Real Estate Investment Trust Update
REIT Valuation Stats for Office, Industrial & Apartment Sectors

  

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May 06
May Retail/HC

April 05
April Retail/HC
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March 05
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March Retail/HC

Feb 05
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/HC

Jan 04
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Jan Retail/HC

Dec 04
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Dec Retail/HC

Nov 04
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Nov Retail/HC

Oct 04
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Oct Retail/HC

Sept 04
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Aug 04
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July 04
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June 04
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June Retail/HC

May 04
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April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/HC
April 04

March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/HC
March 04

Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/HC
Feb 04

Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/HC
Jan 04

Dec Off/Ind/Apt
Dec Retail/HC
Dec 03
Nov Off/Ind/Apt
Nov Retail/HC
Nov 03
Oct Off/Ind/Apt
Oct Retail/HC
Oct 03
Sept Off/Ind/Apt
Sept Retail/HC
Sept 03
August Off/Ind/Apt
August Retail/HC
August 03
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/HC
July 03

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May 2005

May Sector Summary     During May, the year-to-date Office sector price performance rose to a loss of 3.96% from April's loss of 5.15%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May with a fall to -4.29% vs. April's fall of -3.56%. Yields fell 7 basis points to 5.83% from April's 5.90%.
    The year-to-date Industrial sector price performance rose to a loss of 3.72% from April's loss of 6.77%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May with a fall to -0.65% vs. April's rise of 0.03%. Yields fell 15 basis points to 4.66% from April's 4.81%.
    The year-to-date Apartment sector price performance rose to a loss of 3.17% from April's loss of 5.29%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May rising to -0.17% vs. April's fall of -0.51%. Yields fell 11 basis points to 5.40% from April's 5.51%.
    The year-to-date Shopping Center sector price performance rose to a loss of 2.31% from April's loss of 5.92%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May with a rise to 0.34% vs. April's rise of 0.17%. Yields fell 19 basis points to 5.16% from April's 5.35%.
    The year-to-date Mall sector price performance rose to a gain of 1.44% from April's loss of 1.86%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May with a rise to 2.58% vs. April's rise of 2.01%. Yields fell 14 basis points to 4.43% from April's 4.57%.
    The year-to-date Health Care sector price performance rose to a loss of 1.33% from April's loss of 5.76%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended May with a fall to 1.61% vs. April's fall of 0.82%. Yields fell 29 basis points to 6.29% from April's 6.58%.
    In the three other equity income segments followed by this site, Pipeline MLPs were up 3.21% year-to-date [vs being up 4.67% at May's end] and had a distribution yield of 6.16% [vs 5.98% in April] - a rise of 18 basis points. Large-cap banks rose to a loss of 5.59% from April's loss of 6.13% and yields fell 2 basis points to 3.57% from April's 3.59%. Mid-cap banks rose to a year-to-date loss of 5.98% from April's loss of 8.85% and yields ended at 3.56% [vs April's 3.67% - a rise of 9 basis points]. The ten year treasury ended the month at 4.00% [vs 4.20% on 4-29 - a fall of 20 basis points] .

Office Update for 5-31-05

Industrial Update for 5-31-05

Apartment Update for 5-31-05

An Explanation of Above Table: Just what my most data intensive sector update needs, another spreadsheet. But why not have one spreadsheet that focuses on multiyear data. And this spreadsheet indicates that some Apartment REITs are posibly getting robbed on valuations. Notice MAA and UDR - which have the highest and second highest FFO growth over the 2001 throught projected 2006 time period. You would expect them to be rewarded with a higher than sector average Price/FFO. But both are valued below sector average. And while MAA is projected to grow slower than sector average both in 05 and 06 [perhaps justifying the valuation] - UDR has above sector average growth.
    Undervaluation is not unique to UDR. Based on both past performance and future projections, why would GBP have a higher valuation than CPT or HME? Based on the same metrics, how can you say that ASN and AVB are worth their current [and very high] Price/FFO valuations? In the April article update [first article in the Apartment section - which is more than half way down the page], WSJ's Ray Smith answers that question - by using housing ownership costs/renting costs comparisons in the markets where ASN, AVB and ESS reside. This is a reminder that some important valuation metrics are not reported here on this page.

NOTE: Although the tables above are checked and double-checked for accuracy, and may at times be 100% accurate - do NOT count on that. Please confirm through your own research any numbers on which you are to make a buy, sell or hold decision. Most sites giving this kind of data would say that it's information is for entertainment purposes only. I will not presume that you are that masochistic. And even accurately replicated and freshly retrieved FFO numbers are often stale.
    The Price to Revenue INDEX figures, due to rounding errors, are not accurate to 3 digits - and as of 3-31-05 are off by a margin of about 5 percent - and I have yet to find the problem. Javascript is expected to be accurate to 5 digits when the calculation is simply x times y. But the complexity of the formula - or a large number of calculations to determine a result - can decrease the number of digits of accuracy.

    Click here for the Shopping Center, Mall, and Health Care Update page.
    This months article updates are here.

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