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MessageBoard Navigator Prior Updates Jan 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Intro MLP & Energy News Oil Online Petro News Yahoo News Blogs & Groups Google Group MLP Blog Util/MLP Blog MLP Intro Wachovia Primer R James Primer Alerian Primer Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Factoids Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan BDC Updates Dec Nov |
On 3-01 I updated the CAGRs, DCFs [and added the 08 DCFs], EPSs [8 MLP still lack '08 EPS estimates at Yahoo] and target prices - and that caused some significant changes in the valuation metrics. EROC, GEL and KMP have had significant decreases in their 2007 EPS estimates. These estimate changes, along with changes in the analyst CAGRs, did result in minor changes to this site's CAGR estimates. I expect 08 EPS estimates will be added mid-March. One other note: There were a lot of analyst downgrades [or coverage initiations that lowered the consesus ratings] to MLPs last month - examples: APL, BPL, BWP, ETP, EROC, MMP, MWE, PAA, SXL, XTEX, TGP and USS. This should not comes as a surprise, due to the spread of MLPs to the ten year treasury still being very low, leading analysts to downgrade on the basis of valuation. The spreadsheet below uses month ending data. The 'monthly price change' column is for unit price changes, while the 'year to date' stats is for total return [distributions plus unit price gains]. This explains the jumps in year to date gains in the distribution heavy months of February, May, August and November without similar gains in those month's unit prices. CEF numbers are for MLP and MLP-hybrid Closed-End Funds. The 'Ten Year Yield' numbers are for the US Treasury. Tracking the spread of the average MLP's yield to the Treasury [which I have done since January of 2005] has been a useful tool for timing of MLP purchases - according to this metric, buy MLPs when the spread is high. I have tracked the CEF spread since April 2006, and it is too early to tell if this number is meaningful. A new addition to this data is the CEF Price/NAV ratio, which is used in academia to measure investor sentiment. According to theory, buy MLPs when the price is at the largest discount to NAV.
HEP's Net Income Rises PRNewswire 2-05 Holly Energy Partners reported Q4-06 net income of $9.7 million ($0.56/unit) as compared to $7.2 million ($0.43/unit) for Q4-05. Net income for 2006 was $27.5 million ($1.60/unit) compared to $26.8 million ($1.70/unit) for 2005. The increase in Q4 was principally due to increases in volumes transported by affiliates on both our intermediate and refined product pipeline systems following the completion in June of an expansion of the Navajo refinery, combined with the effects of the annual tariff increases on our pipelines and the recognition of certain previously deferred revenue. Partially offsetting these positive factors was a decrease in volumes transported by third parties on our refined product pipeline systems. Revenues of $25.3 million for Q4-06 were $2.7 million higher than the $22.6 million for Q4-05. Revenues of $89.2 million for 2006 were $9.1 million greater than the $80.1 million for 2005. USS' Net Income Falls Market Wire 2-06 U.S. Shipping Partners reported net income for 2006 of $5.9 million compared to $18.1 million for 2005, while EBITDA increased to $49.5 million in 2006 from $48.5 million in 2005. The results for 2006 were impacted by a higher number of required regulatory drydocking days. Four vessels underwent drydocking in 2006 compared to two vessels in 2005, resulting in an additional 87 drydocking days. Although there is no revenue earned during drydocking days, vessel expenses continue to be incurred on a reduced basis. Net income per basic and diluted limited partnership unit for 2006 was $0.37, compared to $1.28 for 2005. For Q4-06, revenues increased $4.7 million to $36.8 million. The increase was attributable to the addition of the Sea Venture, which USS placed into service in June 2006, and an increase in days worked due to the timing of drydocks. For Q4-06, USS recorded a net loss of $0.9 million compared to net income of $1.