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Shopping Center & Other Retail Update -- 5-31-06

Mall Update for 5-31-06


Monthly Rating Changes

    On 5-15 Wachovia Upgraded IRC from Underperform to Outperform - Wachovia has the only analyst covering IRC. On 5-26 UBS Upgraded REG from Neutral to Buy, Upgraded TCO from Reduce to Neutral, and Upgraded GGP from Neutral to Buy. On 5-25 Citigroup Upgraded AKR from Sell to Hold. On 5-15 BB&T Raises Equity One To Buy From Hold. On 5-12 Equity One (EQY) declared a special dividend of $1 a share, payable June 30 to shareholders of record as of June 16. The special dividend is attributable to its recent closing of the sale of 29 Texas properties to a joint venture in which it still holds a 20% interest. On 5-02 JP Morgan Cuts CBL to Neutral From Overweight.


News Update

Vacancy & Sales Update    Ryan Chittum, WSJ 5-17
    Vacancy rates are low, at 5.5% for malls and 6.9% for strip malls for the first quarter, according to Reis. Rents are rising modestly in both sectors and demand from retailers is solid. Sales per square foot went up 5% to an average of $253 at all shopping centers last year and jumped 8% to an average $431 at properties owned by regional mall REITs, according to Bear Stearns REIT analyst Ross Smotrich. Luxury-mall owner Taubman Centers Inc.. became the first landlord to top $500 a foot, ending 2005 at $508.
    Construction of new centers is picking up but is still restrained, especially when compared to the average over the past 25-plus years. Last year, developers built 861 shopping centers containing 106.5 million square feet of space, well below the historical average of 177 million square feet a year, according to the Bear Stearns report. That's a 1.7% increase in a six-billion-square-foot retail market. Almost no enclosed malls are being built these days. Instead the focus has shifted to so-called lifestyle centers.


Retail Property Demand Strong, Despite Weaker Forecast    Ilaina Jonas, Reuters 5-23
    Soaring demand for U.S. retail real estate will start to sputter next year as higher interest rates and energy prices take a bite out of spending, according to a report released Tuesday by brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap. However, the darkening clouds seemed lost on the nearly 45,000 developers, retailers, restaurant owners attending a three-day International Council of Shopping Centers' annual convention in Las Vegas.
    "This is the kickoff for 2007," Stephen Sterrett, CFO of SPG said of the convention. About 25% of leases for 2007 are expected to be originated or signed during the event. Despite higher gasoline prices that could cut into spending and higher interest rates that can make consumer and business borrowing more costly, retailers were hungry for space, brokers said.
    "They're all looking for space," said Greg Maloney, chief executive and president of Jones Lang LaSalle's retail division. "I haven't heard of anyone altering their plans," he said. Anecdotally, retailers expect Q2 sales to be about flat with last year but rev up in the third and fourth quarters, Maloney said.
    As the housing market has cooled, the demand for retail real estate is expected to follow, said Hessam Nadji, Marcus & Millichap managing director of research services. But it won't collapse because tighter lending practices have all but eliminated speculative building. Most retail development has been driven by demand from tenants, he said. "Two things are happening," he said. "The job market now has another year behind it of very healthy growth, and retail absorption has been very healthy. Store closures fell by 35% in the last 12 months." But Marcus & Millichap sees job growth slackening in the second half of the year, and expects expect retail growth to slow to 6% in 2006 from 8.5% in 2005.
    Clay Smith, president of Brokerage Services for Staubach Retail, which represents both landlords and tenants, said many tenants this year want space in town centers. The open-air developments are usually built in higher-end suburbs and include stores, restaurants and entertainment centers and parks where people can meet. Many markets that had been left out of the robust retail frenzy of the past three years have seen demand surge.
    Capitalization rates, which are yields on real estate and move in the opposite direction of prices, are going up for properties in weaker markets and lower quality real estate. That follows about three years of declining "cap rates" and rising prices. Maloney estimates cap rates for those properties will rise about 50 basis points by the time today's deals are completed.

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