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REIT Valuation & Returns for Retail, Mall & Health Care Sectors

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June 2004

First week summary:
   The Shopping Center sector prices ended the week with a 0.65% decrease year-to-date [vs a 0.75% decrease last week] and has fallen 11.68% [vs 11.79% last week] since Q-1's end. The Mall sector ended with a year-to-date gain of 2.30% [vs a gain of 2.42% last week] and has fallen 14.68% [vs 14.49% last week] since Q-1's end. The Health sector finished the week with a 2.76% year to date loss [vs 1.81% last week] for the year and has fallen 15.34% [vs 14.53% last week] since Q-1's end. The Shopping Center sector now has an average yield of 5.89% [vs 5.90% last week]. The Mall sector average yield is now 5.18% [vs 5.17% last week]. The Health Care sector average yield is now 7.13% [vs 7.06% last week].
    The 10-year Treasury note closed Friday yielding 4.77% [vs 4.651% last week], the 30-year bond - 5.46% [5.344% last week], the five-year note - 3.95% [vs 3.80]. Nonfarm business payrolls grew 248,000 in May. Economists expected total job gains of 215,000 in May, while bond traders expected 255,000.

Second week summary:
   The Shopping Center sector prices ended the week with a 0.45% decrease year-to-date [vs a 0.65% decrease last week] and has fallen 11.49% [vs 11.68% last week] since Q-1's end. The Mall sector ended with a year-to-date gain of 2.15% [vs a gain of 2.30% last week] and has fallen 14.79% [vs 14.68% last week] since Q-1's end. The Health sector finished the week with a 2.58% year to date loss [vs 2.76% last week] for the year and has fallen 15.18% [vs 15.34% last week] since Q-1's end. The Shopping Center sector now has an average yield of 5.87% [vs 5.89% last week]. The Mall sector average yield is now 5.19% [vs 5.18% last week]. The Health Care sector average yield is now 7.11% [vs 7.13% last week].
   The 10-year Treasury note closed Thursday yielding 4.798% [vs 4.77% last week]. The 30-year bond ended at 5.468% [5.46% last week]. The market was closed Friday. The Dow ended the week up 1.6%, the S&P 500 index added 1.2%, the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, and the Russell 2000 ended the week up 0.2%.

Third week summary:
   It was a good week, with yields falling in all three sectors just a tab more than did the ten year treasury. The Shopping Center sector prices ended the week with a 2.00% increase year-to-date [vs a 0.45% decrease last week] and has fallen 9.35% [vs 11.49% last week] since Q-1's end. The Mall sector ended with a year-to-date gain of 4.70% [vs a gain of 2.15% last week] and has fallen 12.63% [vs 14.79% last week] since Q-1's end. The Health sector finished the week with a 0.80% year to date loss [vs 2.58% last week] for the year and has fallen 13.55% [vs 15.18% last week] since Q-1's end. The Shopping Center sector now has an average yield of 5.75% [vs 5.87% last week]. After dividends were updated - the yield was 5.69%. The Mall sector average yield is now 5.08% [vs 5.19% last week]. The Health Care sector average yield is now 6.98% [vs 7.11% last week].
   For the week, the Dow edged up 0.06%, its fourth straight up week, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.13% and the Nasdaq fell 0.66%. In late trading, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 4.71% [down 8.98 basis points]. The 30-year Treasury was yielding 5.38%. The five-year note was yielding 3.93%, while the three-year yielding 3.25%. The two-year was yielding 2.77%.

Fourth week [or last 10 day] summary:
   The Shopping Center sector prices ended the week with a 2.61% increase year-to-date [vs a 2.00% increase last week] and has fallen 8.79% [vs 9.35% last week] since Q-1's end. The Mall sector ended with a year-to-date gain of 6.88% [vs a gain of 4.70% last week] and has fallen 10.78% [vs 12.63% last week] since Q-1's end. The Health sector finished the week with a 0.28% year to date loss [vs 0.80% last week] for the year and has fallen 13.22% [vs 13.55% last week] since Q-1's end. The Shopping Center sector now has an average yield of 5.67% [vs 5.75% last week]. The Mall sector average yield is now 4.99% [vs 5.08% last week]. The Health Care sector average yield is now 6.96% [vs 6.98% last week].
    In late trading, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 4.60% [vs 4.71% on the 18th - down 11 basis points]. The 30-year Treasury was yielding 5.30%. The five-year note was yielding 3.78%, while the three-year yielding 3.10%. The two-year was yielding 2.70%.


Shopping Center Update for 6-30-04

Notes: 02 FFO's for AKR and RPT were taken from their year-end stats release, and were substantially different for numbers in the WSJ database.


Mall Update for 6-30-04


Health Care Update for 6-30-04

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