|
Factoids Yahoo Banks Excite Banks Banking News Bankstocks.com 2007 Updates May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun6 May April Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2003 Updates Dec Nov Oct |
Regional banks live in a 'what have you done for me lately' kind of world. For proof, of the 16 banks that had their 2007 EPS estimate increases or decreases of less than 4% since the first of the year, 13 beat the sector median yearly price gain - which is a loss of 6.5% - and the average total return of that group is 0.1% [at least it was positive]. Of the 25 that had EPS estimate decreases of more than 4%, only 7 of that 25 beat the sector median yearly price gain and the group's total return for the year is -10.95%. To understand the year to date price movements - look at EPS revisions. Every other metric failed to be very predictive. A good example is Q1-07 ending net interest margins. The 21 banks that had NIMs above 3.6% had an average a total return of -7.26% while the group of 21 banks that had NIMs below 3.6% had an average total return of -3.88%. Commentators have said that the individual investor can have superior long term returns by investing in indiviual stocks if they keep their long term focus. The stats for the first two quarters of 2007 show that the market did not have a long term focus. So the lack of predictivity so far this year of the metrics I follow could thus be taken as a good sign using such logic. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |