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First week summary: The Office sector prices fell 0.08% for the first full week of January [through January 9th]. The Industrial sector fell 0.65%. And the Apartment sector fell 1.28%. The change of year caused multiple changes in the javascript code formulas. I have checked and double checked the output - and it looks good, but for the next few weeks be aware that there is a greater likelyhood of errors in the data. Second week summary: The Office sector prices rose from a negative 0.08% price growth to a negative 0.05% growth during the second week of January [through January 16th]. After the inclusion of AFR and MPG, the Office sector showed positive price growth month-to-date of 0.48%. The Industrial sector prices rose from a negative 0.65% price growth to a negative 0.37% growth. But the Apartment sector fell again - going from -1.28% to -2.46%. Data on short sales still has not been updated on the WSJ database - with 12-08 stats being the latest figures. Third week summary: The Office sector prices rose from 0.48% to 1.41% price growth during the third week of January [through January 23rd]. GL is scheduled to merge with Transwestern Incestment Co sometime in the 2nd quarter at a price of $15.53. I will drop GL from the Office REITs at the end of the month. The Industrial sector prices rose from a negative 0.37% price growth to a positive 1.42% growth. But the Apartment sector went from -2.46% to -2.12%. Fourth week summary: The Office sector prices rose from 1.41% to 4.26% price growth during the last week of January [through January 30th]. The Industrial sector prices rose from 1.42% to 5.42% price growth. Even the Apartment sector rose from -2.12% to -0.29%. Shorting Activity Update: The WSJ database was updated on 1-31 for activity as of 1-08. In the Office sector, there were double digit ratios for GL [27 days at 8.97% of float], BED [16 at 5.48%] and TRZ [10 at 2.87%]. There was moderate activity in HIW [7 at 3.0%], CLI [6 at 2.43%] and SLG [6 at 3.0%]. Note that only one of the REITs with the highest shorting activity had a price increase for the month higher than sector average [HIW]. Also note that only two Office REITs had a price decrease for the month [GL and CLI], and that both of them were among those listed for shorting activity. In the Apartment sector there were double digit ratios for TCT [31 at 7.19%] and AML [11 at 4.43%]. There was moderate activity in AVB [8 at 3.56%], ESS [7 at 4.1%] MAA [6 at 1.43%] and SMT [6 at 2.53%]. In the Industrial sector there was double digit ratios in CNT [18 at 6.25%] and FR [12 at 4.84%]. There was moderate activity in AMB [7 at 1.64%] and EGP [7 at 1.69%]. NOTE 1: ASN's 02 FFO had to be estimated (and estimated to reflect an average decrease compared to 03) due to the fact that ASN prefers to use EPS - and I could not find the number in their press releases or annual statements. NOTE 2: TCT, while having an analyst[s] that give it ratings, does not have any that are making an FFO forecast. So the one in the table above is home made. It is based on their Q3-03 earnings from their press release. They have made an FFO of $1.52 year-to-date with $.49 in Q3, so I made a conservative estimate of $2.02 for 2003, and I used a sector average growth of 3% for 2004 - which resulted in a $2.08 for 2004. Given TCT's below average rating, the assumption that TCT will perform at sector average may not be a safe assumption. NOTE: Although the tables below are checked and double-checked for accuracy, and may at times be 100% accurate - do NOT count on that. Please confirm through your own research any numbers on which you are to make a buy, sell or hold decision. Most sites giving this kind of data would say that it's information is for entertainment purposes only. I will not presume that you are that masochistic. I try to be accurate, but I randomly fail. And even accurately replicated and freshly retrieved FFO numbers are often stale. The Price to Revenue INDEX figures, due to rounding errors, are not accurate to 3 digits. They are darn close to accurate. Javascript is expected to be accurate to 5 digits when the calculation is simply x times y. But the complexity of the formula - or a large number of calculations to determine a result - can decrease the number of digits of accuracy. Click here for the Shopping Center, Mall, and Health Care Update page. This months article updates are here. |