|
Factoids Yahoo Banks Excite Banks Banking News Bankstocks.com 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun6 May April Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2003 Updates Dec Nov Oct |
Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 17% to 77%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. Bank of Oklahoma Receives High Ratings from Moody's Businesswire 3-06 Bank of Oklahoma and it's parent company, BOK Financial, recently received upgraded ratings from Moody's Investors Service. Bank of Oklahoma is now rated A-1/Stable Outlook and was formerly rated A-3/Positive Outlook. BOK Financial is now rated A-2/Stable Outlook and was formerly rated Baa1/Positive Outlook. Additionally, Bank of Oklahoma's short-term rating was upgraded from P-2 to P-1, the highest short-term rating offered by Moody's. Home Builders May Bear Brunt Of Banks' Angst Justin Lahar, WSJ 3-26 Banks' trouble with the housing downturn may extend well beyond the loans they provide to home buyers. Check out their business with home builders. Blindsided by how deep the problems with risky "subprime" mortgages had gotten, investors regained some composure last week -- especially after the Federal Reserve raised the possibility of rate cuts by acknowledging that the economy is in less-than-stellar shape. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recaptured much of its losses since the initial downturn late last month. Bank shares, which had taken a greater hit than many other sectors, fared even better, with the Dow Jones U.S. Banks index rising 3.6%. Despite the bounceback, and even with the reams of subprime reports Wall Street analysts have been producing, nobody is sure how bad the trouble with risky mortgages will get and what sort of exposure to the loans banks will bear. What's more, a lurking issue has gone largely unnoticed: banks' loans to home builders. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., U.S. banks held $565 billion in real-estate construction and development loans at the end of last year, more than double the $272 billion held at the end of 2003. The FDIC doesn't break out loans for residential construction (read: risky) versus commercial projects (not so risky). But it's a good guess that the bulk of the increase in banks' construction loans came from housing. According to the Commerce Department, residential construction is a bigger business and has grown quicker. Proportionally speaking, then, it's also a good guess that an increase in late payments on construction loans is coming from the residential side -- especially when considering that it's residential builders, not commercial developers, that are really in the dumps these days. In the fourth quarter, $5.3 billion in construction loans were 30 to 89 days past due, according to the FDIC, up from $2.8 billion a year ago. Overall, construction loans accounted for 7.8% of loans outstanding in the fourth quarter, up from 2.9% a decade earlier. But banks don't share that exposure equally, points out Matthew Anderson, a partner at California-based economic and real-estate consulting firm Foresight Analytics. Smaller regional banks, especially those covering Florida and other areas where housing was particularly hot, appear to have the largest exposures relative to their loan holdings. Combing through the FDIC figures, he found 40 banks whose construction loans outstanding amounted to $1 billion or more and accounted for 20% or more of their total loans outstanding. Mr. Anderson doesn't see anything like the fallout from the 1990s' savings-and-loan crisis (also real-estate-induced). Still, "you certainly have some institutions that have a big exposure," he says. "There will be some institutions that do have serious problems." That's not just bad news for the banks. It could be more bad news for the home builders. Building a house is expensive, and loans are crucial for covering costs that accrue before that house gets sold. If banks get nervous about making construction loans, the bust for builders may have only just begun. Ratings & Dividend Changes On 3-05 Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgraded FHN from Market Perform to Sell. On 3-06 AG Edwards Upgraded RF from Sell to Hold. On 3-12 Cohen Bros Downgraded PRSP from Buy to Hold. On 3-14 Cohen Bros Upgraded FNB from Hold to Buy. On 2-13 Punk, Ziegel & Co Initiated coverage of UMPQ at Market Perform. On 2-22 JP Morgan Initiated coverage of ZION at Overweight. On 2-21 Compass [CBSS]announced a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share, a 10% increase, payable on April 2nd to shareholders of 3-15-07. On 2-21 FNB announced a dividend 23.5 cents per share, payable on March 15th to shareholders of 3-04-07. On 2-15 Piper Jaffray Upgraded ZION from Market Perform to Outperform. On 1-04 BMO Capital Markets Downgraded BOKF from Outperform to Market Perform. On 1-23 Sterne Agee Downgraded CBSS from Buy to Hold. On 1-24 Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Downgraded CYN from Buy to Neutral and Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded CYN from Buy to Hold. On 1-25 Cohen Bros Upgraded PRSP from Hold to Buy. On 1-26 Banc of America Sec Upgraded ZION from Neutral to Buy. On 1-26 JP Morgan Upgraded WTNY from Underweight to Neutral and Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded WTNY from Neutral to Buy. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |