reason for the dividend decrease might be the changing nature of the shareholder base. Three decades ago, well over two-thirds of U.S. stocks were owned by individuals. Today, more than half of U.S. stocks are owned by money managers, pension funds and other institutions, which have less use for dividend cash. (Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times 12-16) "Holding stock certificates is a no-no," says Jonathan Forster, an estate-planning lawyer in Tysons Corner, Va. "After your death, your beneficiaries have to deal with the transfer agent and that's a huge hassle. It's much better if you have the stocks in a brokerage account." (Jonathan Clements, WSJ 12-16) "Fed policy works," asserts Alan Levenson, chief economist of T. Rowe Price Associates, referring to the Federal Reserve Board's year-long reductions in its target for the federal funds rate. "Because it works, we will get a recovery next year." (Werner Renberg, Star Tribune 12-16) A multiple of 46, as the S&P 500 registered in early December, seems awfully high to serve as a jumping-off point for a new bull market. (Chet Currier, Bloomberg 12-14) The S&P 500 is trading at 25 times next year's expected earnings, a multiple more typical of a peak than a trough. (Caroline Baum, Bloomberg 12-19) First Call estimates Q4 will slide as much as 19% from last year. That would put the the S&P 500 earnings at $11.05 in the current quarter, up a few pennies from the estimate of the previous period. That also would bring this year's total to $45.10, down from $55.12 in 2000. (Erin E. Arvedlund, Barrons 12-10) As of Oct. 31, according to Hewitt Associates, 29.6% of 401(k) assets held in 1.5 million plans are in stock of the company sponsoring the plan. That is up from 28.4% at this time last year. In some high-profile companies, the proportion is even higher. At the end of last year, the most recent figures available, 46% of Microsoft's 401(k) plan was held in its own stock. (Gretchen Moregenson, NY Times 12-2) Many global blue chips that have outperformed the American market recently remain moderately priced, analysts say. "Valuations are reasonable, and the remarkable strength of the dollar makes this a good time to allocate overseas," said Shawn Johnson, research director at State Street Global Advisors. Companies like Honda, the ANZ Banking and Telefonos de Mexico rank among the strongest in the world on a composite measure of value and growth known as the PEG ratio, according to FactSet Research. (NY Times 12-2) Quick Tips Opera bills itself as 'the fastest browser on earth' - but to laud it only for its speed would miss the point. Version 6.0 of Opera introduces Hotclick, which lets you double-click on any word to get information from Lycos' dictionary, encyclopedia or language translator. With Opera, you can easily access search engines of your choice. Where the Web address normally goes, just type in ''g harry potter'' to find sites on the wizard using the Google search engine. Or type ''z harry potter'' to search on Amazon.com. You can add your own search sites and specify your own keywords or letters. Another menu item, called ''File - Quick preferences,'' lets you easily block pop-ups ads. Opera's browser also comes packaged with e-mail and instant messaging. The standard download is only 3.2 megabytes, or 10.7 MB with Java. Netscape and Microsoft's browser packages typically run 20 to 25 MB. (Associated Press via Boston Globe, 12-31) Panicware (www.panicware.com) offers a free downloadable utility called Pop-up Stopper that kills these irritating ads on the Web, including the pop-under version pioneered by X10 that hides under your main window. I've tested it, and it works. If the pop-up ads inside AOL are your problem, utilities like these won't work, but there is a solution. There's a setting buried inside AOL itself that will turn off the service's internal pop-up ads. (Walter Mossberg, WSJ 12-27) DVD is destined to run videotapes and compact discs off the planet. The DVD far eclipses videotape for movies and shames CD's for music. In data storage, at 4.7 gigabytes it beats a rewriteable CD about sevenfold. There's really no need anymore for CD-ROM drives in computers, as DVD-ROM drives, which cost less than $100, can read all CD-ROMs and standard audio CDs. It will still be at least a year, though, before DVD recorders become standard in home computers. That's because of a nasty format war among consumer electronics companies, much like the one that eventually saw VHS win over Betamax in the world of videotapes. Home moviemakers are already buying DVD burners [about $500] for their computers. (Frank Bajak, AP via Boston Globe 12-27) Ideas for battling password overload: Password Agent (available at moonsoftware.com) free ''lite'' version allows you to store up to 25 passwords. For unlimited entries, you'll have to pony up $14.95. The program includes a password generator and supports wildcard searches. Whisper32 (from ivory.org) includes a password generator, creates automatic backups. If you're having trouble creating passwords you can remember, see ''Password Protection 101,'' on The National Infrastructure Protection Center's Web site, nipc.gov. (Michelle Johnson, Boston Globe 12-20) Google is now crawling headlines from more than 100 leading English language newspapers, and aggregating top headlines on a single page, at www.google.com/news/newsheadlines.html. Google clusters results from many sources under one primary title link. "Related Stories" are make it easy to select stories about a similar topic from most major news sources. (Search Engine Watch 12-19) ActiveBuddy has been working for two years, much of the time in stealth mode, on ways to hook up instant messaging to intelligent computer agents. Their first demo, SmarterChild, has escaped from the lab and started to catch on with IMers. All you had to do was add ''smarterchild'' to your buddy list, and you could pepper the service for news, weather, stock prices, movie times. More than 170 million people are using instant messaging software worldwide. (D.C. Denison, Boston Globe 12-16) Suppose you're working with a page on the Internet and you'd like to leave that page intact and navigate to a new page. This is no problem at all with Netscape Navigator. All you have to do is choose File|New Window (or press Ctrl + N). Now you can go wherever you want in the second window. (Emazing 12-16) Home Page Previous Factoid Top Sites |