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005. The decrease is principally attributable to an increase in interest expense, net of interest income, of $3.0 million, partially offset by an increase in operating income of $0.9 million. EBITDA was $11.7 million, an increase of $2.2 million from Q4-05. TPP's Net Income Rises Businesswire 2-06 TEPPCO Partners [TPP] reported record net income of $56.6 million [$0.53/unit] for Q4-06, representing a 27% increase from net income of $44.6 million [$0.45/unit] for Q4-05. Net income for 2006 increased 24% to a record $202.1 million [$1.96/unit] compared with $162.6 million [$1.71/unit] for 2005. Income from continuing operations for the 12 months ended December 31, 2006, which excludes the impact of a $17.9 million gain from the sale of the Pioneer natural gas processing plant, was $182.7 million, representing a 15% increase, compared with income from continuing operations of $159.4 million for the prior year. EBITDA from continuing operations increased by 14% or $14.0 million, to a record $114.3 million for Q4-06, compared with $100.3 million for Q4-05. EBITDA from continuing operations increased by 9%, or $32.8 million, to a record $412.7 million for 2006, compared with $379.9 million for 2005. BWP's Q4-06 Net Income Falls Businesswire 2-12 Boardwalk Pipeline Partners announced Income before income taxes of $65.2 million for Q4-06 and $197.8 million for 2006, a 3% decrease and 23% increase from $67.3 million and $160.5 million in the comparable 2005 periods. Operating revenues of $171.5 million for Q4 and $607.6 million for 2006, a slight increase for the quarter and 8% increase for the year from $170.9 million and $560.5 million in the comparable 2005 periods. EBITDA for Q4-06 was $98.5 million and $331.5 million for 2006, a 2% decrease and 15% increase from $100.7 million and $289.0 million in the comparable 2005 periods. BWP had higher EBITDA of $14.8 million and $23.5 million, respectively, in Q4-06 and year 2006 resulting from hurricane-related insurance recoveries in the fourth quarter of 2006 and a reduction in hurricane-related casualty losses incurred in Q3-05 and Q4-05. Expansion capital expenditures were $74.4 million for the quarter and $158.6 million for year 2006. Maintenance capital expenditures were $2.1 million for the quarter and $38.1 million for 2006. Earnings per limited partner unit for Q4 and year 2006 of $0.55 and $1.85, respectively. TCLP's Q4-06 Net Income Falls Market Wire 2-15 TC PipeLines reported Q4-06 net income of $11.3 million [$0.60/unit] compared to $12.3 million [$0.65/unit] for Q4-05. The decrease in net income is primarily due to increased financial charges on higher outstanding debt balances and lower earnings from Tuscarora Gas Transmission Company (Tuscarora), partially offset by the net positive impact resulting from the additional 20% general partner interest in Northern Border Pipeline Company (Northern Border Pipeline). In Q4-06, TCLP received cash distributions from its investments of $25.8 million, of which $9.7 million relates to the additional interest in Northern Border Pipeline. The total cash distributions of $25.8 million received in Q4-06 represent a $6.7 million increase compared to Q4-05. For 2006 TCLP received cash distributions from its investments of $88.1 million, of which $26.7 million relates to the additional interest in Northern Border Pipeline. The total cash distributions of $88.1 million received in 2006 represent an $18.9 million increase compared to 2005. TCLP incurred financing and other costs of $18.2 million in 2006 compared to $3.0 million in 2005. The total cash distributions from Northern Border Pipeline and Tuscarora net of Partnership costs increased $3.7 million to $69.9 million in 2006 from $66.2 million in 2005. Valero to Change Name to NuStar Business Wire 2-16 Valero L.P. (VLI) and Valero GP Holdings (VEH) will change their names to NuStar Energy, L.P. (NS) and NuStar GP Holdings, LLC (NGP) on April 2nd as a result of the separation from Valero Energy Corporation. Valero Energy no