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Site Changes With all but two of the sector having announced their Q4 distributions, I have changed the yields, the price to distribution ratios and the spread calculation to be based on the Q4 distributions. Distribution History and the forecaster spreadsheet have also been changed to use Q4 distributions.. BWP, BPL, CPNO, EPD, ETP, HEP, HLND, KSP, MMP, MWE, OKS, PAA, SXL, TCLP, VLI, WPZ, XTEX & XTXI have announced distributions increases while APL, EEP, KMP, PPX, TLP & TPP have announced their Q4 distributions will not increase. One other change - the forecaster spreadsheet now uses 2007 DCF estimates instead of 2006 DCF estimates. And there is one new addition this month, a spreadsheet for this site's consensus DCF estimates, showing the DCF growth and price to DCF ratios over the years of 2005 through 2007. I also added a sector average line to the distribution growth spreadsheet. The spreadsheet below uses month ending data. The 'monthly price change' column is for unit price changes, while the 'year to date' stats is for total return [distributions plus unit price gains]. This explains the jumps in year to date gains in the distribution heavy months of February, May and August without similar gains in those month's unit prices. CEF numbers are for MLP and MLP-hybrid Closed-End Funds. The 'Ten Year Yield' numbers are for the US Treasury. Tracking the spread of the average MLP's yield to the Treasury [which I have done since January of 2005] has been a useful tool for timing of MLP purchases. I have tracked the CEF spread since April 2006, and it is too early to tell if this number is meaningful, but time will tell.
Enterprise to Build Shenzi Oil Export Pipeline in GoM BusinessWire 10-04 Enterprise Products Partners announced that it has signed definitive agreements with producers to construct, own and operate an oil export pipeline to provide firm gathering services from the BHP Billiton-operated Shenzi field located in the prolific South Green Canyon area of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Shenzi oil export pipeline will originate at the Shenzi Field, located in 4,300 feet of water at Green Canyon Block 653, approximately 120 miles off the coast of Louisiana. The 83-mile, 20-inch diameter pipeline will have the capacity to transport up to 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil and will connect the field to the Cameron Highway Oil Pipeline and Poseidon Oil Pipeline systems at Enterprise's Ship Shoal 332B junction platform. The Shenzi field is owned by a joint venture comprising BHP Billiton with a 44 percent interest, Repsol E&P USA Inc. and Hess Corporation, each owning a 28 percent interest. Enterprise's new oil export pipeline will connect to a platform being constructed by BHP Billiton to develop the field, with production expected to begin in mid-2009. ETP Announces Agreement with CenterPoint BusinessWire 10-03 Energy Transfer Partners announced that its subsidiary, Houston Pipe Line Company LP, has entered into a long-term agreement with CenterPoint Energy to provide the natural gas utility with firm transportation and storage services on its HPL System located along the Texas gulf coast region. Under the terms of the agreement, CenterPoint Energy has contracted for 129 Bcf per year of firm transportation capacity combined with 10 Bcf of working gas storage capacity in the Bammel Storage facility. Under the new agreement with CenterPoint Energy, ETP will no longer need to utilize predominately all of the Bammel Storage facility's working gas capacity for the supplying of CenterPoint Energy's winter needs. This will reduce ETP's working capital requirements that were necessary to finance the working gas while in storage. In addition, this change will give ETP the opportunity to provide natural gas storage services to third-parties and LNG uses. EROC IPOs Reuters 10-24 Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP [EROC] raised $237.5 million on Tuesday with an IPO that was priced at the bottom of a forecast range, according to an underwriter. The 12.5 million common unit offering, which represents about a 29% stake in the company, sold for $19 per share compared with a $19 to $21 forecast range. The Houston-based company plans to use net proceeds for capital expenditures. Eagle Rock gathers, compresses, treats, processes, transports and sells natural gas. The company is also involved in the fractionating and transporting of natural gas liquids. The company intends to acquire and construct additional facilities. [EROC is projected to pay a distribution of $.3625 quarterly.] EPD Reports Net Income of $0.43 vs. $0.29 in Q3-05 BusinessWire 10-24 Enterprise Products Partners reported record net income of $208 million, or $0.43 per unit on a fully diluted basis, for Q3-06, a 59% increase from net income of $131 million, or $0.29 per unit, in Q3-05. Net income for Q3-06 includes approximately $50 million [$0.12/unit] of cash proceeds from business