|
Prior Updates May 04 News May Stats April Stats April Stats April 04 News March Stats March Stats March 04 News Feb Stats Feb Stats Feb 04 News Jan 04 News Jan Stats Jan Stats Biz Links Business News Columnists Econ Reports Stock Exchanges Searches Tax News REIT Links CPN CSA Globe St. ICSC Real Estate Journal Reis ReBuz RSR NaREIT NREI Property ICSC REIT Week REIT Net NAIOP ShopCntrsToday ShopCntrWrld Ind & Office Realtors Yahoo Sortable REOC List Yahoo Stock Screen Stock Charts |
First week summary: The Office sector fell from a decrease of 5.92% to a 8.87% year to date decrease and since the start of Q2 is down 16.29% vs last weeks 13.54% decrease. The Industrial sector prices rose from a 5.91% decrease to 5.68% decrease and is down 15.75% [vs last week's 15.98%] since Q-1's end. The increase in this sector of only eight stocks was driven by an increase in a single stock - Keystone - which was bought out by PLD and Eaton-Vance. The Apartment sector rose from a 6.52% decrease to a 6.20% loss and is down 9.06% [vs last week's 9.39% loss] since Q-1's end. Numerous apartment REITs had increases in price this week, probably driven three factors: [1] The prospect of stronger than expected job growth [2] Better than expected Q1 earnings and/or [3] Upbeat comments and expressed expectations in recent conference calls - many of which occured late in April. The was the case for AML, ASN and AVB. For the week, the Dow lost 1.1%. The Nasdaq fell 0.1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.8%. The Russell 2000 fell 2%. The 10-year note's yield rose to 4.77% from 4.534% last week. The 30-year bond was yielding 5.46% compared to 5.315% last week. The employment report showed strong job growth, increasing the liklyhood of the Fed raising rates sooner. The Fed announced on Wednesday that it was keeping the Fed Funds rate at 1%, but announced that it would have a 'measured response' [as opposed to the previous 'patient' response] to the need to raise rates as the economy improves. Second week summary: The Office sector ROSE from a decrease of 8.87% to a 8.28% year to date decrease [8.26% after the removal of GL] and since the start of Q2 is down 15.73% [16.46% after the removal of GL] vs last weeks 16.29% decrease. GL was merged out of existance at the end of April. Industrial sector prices fell from a 5.68% decrease to a 6.21% decrease and is down 16.22% [vs last week's 15.75%] since Q-1's end. The Apartment sector rose [again] from a 6.20% decrease to a 5.24% loss and is down 8.17% [vs last week's 9.06% loss] since Q-1's end. I checked the daily volumn on a few REITs, and it was slowing for all of those I checked. I believe this to be good news, as a rush to the exits may have exacerbated REITs fall in April. While REITs may have over-corrected, the continuing rise in interest rates still bodes ill for the sector. I think the consensus is that there is a lack of visability [or confident predictability] of what rates will be come December. The 10-year note's yield was almost unchanged at 4.78% [but reached 4.854% during the week]. The 30-year bond was yielding 5.49% [vs 5.46% last week]. The two year's yield ended at 2.54%, the 5 year at 3.90%. The Dow lost 1% for the week and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. April's core CPI was larger-than-expected. The overall CPI rose 0.2% in April. The core CPI has risen at a 3% annualized pace in the first four months of 2004, up from 1.1% in 2003. Also bearish news for Tresuries was a 0.8% surge in industrial production for April [0.4% was expected], the biggest monthly rise since 11-03. Factory capacity use jumped to 76.9% in April [76.7% expected], the highest level since 7-01. Third week summary: The Office sector rose from a decrease of 8.26% to a 6.04% year to date decrease and since the start of Q2 is down 14.36% vs last weeks 15.73% decrease. Industrial sector prices rose from a 6.21% decrease to a 4.52% decrease and is down 14.73% [vs last week's 16.22%] since Q-1's end. The Apartment sector rose [three weeks straight of increases] from a 5.24% decrease to a 4.13% loss and is down 7.11% [vs last week's 8.17% loss] since Q-1's end. In late trading Friday, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 4.76% [vs 4.78% last week], the 30-year bond - 5.46% [5.49% last week], the five-year note - 3.90% [unchanged] and the two-year note - 2.56% [2.54% last week]. Fourth week summary: In the last week of May, these three REIT sub-sectors' prices 'de-corrected', with none of the sectors detailed here down more than 10% from their March ending highs. [The Retail, Mall and Health sectors are still down over 10% from their March ending highs.] The Apartment and Industrial sector now are up for the year - and the Office sector is up when dividends are included. For the week, the Office sector rose from a decrease of 6.04% to a 0.43% year to date decrease and since the start of Q2 is down 9.06% vs last weeks 14.36% decrease. Industrial sector prices rose from a 4.52% decrease to a 1.10% increase and is down 9.75% [vs last week's 14.73%] since Q-1's end. The Apartment sector rose [four weeks straight of increases] from a 4.13% decrease to a 1.10% gain and is down 2.11% [vs last week's 7.11% loss] since Q-1's end. The yields for the week: Office - 6.01% vs 6.38% last week. Industrial - 5.45% vs 5.78% last week. Apartments - 6.40% vs 6.73% last week - an average drop of 34 basis points. At the 2 p.m. early close, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 4.651% [vs 4.76% last week], the 30-year bond - 5.344% [5.46% last week], the five-year note - 3.80% [vs 3.90] and the two-year note - 2.544% last week]. NOTE 1: ASN's 02 FFO had to be estimated (and estimated to reflect an average decrease compared to 03) due to the fact that ASN prefers to use EPS - and I could not find the number in their press releases or annual statements. NOTE: Although the tables above are checked and double-checked for accuracy, and may at times be 100% accurate - do NOT count on that. Please confirm through your own research any numbers on which you are to make a buy, sell or hold decision. Most sites giving this kind of data would say that it's information is for entertainment purposes only. I will not presume that you are that masochistic. I try to be accurate, but I randomly fail. And even accurately replicated and freshly retrieved FFO numbers are often stale. The Price to Revenue INDEX figures, due to rounding errors, are not accurate to 3 digits. They are darn close to accurate. Javascript is expected to be accurate to 5 digits when the calculation is simply x times y. But the complexity of the formula - or a large number of calculations to determine a result - can decrease the number of digits of accuracy. Click here for the Shopping Center, Mall, and Health Care Update page. This months article updates are here. |