Regional Bank Valuation Update
Valuation and Performance Spreadsheets for: ASBC, BBT, CBCF, CBH, CMA, FITB,
FMER, FULT, HBAN, MI, MTB, NAL, NCC, NTRS, ONB, SKYF, SNV, STT, SUSQ, USB, VLY, WL

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North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 9-28-07


Mid-Cap Bank News

Dividend Plays Shine When Fed Cuts     TheStreet.Com 8-17
    "When the Federal Reserve starts cutting, I like to look for stocks with high dividends, simply because people will be flushed out of cash," Jim Cramer said on TheStreet.com TV's Wall Street Confidential on 8-17. "Cash makes no sense, there is no upside," Cramer said. "Rates are obviously now headed down, and any stock that has a good dividend is now headed up." Cramer asked David Peltier, research manager at TheStreet.com, for three dividend-raising names he likes in the current environment. "I still do like US Bancorp," a stock that is putting 80% of its earnings into buybacks and dividends, Peltier replied. Warren Buffett just doubled his stake in USB, and as Buffett "was the best bank buyer in the last bank crisis," according to Cramer, Peltier said he would definitely want to follow Buffett on this stock.


Ratings & Dividend Changes     On 9-07 Bernstein Upgraded FITB from Underperform to Market Perform. On 9-12 Credit Suisse Initiated BBT at Outperform. On 9-14 Keefe Bruyette Upgraded FITB from Underperform to Market Perform. On 9-19 Lehman Brothers Upgraded ASBC from Underweight to Equal-weight. On 9-27 Bernstein Initiated USB at Outperform. On 9-28 Keefe Bruyette Upgraded SNV from Market Perform to Outperform.

    Small-cap banks are poised to gradually rise as short-term interest rates decline and the yield curve steepens, Lehman Brothers said on 9-19, as it upgraded the sector to neutral from negative. Even after the sharp rally on Tuesday, these banks have room to run, Lehman said. The "average potential upside for 19 companies under coverage is 5% versus [Tuesday's] close," analyst Andrea Jao said in a note. Lehman had downgraded the sector early in July 2006 "due to a deteriorating operating environment (net-interest-margin pressure and credit that could not get any better) as well as peak valuations (relative [price-earnings multiple] 110% of the S&P 500," the firm said. The brokerage upgraded Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) Pacific Cap Bancorp, (PCBC) and Webster Financial (WBS) to equal weight from underweight. It dowgraded Cullen/Frost (CFR) and Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) to equal weight from overweight and SVB Financial (SIVB) to underweight from equal weight.

    On 9-05 SNV declared a dividend of 20.5 cents/share payable Oct. 1 to shareholders of record Sept. 20. On 9-18 USB declared a dividend of $0.40/share payable October 15 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 28, 2007.

    On 7-26 ONB declared a dividend of $.22/share payable September 18, 2007, to shareholders of record September 4, 2007. On 8-02 Deutsche Securities Upgraded MI from Hold to Buy. On 8-06 AG Edwards Upgraded CMA from Hold to Buy. On 8-13 Deutsche Securities Upgraded MCA from Sell to Hold. On 8-13 Deutsche Securities Upgraded USB from Sell to Hold with a $31 price target, writing that "the bank has a strong balance sheet, thanks to conservative loan underwriting". On 8-20 BMO Capital Markets Upgraded NCC from Underperform to Market Perform.
    On 8-23 Merrill Lynch downgraded a raft of mid-cap regional banks citing a range of factors including lower earnings expectations and the potential for margin erosion at some of the banks if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The broker said banks with balance sheets that are very "asset sensitive" -- meaning their assets reprice more quickly than liabilities -- could face margin pressure. It downgraded City National [CYN], Zions Bancorporation [ZION], Associated Banc-Corp [ASBC], Cullen/Frost Bankers [CFR], Cathay General Bancorp [CATY], FirstMerit [FMER], First Midwest Bancorp [FMBI] and Texas Capital Bancshares [TCBI] all to sell from neutral. It also downgraded SVB Financial Group [SIVB] to sell from buy. On 8-30 Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded BBT from Neutral to Buy.

    On 8-09 HBAN declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.4921875 per share, payable 10-01-07, to shareholders of record on 8-20-07. On 8-15 VLY declared a dividend of $0.21/share will be paid on October 1, 2007 to shareholders of record on September 7, 2007. On 8-16 FMER declared a dividend of $0.29/share payable September 17, 2007, to shareholders of record on August 27, 2007. On 8-16 MI declared a dividend of $0.31/share payable on September 14, 2007, to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 31, 2007. On 8-22 BBT declared a dividend of 46 cents/share payable 11-01 to shareholders of 10-12-07.


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