longer owns any financial interest in Valero L.P. or Valero GP Holdings. In the past five years, Valero L.P. has grown from 160 employees to 1,300; from $387 million in assets to nearly $3.5 billion; and from $46 million in net income to $133 million in 2006. Combined, Valero GP Holdings and Valero L.P. have a market cap of over $4 billion. Valero L.P.'s units have had a total return of over 260% since the company's initial public offering in 2001. HLND Reports PRNewswire 2-20 Hiland Partners, LP reported quarterly net income for the three months ended December 31, 2006 of $3.6 million compared to net income of $4.1 million for the three months ended December 31, 2005, a decrease of 14%. This decrease is primarily due to additional depreciation expense and interest expense incurred as a result of the acquisition of the Kinta Area gathering assets effective May 1, 2006. Net income per limited partner unit-basic for the fourth quarter of 2006 was $0.30 per unit compared to net income of $0.50 per unit in the corresponding quarter in 2005. For 2006, Hiland Partners, LP reported net income of $14.7 million compared to net income of $10.3 million for 2005, an increase of 42%. Net income per limited partner unit-basic for 2006 was $1.37 per unit compared to net income of $1.33 per unit for 2005. Hiland Holdings GP, LP reported quarterly net income for the three months ended December 31, 2006 of $1.8 million ($0.08 per limited partner unit-basic) compared to net income of $0.3 million for the three months ended December 31, 2005. Hiland Holdings GP, LP, including its predecessor, Hiland Partners GP, LLC, reported net income of $2.4 million for 2006, compared to net income of $0.9 million for 2005. Net income before minority interest was $12.5 million for 2006 compared to $10.3 million for 2005. TGP Reports Business Wire 2-21 Teekay LNG Partners L.P. reported a net loss of $7.4 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, compared to net income of $12.7 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2005. The results for the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2005 included a foreign currency translation loss of $15.1 million and a gain of $5.2 million, respectively, relating to long-term debt denominated in Euros. During Q4-06, TGP generated $17.6 million of distributable cash flow, compared to $18.6 million for Q3-06, and $15.7 million for Q4-05. Net loss for 2006 was $9.6 million, compared to net income of $79.5 million in 2005. The results for 2006 included a foreign currency translation loss of $39.5 million relating to long-term debt denominated in Euros. The Partnership is updating its 2007 distribution guidance to reflect the delivery of the RasGas II vessels earlier than previously anticipated, and the acquisition of the Dania Spirit in January 2007. Teekay LNG now anticipates raising its quarterly cash distribution by 15% to $0.53 per unit ($2.12/unit annualized), commencing with the distribution relating to Q2-07. Transactions: [1] On October 31, 2006, TGP acquired Teekay Shipping Corporation's (Teekay) 70% interest in Teekay Nakilat Corporation, which owns three 151,700 cubic meter LNG newbuilding carriers that are subject to capital leases. The first two vessels delivered on October 31, 2006 and January 2, 2007, respectively, and the third newbuilding is scheduled to deliver in late February of 2007. [2] TGP has agreed to acquire Teekay's 40% interest in four 217,000 cubic meter LNG newbuilding carriers scheduled to deliver during the second quarter of 2008. [3] On December 6, 2006, TGP agreed to acquire four LPG carriers for a total cost of $106 million. All four vessels are subject to long-term fixed-rate time-charters, which are expected to generate approximately $11.6 million per annum in cash flow. Three of the LPG carriers are currently under construction with delivery expected in early 2008 and mid-2009. The fourth vessel was acquired in January 2007. [4] TGP agreed to acquire Teekay's 70% interest in two 155,000 cubic meter LNG newbuilding carriers scheduled to deliver during late 2008 and early 2009. DPM Reports PRNewswire 2-21 