interruption insurance claims associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004. This benefit was partially offset by charges in Q3-06 for a non-cash impairment of the investment in certain offshore natural gas pipelines for $7.4 million [$0.02/unit] and a $6.6 million [$0.02/unit] loss related to the contracted replacement of cushion natural gas at the partnership's Wilson natural gas storage facility that is undergoing mechanical repairs. Gross operating margin for NGL Pipelines & Services increased 51% to $232 million in Q3-06 from $154 million in Q3-05. Approximately $30 million of this $78 million increase was due to recoveries under business interruption insurance. Enterprise's onshore natural gas pipeline and storage business earned gross operating margin of $77 million in Q3-06 compared to $94 million in Q3-05. Gross operating margin for the Offshore Pipelines & Services segment was $38 million in Q3-06 compared to $17 million in Q3-05. Gross operating margin for Petrochemical Services increased 9% to $52 million for Q3-06 from $48 million for Q3-05. SXL Reports Net Income of $0.59 vs. $0.56 in Q3-05 PRNewswire 10-23 Sunoco Logistics Partners announced quarterly net income for Q3-06 of $17.7 million [$0.59/unit on a diluted basis] compared with $14.7 million [$0.56/unit] for Q3-05. The increase was due mainly to an increase in total shipments in the Eastern Pipeline System, operating results from the acquisitions completed in 2005 and 2006 in the Western Pipeline System and increased revenues at the Partnership's refined product terminals associated with ethanol blending. These increases were partially offset by lower lease acquisition margins and higher interest expense related to financing the acquisitions completed in 2006 and SXL's internal expansion capital program. For the nine months ended 9-30-06, net income was $62.4 million, a 30.6% increase over the $47.8 million of net income for the nine months ended 9-30-05. Operating income for the Eastern Pipeline System increased $3.9 million to $11.6 million for Q3-06 from $7.7 million for Q3-05. The Terminal Facilities business segment had operating income of $9.7 million for Q3-06, an increase from $8.0 million for Q3-05. Operating income for the Western Pipeline System decreased $3.4 million for Q3-06 from $4.4 million for Q3-05 - the result of lower lease acquisition margins. Net interest expense increased $1.5 million for Q3-06 and $3.8 million for the nine months ended 9-30-06, compared to the prior year's respective periods, primarily due to increased borrowings and higher interest rates. Maintenance capital expenditures decreased $1.1 million to $6.6 million for Q3-06 from Q3-05 due primarily to the differences in timing of scheduled maintenance activity between the periods. BPL Reports Net Income of $0.69 vs. $0.65 in Q3-05 PRNewswire 10-27 Buckeye Partners reported revenue for Q3-06 increased to $116.5 million from revenue of $102.4 million in Q3-05. Operating income increased to $46.0 million in Q3-06 from $40.7 million in Q3-05. BPL's Q3-06 net income was $27.3 million [$0.69/unit] compared with net income of $24.7 million [$0.65/unit] in Q3-05. Net income per LP unit results in Q3-06 includes an increase in the average number of LP units outstanding to 39.7 million from an average of 38.2 million LP units outstanding in Q3-05. VLI Reports Net Income of $0.79 vs. $0.79 in Q3-05 Businesswire 10-30 Valero announced income applicable to limited partners from continuing operations of $36.9 million [$0.79/unit] for Q3-06 compared to $37.1 million [$0.79/unit] for Q3-05. Distributable cash flow available to limited partners from continuing operations for the third quarter was $52.4 million, or $1.12 per unit, compared to $49.0 million, or $1.05 per unit for the third quarter of 2005. As of September 30, 2006, the partnership's debt-to-capitalization ratio was 38.5% compared to 38.0% as of September 30, 2005. HEP Reports Net Income of $0.45 vs. $0.44 in Q3-05 PRNewswire 10-30 Holly Energy Partners, L.P. reported Q3 net income of $7.8 million ($0.45/unit), as compared to $7.3 million ($0.44/unit) for Q3-05. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, net income was $17.9 million ($1.04 per basic and diluted limited partner unit) as compared to $19.7 million ($1.27 per basic and diluted limited partner unit) for the nine months ended September 30, 2005. BWP Reports Q3 Results Businesswire 10-30 Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP announced Income before income taxes of $30.8 million for the quarter and $132.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, a 305% and 42% increase from $7.6 million and $93.2 million in the comparable 2005 periods; Operating revenues of $133.0 million for the quarter and $436.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, a 10% and 12% increase from $120.9 million and $389.6 million in the comparable 2005 periods; and EBITDA of $64.1 million for the quarter and $232.