Real Estate Investment Trust Update
REIT Valuation & Returns for Retail, Mall, Health Care & Hospitality Sectors

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Prior REIT Updates
July 05
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 05
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 05
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Dec 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Nov 04
Nov Off/Ind/Apt
Nov Retail/Hlth Care

Oct 04
Oct Off/Ind/Apt
Oct Retail/Hlth Care

Sept 04
Sept Off/Ind/Apt
Sept Retail/Hlth Care

Aug 04
Aug Off/Ind/Apt
Aug Retail/Hlth Care

July 04
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 04
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 04
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

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Dec Stats
Dec 03
Nov Stats
Nov Stats
Nov 03
Oct Stats
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Oct 03
Sept Stats
Sept Stats
Sept 03
August Stats
August Stats
August 03
August 03
July Stats
July Stats
July 03
June Stats
June Stats
June 03

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August 2005

    The Shopping Center sector fell 4.19% in August to a gain year-to-date of 2.00% from June's gain of 6.53%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August with a fall to 0.49% vs. July's fall of 0.55%. Yields rose 23 basis points to 5.01% from July's 4.78%. NaREITs Shopping Center sector numbers [where large caps and low yielders dominate NaREIT stats] was down 3.16% for the month with a 8.23% gain year-to-date and a yield of 4.43% vs. July's 11.76% year-to-date gain with a yield of 3.95% [a rise of 48 basis points - which must mean there is an error somewhere in those NAREIT figures because they are so our of line with the rest of the sector].
    The Mall sector fell 6.38% in July [with smaller caps GRT and MLS falling the most and thus causing a logical seperation between my stats and NaREIT stats] to a year-to-date gain of 7.61% from July's gain of 15.33% gain year-to-date. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August with a rise to 3.85% vs. July's 3.43%. Yields rose 31 basis points to 4.26% from July's 3.95%. NaREITs Mall sector numbers were down 4.81% for the month and up 16.79% year-to-date with a yield of 3.79% vs. July's 22.70% year-to-date gain with a yield of 3.58% [a rise of 21 basis points].
    The Health Care sector fell 6.81% in August to a gain of 0.76% year to date from July's gain of 8.20%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August with a fall to -2.01% vs. July's -2.95%. Yields rose 44 basis points to 6.42% from July's 5.98%. NaREITs Health sector numbers: Down 3.59% for the month [only 2 of the 10 REITs in MY Health Care sector fell less than 3.6% - so I have no idea how NARIET calculated a fall so small] and up 5.89% year-to-date with a yield of 6.10% vs July's 9.83% year-to-date increase with a yield of 5.89% [a rise of 21 basis points - a rise that I believe is understated because the fall in prices is understated].
    The Hospitality sector fell 2.05% for the month to a year-to-date gain of 2.80% vs. July's 5.05% year to date performance. 05 FFO growth estimates ended June with a rise of 0.28% year-to-date vs July's 0.37%. Yields rose 11 basis points to 5.13% vs July's 5.02% . NaREITs Lodging sector numbers: Down 3.51% for the month and up 4.53% year-to-date with a yield of 3.70% vs July's 9.83% year-to-date increase with a yield of 3.57%. I only use REITs that are paying dividends in my stats - while NaREIT uses all Hospitality REITs - some of which are still not paying dividends. This explains the big difference in yields and some of the difference in price performance.
    During August, the year-to-date Office sector fell 3.37% to a gain of 3.70% year to date from July's year to date gain of 7.14%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August with a fall to -10.86% vs. July's fall of -5.24% [with AMV and GLB having huge FFO estimate downgrades that distorted this number]. Yields rose 21 basis points to 5.51% from July's 5.30%. NaREITs Office sector numbers: Down 4.10% for the month and up 11.35% year to date [with a yield of 5.07%] vs. July's 16.11% gain and 4.86% yield [a rise of 21 basis points]. Large caps EOP, BXP and VNO are up big vs. the sector - thus there is a logical reason for the differentiation between my stats and NaREIT's cap weighted stats.
    The Industrial sector fell 3.00% for the month, to a gain of 4.69% year to date [after being up 6.26% in July alone] from July's gain of 7.85% year to date. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August with a fall to -0.25% vs. July's fall of 0.68%. Yields rose 15 basis points to 4.39% from July's 4.24%. NaREITs Induistrial sector numbers: Down 3.55% for the month and up 5.70% year-to-date with a yield of 3.91% vs. July's 9.58% year-to-date increase and yield of 3.76% [a rise of 15 basis points].
    The year-to-date Apartment sector fell 5.66% for the month to a gain of 4.50% year to date from July's year to date gain of 10.74%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended August rising to 0.06% vs. July's rise of 0.38%. Yields rose 30 basis points to 5.05% from July's 4.75%. NaREITs Apartment sector numbers: Down 5.52% for the month and up 8.16% year-to-date with a yield of 4.70% vs. July's 14.48% year-to-date rise with a yield of 4.42% [a rise of 28 basis points].
    In the three other equity income segments followed by this site, Pipeline MLPs down 3.76% for the month and up 9.90% year-to-date [vs being up 14.20% at July's end] and had a distribution yield of 6.10% [vs 5.87% in July] - a rise of 23 basis points. During August, large-cap banks fell 1.62% to a loss of 6.20% year to date, from July's loss of 4.65% and yields rose 17 basis point to 3.71% from July's 3.54%. Mid-cap banks fell 2.74% to a year-to-date loss of 2.71% from July's gain of 0.13% and yields ended at 3.44% [vs July's 3.32% - a rise of 12 basis points]. The ten year treasury ended the month at 4.02% [vs 4.28% on 7-29 - a fall of 26 basis points].
August Mid-Month Stats
    In the first week of the month, UBS analyst Chris Pike downgraded 15 REITS [ESS, REG, NHP, CBL, PNP, AVB, IRC, HME, PEI, HTG, LRY, BRE, GGP, TCO, EQY] because "valuations are stretched on several metrics". The second week brought with it a very negative REIT feature article in Barrons.
    The Shopping Center sector fell 4.95% in the first two weeks of August [vs. being down 3.32% for the month last week]. Yields rose 26 basis points to 5.04% from 4.78% at July's close. The Mall sector fell 7.77% in the first two weeks of August [vs. being down 6.24% last week]. Yields rose 36 basis points to 4.31% from 3.95% at July's close.
    The Health Care sector fell 6.81% in the first two weeks of August [vs. being down 3.71% last week]. Yields rose 44 basis points to 6.42% from 5.98% at July's close. The Hospitality sector fell 4.37% for the first two weeks of August [vs. being down 4.51% last week]. Yields rose 22 basis points to 5.24% from 5.02% at July's close.
    For the first week of August, the Office sector fell 5.38% [vs. being down 4.88% last week]. Yields rose 33 basis points to 5.63% from 5.30% at July's close. The Industrial sector fell 5.04% [vs. being down 4.89% last week] and yields rose 24 basis points to 4.48% from 4.24% at July's close.
    The Apartment sector fell 6.59% for the month [vs. being down 5.53% last week] and yields rose 33 basis points to 5.08% from 4.75% at July's close.

Shopping Center [and Other Retail] Update for 8-31-05

Mall Update for 8-31-05

Health Care Update for 8-31-05

Hospitality Update for 8-31-05

Click here for the Office, Industrial and Apartment Updates. Click here for this months articles.


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