DCP Midstream Partners, LP reported net income of $10.6 million [$0.55/unit] in Q4-06 compared to $19.2 million for Q4-05. For 2006, DPM reported net income of $33.0 million [$1.90/unit] compared to $44.5 million for 2005. DPM's distributable cash flow for Q4-06 was $13.0 million, or 1.7 times the amount required to cover its current distribution rate to the general and limited partners. DPM's distributable cash flow for 2006 was $44.0 million, or 1.6 times the amount required to cover its current distribution rate to the general and limited partners. EBITDA for Q4-06 was $15.6 million, compared to $25.8 million in Q4-05. The decrease is primarily attributable to lower marketing margins across the Pelico intrastate pipeline system. EBITDA for 2006 was $51.0 million, compared to $60.8 million in 2005. Natural Gas Services segment's gross margin decreased $8.2 million to $19.4 million for Q4-06, from $27.6 million for Q4-05. During Q4-05, DPM was able to benefit from higher marketing margins and increased throughput related to atypical natural gas prices. Wholesale Propane Logistics segment's gross margin increased $0.9 million to $6.9 million for Q4-06 from $6.0 million for Q4-05 due primarily to greater unit margins, partially offset by decreased volumes. NGL Logistics segment's gross margin related to our Seabreeze pipeline was $0.9 million for Q4-06 compared to $1.1 million for Q4-05 primarily due to changes in contract mix. WPZ Reports PRNewswire 2-21 Williams Partners L.P. announced 2006 net income of $146.9 million [$1.62/unit] compared with a 2005 net income of $118.4 million [44 cents/unit]. For Q4-06, Williams Partners reported net income of $32.2 million [45 cents/unit] compared with Q4-05 net income of $32.2 million [46 cents/unit]. Distributable cash flow for Williams Partners and its 40 percent interest in Discovery totaled $184.4 million for 2006, compared to $166.4 million for 2005. For Q4-06, WPZ totaled $42.3 million in distributable cash flow, compared with $43.2 million for Q4-05. MWE/MWP Review Restructuring Alternatives PRNewswire 2-21 The Board of the General Partner of MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. announced that it has asked its Conflicts Committee to review and evaluate a possible acquisition of, business combination with, or other potential restructuring transaction with MarkWest Hydrocarbon. The General Partner's Board advised that there can be no assurance that this review process will result in any specific transaction. PAA Reports PRNewswire 2-21 Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. reported net income of $46.0 million [$0.36/unit] for Q4-06 and net income of $285.1 million [$2.88/unit] for 2006. Net income for Q4-05 was $53.7 million [$0.64/unit] and $217.8 million [$2.72/unit] for 2005. Q4-06 EBITDA was $111.5 million, an increase of 18% compared with $94.1 million for Q4-05. EBITDA for 2006 was $470.2 million, an increase of 30% over 2005's $360.7 million. APL Reports Marketwire 2-26 Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. reported record EBITDA of $80.0 million for the full year 2006, compared with $53.1 million in 2005, an increase of $26.9 million, or 51%, from the prior year. Net income for the full year 2006 was $33.7 million, an increase of 31% over the prior year. Revenues rose to a record level of $464.7 million, an increase of $93.2 million, or 25%, compared with the prior year. EBITDA for Q4-06 was $20.2 million compared with $21.3 million for Q4-05, a decrease of $1.1 million. Net income for Q4-06 was $7.5 million [$0.22/unit] compared with $10.9 million [$0.69/unit] for Q4-05. The Mid-Continent segment recognized total revenue of $109.2 million for Q4-06, a decrease of $19.1 million from Q4-05. This decrease was principally attributable to a decrease in commodity prices. Total revenue for the Appalachia system was $7.6 million for Q4-06, a 5% decrease from $8.0 million for Q4-05, due principally to a decrease in realized natural gas prices between periods, partially offset by higher throughput volume. OKS Reports PRNewswire 2-26 ONEOK Partners, L.P. reported net income