Real Estate Investment Trust Update
REIT Valuation & Returns for Retail, Mall, Health Care & Hospitality Sectors

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Industrial
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Prior REIT Updates
Aug 05
Aug Off/Ind/Apt
Aug Retail/Hlth Care

July 05
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 05
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 05
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Dec 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Nov 04
Nov Off/Ind/Apt
Nov Retail/Hlth Care

Oct 04
Oct Off/Ind/Apt
Oct Retail/Hlth Care

Sept 04
Sept Off/Ind/Apt
Sept Retail/Hlth Care

Aug 04
Aug Off/Ind/Apt
Aug Retail/Hlth Care

July 04
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 04
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 04
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Dec Stats
Dec Stats
Dec 03
Nov Stats
Nov Stats
Nov 03
Oct Stats
Oct Stats
Oct 03
Sept Stats
Sept Stats
Sept 03
August Stats
August Stats
August 03
August 03
July Stats
July Stats
July 03
June Stats
June Stats
June 03

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September 2005

    The Shopping Center sector fell 0.18% in September to a gain year-to-date of 1.18% from August's gain of 2.00%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a fall to 0.59% vs. August's fall of 0.49%. Yields rose 5 basis points to 5.06% from August's 5.01%. NAREIT's Shopping Center sector numbers [where large caps that are also the lower yielding components dominate NAREIT stats] was down 1.07% for the month with a 7.07% gain year-to-date and a yield of 4.52% vs. August's 8.23% year-to-date gain with a yield of 4.43% [a rise of 9 basis points].
    The Mall sector fell 3.22% in September to a year-to-date gain of 4.31% from August's gain of 7.61% gain year-to-date. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a rise to 3.93% vs. August's 3.85%. Yields rose 16 basis points to 4.42% from August's 4.26%. NAREIT's Mall sector numbers were down 2.08% for the month and up 14.36% year-to-date with a yield of 3.87% vs. August's 16.79% year-to-date gain with a yield of 3.79% [a rise of 8 basis points].
    The Health Care sector rose 3.51% in September [after having an atypically bad August in which the sector fell 6.81%] to a gain of 4.32% year to date from August's gain of 0.76%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a fall to -1.96% vs. August's -2.01%. Yields fell 20 basis points to 6.22% from August's 6.42%. NAREIT's Health sector numbers: Up 1.26% for the month and up 7.22% year-to-date with a yield of 5.17% vs. August's 5.89% year-to-date increase with a yield of 6.10% [this data concerning the change in yield does not appear logical, but I have yet to find the error in it].
    The Hospitality sector fell 2.63% for the month to a year-to-date gain of .11% vs. August's 2.08% year to date performance. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a fall of 0.24% year-to-date vs. August's 0.28% RISE. Yields rose 16 basis points to 5.29% vs August's 5.13%. NAREIT's Lodging sector numbers: Down 1.50% for the month and up 2.96% year-to-date with a yield of 2.96% vs. August's 4.53% year-to-date increase with a yield of 3.70%. I only use REITs that are paying dividends in my stats - while NAREIT uses all Hospitality REITs - some of which are still not paying dividends. This explains the big difference in yields and some of the difference in price performance.
    During September, the Office sector rose 1.26% to a gain of 4.99% year-to-date from August's year-to-date gain of 3.70%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a fall to -10.63% vs. August's fall of -10.86%. Yields fell 6 basis points to 5.45% from July's 5.51%. NAREITs Office sector numbers: Up 1.96% for the month and up 13.53% year to date [with a yield of 5.05%] vs. August's 11.35% gain and 5.07% yield [a fall of 2 basis points].
    There is a large difference between my numbers and NARIET's numbers -- but large caps BXP, EOP and VNO have done much better than average -- helping the cap weighted NAREIT index. At the same time small caps AFR, AMV, BED, GLD and PKY have fallen, dragging down the non-cap-weighted numbers.
    Based on the numbers from this site, the Office sector had a yield spread over the ten year treasury of 112 basis points at September's end, 113 points at August's end, 102 at July's end, 171 at June's end, 183 at May's end, and 170 at April's end. Improving fundamentals may justify the shrinking spreads -- but I can not help but feel uncomportable with spreads under 150.
    The Industrial sector rose 1.78% for the month, to a gain of 6.39% year-to-date from August's gain of 4.69% year-to-date. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September with a fall to -0.16% vs. August's fall of 0.25%. Yields fell 8 basis points to 4.31% from August's 4.39%. NAREIT's Industrial sector numbers: Up 0.40% for the month and up 6.12% year-to-date with a yield of 3.91% vs. August's 5.70% year-to-date increase and yield of 3.91%.
    The Apartment sector fell 0.73% for the month to a gain of 3.80% year to date from August's year-to-date gain of 4.50%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended September rising to 0.08% vs. August's rise of 0.06%. Yields rose 5 basis points to 5.10% from August's 5.05%. NAREIT's Apartment sector numbers: Up 1.28% for the month and up 9.54% year-to-date with a yield of 4.67% vs. August's 8.16% year-to-date rise with a yield of 4.70% [a fall of 3 basis points].
    In the three other equity income segments followed by this site, Pipeline MLPs were up 0.51% for the month and up 10.28% year-to-date [vs being up 9.90% at August's end] and had a distribution yield of 6.07% [vs. 6.10% in August] - a fall of 3 basis points. During September, large-cap banks fell 2.74% to a loss of 8.75% year to date, from August's loss of 6.20% and yields rose 13 basis points to 3.84% from August's 3.71%. Mid-cap banks fell 2.86% to a year-to-date loss of 5.44% from August's loss of 2.71% and yields ended at 3.55% [vs. August's 3.44% - a rise of 11 basis points]. The ten year treasury ended the month at 4.33% [vs 4.02% on 8-31 - a rise of 31 basis points].

Shopping Center [and Other Retail] Update for 9-30-05

Mall Update for 9-30-05

Health Care Update for 9-30-05

Hospitality Update for 9-30-05

Click here for the Office, Industrial and Apartment Updates. Click here for this months articles.


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