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Rouse chief executive Anthony W. Deering does not emphasize building these days. He says strengthening the company's balance sheet is the priority. For example, Rouse aims to accumulate cash by keeping dividends to shareholders low, hoping to raise the company's debt rating. The company's debt is now rated BBB-, just on the cusp of high-risk, high-yield "junk" status. A rise to BBB status, Deering said, would give the company better access to capital with which to make acquisitions. What would it acquire? Deering, in past public statements and in an interview last week, has indicated the firm would like to buy more big tracts of undeveloped land on the outskirts of big cities that can be developed into suburban villages like Columbia. There are a few such properties out there, and Deering said Rouse would be in a prime position to buy any of them when their owners are ready to sell. He also wants to buy other companies' portfolios of top-quality malls, which might give the company better economies of scale, allowing savings on operating costs. There are signs that Rouse would like buy Taubman if Simon's effort fails. As Rouse has vigorously tried to improve its credit rating and sell unattractive malls, some analysts and investors have speculated that it is setting itself up for sale to another player. Its structure would make a buyout straightforward. Deering said Rouse is not actively for sale. But, he said, the company would consider any serious offer. Analysts differ on the potential for a Rouse sale. "I think what they have is an operating strategy, not an exit strategy," said David Shulman, an analyst with Lehman Brothers. But David M. Fick, an analyst with Legg Mason Wood Walker, said: "They have very little capacity to be the acquirer. They still have one of the more stressed balanced sheets." Both the retail and community development face fundamental economic pressures that will determine Rouse's future. Mall building is in turmoil. There are more malls than people want, which forces those of lesser quality to close. People with low to moderate income who used to shop at department stores such as J.C. Penney and Sears increasingly favor "big box" stores such as Target, Wal-Mart, and Kohl's. "Wal-Mart will build 210 new super centers in 2003," said retail consultant John C. Melaniphy III. "Target's going to build 90 stores, Kohl's 80, but if you look at Federated [Department Stores], they'll open 11 stores. The growth just isn't there for department stores." With interest rates at historic lows and housing prices high, community development brought Rouse $85.2 million in net operating income in 2002. But if the housing market changes - if mortgage rates rise, or the population growth in Las Vegas slows as casinos open elsewhere - it could drive the value of the lots down. If the market gets really bad, builders might stop buying land altogether.
Not all those specialized REITs are the same, however. To prove the point, I decided to compare NovaStar Financial (NFI, $33) and its 19% yield (now the industry's second highest) with Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY, $17), which currently yields 16%. NovaStar may look attractive because of the bigger payout but may come with less security. The companies are as different as any two mortgage REITs can be. NovaStar, for example, focuses on investing in and originating mortgage loans to people who often don't qualify for conventional mortgages. Annaly, on the other hand, doesn't make loans: It just invests in them and sticks to buying high-quality loans. NovaStar and Annaly also manage their risk very differently. Like many other mortgage REITs, NovaStar uses derivative transactions like "swaps" to hedge its exposure to changing interest rates. But according to a disclosure in the company's SEC filing for the third quarter of fiscal 2002, NovaStar had a loss from those transactions was $20.9 million. Another difference in the companies is their track record on making dividend payments during a downturn. During the industry's last upheaval, in the late 1990s, NovaStar went through a period where it did not declare a dividend on common stock. Annaly, in the same period, merely trimmed its dividend by a few cents twice before restoring or raising it. By its own calculation, Annaly says it is more efficiently run. With its low overhead, Annaly says it needed just 6.8 cents in operating expenses to produce each dollar of dividend in the fourth quarter of 2002; NovaStar required an industry high of $1.75. Underscoring Annaly's reputation for security in a risky sector is that one of its biggest fans is Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who typically zeroes in on financial stocks ready to blow up, not go up. He calls Annaly the "mortgage REIT with the highest peace-of-mind-adjusted yield." I'd agree. As for NovaStar, let's just say I wouldn't give up my beauty sleep for its yield.
Tom Carr, chairman of CarrAmerica Realty Corp. (CRE), noted that many real-estate investment trusts are trading at significant discounts to the value of their underlying properties, or net asset value. This shows that the public markets have already priced any concerns about the economy and interest rates into REIT stock prices, he said. Some investors are wondering when to pull the capital out, even though "the train has already left the station," he said. Scot Sellers, chairman of Archstone-Smith Trust (ASN), concurred, noting that his company's net asset value at the end of the third quarter was $28.50. Yet, Archstone-Smith's shares closed Monday at $22. SF Rents Fall San Francisco office rents have fallen to 1992 levels when adjusted for inflation, a more precipitous drop than just a return to pre-Internet boom days, property broker Cushman & Wakefield said Tuesday. The rent for top-tier office space downtown is $30.84 a square foot, little changed from the $30.88 of 11 years ago when expressed in today's dollars, Cushman said. Included in the numbers are property taxes and expenses involved in the operating of properties, such as utilities and maintenance. Those expenses have risen 50%, to about $15 a square foot. Inflation-adjusted rents, coupled with the increase in expenses, indicate San Francisco landlords may be hurting more than previously thought after rents tumbled from a peak of $84.60 in 2000. Not accounting for inflation, San Francisco rents are up 39% from 1992, though still below the peak. Also driving down San Francisco's rents is new construction, said Maria Sicola, Cushman's senior managing director of research. About 2.8 million square feet have been added to the supply since 1999. About 15 million square feet are vacant in the city. The vacancy rate is a record 23%, according to Grubb & Ellis Co. (Bloomberg News via LA Times 3-11) Credit Suisse Real Estate Allocation The Credit Suisse Group is advising that investors who are "following a balanced portfolio strategy" place a third of their money in real estate funds or shares in the United States, Britain, Australia and Hong Kong. A Credit Suisse portfolio of real property investments in 14 countries gained 11 percent a year, on average, in the past decade, said Ulrich Braun, head of real estate analysis at Credit Suisse, compared with a 9 percent annualized increase for the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index of stocks."Property is still an attractive investment," Mr. Braun said, adding, "For investors with a 10-year horizon," the entry point doesn't matter. (Bloombert via NY Times 2-23) Home Page Previous REIT Update Top Sites
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