of $445.2 million [$5.01/unit] for 2006 compared with $147.0 million [$2.93/unit] for 2005. The full year 2006 included a $113.9 million, or $1.51 per unit, gain from the sale of a 20 percent interest in Northern Border Pipeline Company. EBITDA was $728.6 million for 2006, compared with $372.0 million for 2005. Distributable cash flow (DCF) for 2006 was $369.0 million [$4.49/unit] compared with $183.1 million [$3.71/unit] for 2005. Q4-06 net income was $80.3 million [82 cents/unit] compared with $35.9 million [72 cents/unit] for Q4-05. Q4-06 EBITDA was $142.0 million, compared with $94.0 million in Q4-05. Q4-06 DCF was $89.6 million [93 cents/unit] compared with $41.9 million [84 cents/unit] in Q4-05. The natural gas liquids segment reported EBITDA of $110.1 million and operating income of $88.7 million for 2006. Net margins were $167.0 million, operating costs were $57.5 million, and depreciation and amortization expense was $20.7 million. The pipelines and storage segment reported EBITDA of $139.1 million for the full year 2006. Operating income was $107.9 million, net margins were $210.1 million and operating costs were $72.8 million. Depreciation and amortization expense was $30.3 million. The interstate natural gas pipeline segment contributed 2006 EBITDA of $245.6 million, compared with $285.9 million in 2005. Operating income for the full year decreased to $158.5 million from $214.2 million for 2005. On 2-01 Citigroup Upgraded VEH from Hold to Buy On 2-01 Credit Suisse Initiated coverage of APL at Neutral. On 2-01 Wachovia Downgraded APL from Outperform to Market Perform. On 2-02 Citigroup Downgraded BWP from Buy to Hold. On 2-06 AG Edwards Downgraded APL from Buy to Hold, Downgraded MWE from Buy to Hold, and Downgraded XTEX from Buy to Hold. On 2-14 RBC Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on BWP. On 2-16 Stifel Nicolaus Initiated WPZ at Buy, RBC Capital Markets Initiated WPZ at Top Pick, RBC Capital Markets Initiated BPL at Underperform, and Citigroup Downgraded TGP from Buy to Hold. On 2-23 Credit Suisse Downgraded HEP from Neutral to Underperform. On 2-27 AG Edwards Downgraded TGP from Buy to Hold. On 1-26 Raymond James cut BWP to Market Perform. On 1-26 Oppenheimer Initiated coverage of VEH at Neutral. On 1-30 Credit Suisse Initiated coverage of BWP at Outperform, initiated coverage of EPD at "outperform", and initiated coverage of ETP with a "neutral" rating. On 1-31 RBC Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on BWP. On 1-24 Atlas Energy Resources [ATN] declared its initial quarterly distribution of $0.06 per common unit, which represents a pro-rated distribution of $0.42/unit. This $0.06/unit distribution is payable 2-14 to holders of 2-07. [I used 42 cents to get the yield correct - and thus the total return is over-stated.] On 1-29 Constellation Energy Partners [CEP] announced a cash distribution for the period commencing on November 20, 2006 - the date of the closing of its initial public offering - and ending on December 31, 2006, of $0.2111 per common unit, payable on 2-14 to common unitholders of record on 2-07. the distribution represent $1.85/unit on an annualized basis. [I used 46.25 cents to get the yield correct - and thus the total return is over-stated.] On 1-28 Legacy Reserves LP [LGCY] announced a cash distribution for the fourth quarter of 2006 of $0.41 per unit, or $1.64 on an annualized basis, payable on February 14, 2007 to unitholders of record at the close of business on January 10, 2007. The 1-10 record date for this distribution precedes the 1-1-07 closing of Legacy Reserves LP's IPO. Accordingly, as stated in Legacy Reserves LP's final prospectus dated January 11, 2007, holders of units purchased in the initial public offering are not entitled to receive any distribution attributable to Q4-06 with respect to the units purchased in the IPO. [LGCY still lacks EPS estimates - but I wanted to note its IPO and note that its yield on 2-16, when it was at $24.05, was 6.82%. LGCY along with recent IPOs MVO and NAO are candidates for inclusion in this sector's list.] On 2-8 Wachovia Initiated coverage of ATN at