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, a 62% and 24% increase from $39.6 million and $188.3 million in the comparable 2005 periods. Operating results for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2006 were driven primarily by the following: [1] Continued strong environment for park-and-loan and storage services due to favorable natural gas price spreads and high volatility in the forward price of natural gas; [2] Strong demand for firm transportation services due to wide natural gas basis differentials primarily between South and East Texas and other points on the Partnership's system, offset by lower interruptible transportation services; [3] A $3.5 million one-time expense relating to the implementation of a cost reduction program at the Partnership's Texas Gas subsidiary, substantially offset by cost savings from the program; and [4] A favorable variance in operating expenses in 2006 of $4.6 million for the third quarter and $8.7 million year-to-date resulting from the 2005 hurricanes. Expansion capital expenditures were $62.1 million for the quarter and $81.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006. Maintenance capital expenditures were $7.1 million for the quarter and $38.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006. The MLPs that will Increase Distributions: On 9-21 ETP increased its distribution to $0.75/unit payable 10-16 to unitholders of record on 10-05. On 10-12 EPD increased its distribution to $0.46/unit payable 11-08 to unitholders of record on 10-31. On 10-18 CPNO increased its distribution to $0.75/unit [from $0.675] payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-01. On 10-20 TCLP declared a distribution of $0.60/unit [from $0.575/unit] payable 11-14 to unitholders of 10-31. On 10-20 OKS declared a distribution of $0.97/unit [from $0.95/unit] payable 11-14 to unitholders of 10-31. On 10-23 BWP increased its distributions from $0.38/unit to $0.40/unit, payable 11-06 to unitholders of 10-30. On 10-23 HEP increased its distributions from $0.655/unit to $0.665/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-03. On 10-23 SXL increased its distributions from $0.775/unit to $0.7875/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-07. On 10-23 XTEX increased its distributions from $0.54/unit to $0.55/unit, payable 11-15 to unitholders of 11-01. On 10-23 XTXI increased its distributions from $0.62/unit to $0.64/unit, payable 11-15 to unitholders of 11-01. On 10-24 PAA increased its distributions from $0.73/unit to $0.75/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-03. On 10-24 HLND increased its distributions from $0.70/unit to $0.675/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-06. On 10-24 HPGP announced that it will have an inital distributions of $0.2025/unit, payable 2-19 to unitholders of 2-05. On 10-25 WPZ increased its distributions from $0.425/unit to $0.45/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-06. On 10-25 MWE increased its distributions from $0.97/unit to $0.92/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-03. On 10-26 MMP increased its distributions from $0.5775/unit to $0.59/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-07. On 10-27 KSP increased its distributions from $0.62/unit to $0.64/unit, payable 11-15 to unitholders of 11-09. On 10-27 BPL increased its distributions from $0.76/unit to $0.775/unit, payable 11-30 to unitholders of 11-06. On 10-30 VLI increased its distributions from $0.855/unit to $0.915/unit, payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-07. APL, EEP, KMP, PPX, TLP & TPP Fail to Increase Distribution On 10-13 TEPPCO declared a distribution of $0.675/unit payable 11-7 to unitholders of 10-31. On 10-18 Kinder Morgan declared a distribution $0.81 payable 11-14 to unitholders of 10-31. On 10-19 TLP declared a distribution of $0.43/unit payable 11-7 to the unitholders of 10-31. On 10-20 PPX declared a distribution of $0.5675/unit payable 11-14 to unitholders of 10-31. On 10-27 EEP declared a distribution of $0.925/unit payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-06. On 10-27 APL declared a distribution of $0.85/unit payable 11-14 to unitholders of 11-07. On 10-04 KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Initiated coverage of XTEX at Buy. On 10-05 RBC Capital Mkts Initiated coverage of BWP at Outperform. On 10-16 Citigroup Downgraded USS from Hold to Sell. On 10-17 Deutsche Securities Initiated coverage of TGP at Buy. On 10-18 Credit Suisse Initiated coverage of EEP at Outperform, HEP at Neutral, PAA at Neutral, TPP at Neutral and VLI at Outperform. On 10-18 Morgan Stanley Initiated coverage of HEP Equal-weight and ETP at Overweight. On 10-18 Wachovia Downgraded XTXI from Outperform to Market Perform and Downgraded OKS from Outperform to Market Perform, but Upgraded KMP from Market Perform to Outperform. On 10-19 Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded KMP from Buy to Hold. On 9-06 UBS cut ETP To Neutral. On 9-13 Wachovia Initiated coverage of VLI at Market Perform. On 9-13 Merrill