Real Estate Investment Trust Update
REIT Valuation & Returns for Retail, Mall, Health Care & Hospitality Sectors

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Oct 05
Oct Off/Ind/Apt
Oct Retail/Hlth Care

Sept 05
Sept Off/Ind/Apt
Sept Retail/Hlth Care

Aug 05
Aug Off/Ind/Apt
Aug Retail/Hlth Care

July 05
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 05
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 05
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Dec 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

Nov 04
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Nov Retail/Hlth Care

Oct 04
Oct Off/Ind/Apt
Oct Retail/Hlth Care

Sept 04
Sept Off/Ind/Apt
Sept Retail/Hlth Care

Aug 04
Aug Off/Ind/Apt
Aug Retail/Hlth Care

July 04
July Off/Ind/Apt
July Retail/Hlth Care

June 04
June Off/Ind/Apt
June Retail/Hlth Care

May 04
May Off/Ind/Apt
May Retail/Hlth Care

April 04
April Off/Ind/Apt
April Retail/Hlth Care

March 04
March Off/Ind/Apt
March Retail/Hlth Care

Feb 04
Feb Off/Ind/Apt
Feb Retail/Hlth Care

Jan 04
Jan Off/Ind/Apt
Jan Retail/Hlth Care

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Dec 03
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November 2005

    The Shopping Center sector rose 3.53% in November to a gain year-to-date of 1.04% from October's loss of 2.44%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November with a fall of 0.80% vs. September's fall of 0.76%. Yields fell 26 basis points to 5.13% from October's 5.29%. NAREIT's Shopping Center sector numbers were up 4.72% for the month with a 8.04% gain year-to-date and a yield of 4.50%.
    Based on the numbers from this site, the Shopping Center sector had a yield spread over the ten year treasury [4.49%] of 64 basis points at November's end, 72 basis points at October's end, 73 basis points at September's end, 99 points at August's end, 50 at July's end, 105 at June's end, 118 at May's end, and 115 at April's end.
    The Mall sector rose 4.20% in November [and that rise was dragged down by MLS' fall] to a year-to-date gain of 5.58% from Oct's gain of 0.76% gain year-to-date. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November with a rise to 0.41% vs. Oct's 2.05% [MLS and GRT estimates fell year to date while the other estimates rose]. Yields fell 16 basis points to 4.51% from Oct's 4.67%. NAREIT's Mall sector numbers were up 5.51% for the month and up 16.29% year-to-date with a yield of 3.97%
    The Health Care sector fell 0.08% in November to a loss of 0.68% year to date from Oct's loss of 0.63%. Triple Nets' off all stripes performed below REIT sector average in November. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November with a fall to -2.33% vs. Oct's -2.00%. Yields rose 2 basis points to 6.55% from Oct's 6.53%. NAREIT's Health sector numbers: Up 1.30% for the month and up 3.78% year-to-date with a yield of 6.32%.
    The Hospitality sector rose 0.62% for the month to a year-to-date loss of 0.82% vs. Oct's 1.85% loss. 05 FFO growth estimates ended October with a fall of 2.74% vs. Oct's 0.50%. Yields fell 8 basis points to 5.50% vs Oct's 5.42%. NAREIT's Lodging sector numbers: Up 5.90% for the month and up 6.19% year-to-date with a yield of 4.10%. I only use REITs that are paying dividends in my stats - while NAREIT uses all Hospitality REITs - some of which are still not paying dividends. This explains the big difference in yields and some of the difference in price performance.
    During October, the Office sector rose 3.24% to a gain of 4.57% year-to-date from October's year-to-date gain of 1.10%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November with a fall to -13.03% vs. Oct's fall of -11.58%. Yields fell 15 basis points to 5.56% from Oct's 5.71%. NAREITs Office sector numbers: Up 3.89% for the month and up 13.99% year to date, with a yield of 5.07%].
    Based on the numbers from this site, the Office sector had a yield spread over the ten year treasury of 107 at November's end, 114 at October's end, 112 basis points at September's end, 113 points at August's end, 102 at July's end, 171 at June's end, 183 at May's end, and 170 at April's end. I feel uncomportable with spreads under 150.
    The Industrial sector rose 3.44% for the month, to a gain of 7.91% year-to-date from Oct's gain of 4.23%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November with a fall to -0.60% vs. Oct's fall of 0.47%. Yields fell 13 basis points to 4.40% from Sept's 4.53%. NAREIT's Industrial sector numbers: Up 4.90% for the month and up 11.69% year-to-date with a yield of 3.82%.
    The Apartment sector rose 2.69% for the month to a gain of 9.82% year to date from Oct's gain of 6.99%. 05 FFO growth estimates ended November rising to 0.21% vs. Sept's rise of 0.21%. Yields fell 12 basis points to 4.74% from Oct's 4.86%. NAREIT's Apartment sector numbers: Up 1.28% for the month and up 9.54% year-to-date with a yield of 4.67%.
    In the three other equity income segments followed by this site, Pipeline MLPs fell 5.22% for Nov. and were up 1.33% year-to-date [vs being up 6.95% at Oct's end] and had a distribution yield of 6.61% [vs. 6.45% in Oct.] - a rise of 16 basis points. There were follow-up public offerings of MLPs and falling energy prices, which hurt the sector. During November, large-cap banks rose 3.94% to a loss of 1.66% year to date, from Oct's loss of 3.76% and yields fell 14 basis points to 3.57% from October's 3.71%. During November mid-cap banks rose 2.64% to a year-to-date loss of 2.74% and yields ended at 3.48% vs. Oct's 3.53% - a fall of 5 basis points. The ten year treasury ended the month at 4.49% [vs 4.57% on 10-31 - a fall of 8 basis points].

Shopping Center [and Other Retail] Update for 11-30-05

Mall Update for 11-30-05

Health Care Update for 11-30-05

Hospitality Update for 11-30-05

Click here for the Office, Industrial and Apartment Updates. Click here for this months articles.


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