Lynch raised its rating on Magellan Midstream Holdings [MGG] to "buy" from "neutral." In a research note, the brokerage said it sees the energy company as attractive in the general partnership space, driven by growth prospects at its underlying master limited partnership, among other factors. Also on 9-13 Hiland Holdings GP LP, which owns a 57% limited partner interest in natural gas processor Hiland Partners LP [HLND], cut the size of its planned initial public offering to 7 million common units from 8.7 million common units. On 9-27 Lehman Brothers Downgraded XTEX from Overweight to Equal-weight. On 10-27 Atlas Pipeline Holdings [AHD], which owns the general partner interest and a 11.4% limited partner interest in Atlas Pipeline Partners [APL], reported that it has declared its quarterly cash distribution for Q3-06 of $0.17 per common limited partner unit, which represents a pro-rated distribution of $0.24 per common unit for the period from July 26, 2006, the date of our initial public offering, through September 30, 2006. On 10-27 MainLine Management LLC, the general partner of Buckeye GP Holdings [BGH] reported financial results for Q3-06. Revenue increased to $116.5 million from revenue of $102.4 million in Q3-05. Q3-06 operating income was $40.3 million compared to $39.7 million in Q3-05. The Partnership's Q3-06 net income was $1.5 million compared with net income of $2.5 million in Q3-05. BGH declared an initial quarterly cash distribution of $0.217/unit. The announced quarterly distribution represents a $0.012 or 5.8% increase from the expected quarterly distribution rate of $0.205 per unit, or $0.82 per unit on an annual basis, set forth in BGH's IPO prospectus dated August 3, 2006. On 10-24 HPGP announced that it will have an inital distributions of $0.2025/unit, payable 2-19 to unitholders of 2-05. Hiland Holdings GP, LP owns the two percent general partner interest, a 57 percent limited partner interest, and the incentive distribution rights of Hiland Partners, LP. On 10-12 Enterprise GP Holdings announced an increase in its quarterly cash distribution to partners to $0.335 per common unit, or $1.34 per common unit on an annual basis. The cash distribution will be paid on November 9 to unitholders of record as of October 31, 2006. This distribution represents an 8.1% increase over the $0.31 per unit quarterly distribution paid with respect to the second quarter of 2006 and a 34% increase over the $0.25 per unit expected initial quarterly distribution as stated in the prospectus dated August 23, 2005. On 9-25 Energy Transfer Equity announced a $0.30 increase in the annual cash distribution - raising the annual distribution rate per unit to $1.25, a 31% increase, making the quarterly distribution $0.3125/unit. The distribution will be paid on 10-19, to Unitholders of record as of 10-05-06. On 10-06 Energy Income and Growth Fund [FEN] declared its regularly scheduled quarterly distribution of $0.355, payable on October 31 to shareholders of record on October 18. On 10-05 Fiduciary/Claymore MLP Opportunity Fund [FMO] declared its quarterly dividend of $0.3125 per share [no change]. Dividends will be paid on October 31, 2006 to shareholders of record as of October 13, 2006. On 9-15 Kayne Anderson MLP Investment Company [KYN] declared its quarterly dividend of $0.45/share payable on 10-13 to stockholders of record on 10-04. On 9-15 Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund [KYE] declared its quarterly dividend of $0.44/share [no change] payable on October 13 to shareholders of record on October 4. NOTE #1: This page is ment to be a supplement for those already getting monthly sector updates from their broker. I hope to provide more timely data - and cover a wider array of stocks and different valuation metrics. Data entry errors sporadically happen. These supplemental stats omit metrics like Debt/Market Cap and the GP/LP split ratios - but YOU should not. NOTE #2: The operator of this site owns units in BWP, EPD, ETP, MWE and PAA, and units in GP ETE - and this could distort the coverage of those MLPs. Candidates for future acquisition include CPNO and HLND - so news on those will disproportionately draw my attention. Those MLPs with slower distribution growth may have coverage that is slighted. NOTE #3: For MLPs to be in my coverage universe, I must be able to find DCF and EPS estimates for them, they must have been in existence since the first of the coverage year. This is why DPM, GEL and RGNC are not in the universe, and why BWP, HLND, TGP, TLP, USS and WPZ 'qualified' to be added in 2006. NOTE #4: Those wishing to contribute DCF data to this site can do so by contacting Bob Martin at factoids@flash.net -- The only way we are going to get consensus DCF stats is if we build them ourselves, and that takes a team effort. The DCF numbers in the first spreadsheet and in the Forecaster spreadsheet users consensus DCF data that this site generates from three analysts/brokerages. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||