Market Perform. On 2-01 KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Initiated coverage of ATN at Buy. On 1-22 RBC Capital Mkts Initiated coverage of ATN at Outperform. On 1-22 AG Edwards Initiated coverage of ATN at Buy. On 1-16 Wachovia Initiated coverage of CEP at Outperform. On 1-12 Oppenheimer Initiated coverage of EVEP at Buy. On 1-10 Deutsche Securities Initiated coverage of BBEP at Buy. Tortoise Capital Resources Announces $86.1 Million IPO PRNewswire 2-01 Tortoise Capital Resources [TTO], a closed-end management investment company focused on the U.S. energy infrastructure sector, IPOed 5,740,000 shares at $15.00 per share, raising $86.1 million. Tortoise Capital Resource's investment goal is to provide stockholders with a high level of total return, with an emphasis on dividends and dividend growth. The company intends to pursue its investment objective by investing primarily in privately-held and micro-cap public energy companies operating in the midstream and downstream segments, and to a lesser extent the upstream segment. The company has elected to be treated as a business development company. TTO is managed by Tortoise Capital Advisors, a registered investment advisor specializing in the energy infrastructure sector. Tortoise Capital Advisors had approximately $2.0 billion under management on Nov. 30, 2006, including the assets of three publicly-traded closed-end investment management companies (TYG, TYY & TYN) focused on the energy infrastructure sector. TTO appears similar to Kayne Anderson Energy Development Company [KED] that IPOed on Sept 20th and sold 10.0 million shares at $25 per share, raising gross proceeds of $250 million. As of November 30, 2006, KED had invested 44% of its net assets including approximately $63 million in MLPs and MLP affiliates, $43 million in fixed income securities and $135 million in repurchase agreements earning an average yield of 6.4%, 11.4% and 5.2%, respectively. KED's current partial period dividend [payable 1-12 to shareholders of record on 12-29-06] equates to a quarterly dividend per share rate of $0.28/share. This equates to a dividend yield of 4.5% on the IPO price of $25.00/share and a dividend yield of 5.0% on the closing price on December 14, 2006 of $22.44. On 2-01 Fiduciary/Claymore MLP Opportunity Fund [FMO] announced that it is increasing the quarterly dividend by 1.5% to $0.3325 per share, effective with the next distribution in April 2007. On 2-01 Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund [KYE] announced its net asset value at January 31, 2007. At January 31, 2007, the Fund's net assets were $827 million and its net asset value per share was $25.92 based on 31.9 million shares outstanding. On 2-01 Kayne Anderson MLP Investment Company [KYN] announced its net asset value at January 31, 2007. At January 31, 2007, the Company's net assets were $1.2 billion and its net asset value per share was $30.17, based on 38.3 million shares outstanding. On 2-12 TYG declared a dividend of $0.54 per share, compared to $0.53 in the previous quarter and $0.48 in the same quarter of the prior year. The dividend will be distributed on March 1, 2007 to stockholders of record on Feb. 22, 2007. This represents a 12.5 percent increase over the same quarter of the prior year, and a 1.9 percent increase over the distribution for the prior quarter. On 2-12 TYY declared a dividend of $0.40 per share, compared to $0.39 in the previous quarter. The dividend will be distributed on 3-01-07 to stockholders of record on 2-22-07. This represents a 2.6% increase over the distribution for the prior quarter. On 2-12 TYN declared a dividend of $0.35 per share, compared to $0.34 in the previous quarter. The dividend will be distributed on 3-01-07 to stockholders of record on 2-22-07. This represents a 2.9% increase over the distribution for the prior quarter. On 3-01 KYE announced its net asset value was $26.45 based on 31.9 million shares outstanding. As of February 28, 2007, equity and fixed income investments were 84% and 16%, respectively, of the Fund's total long-term investments of $1.1 billion. Long-term investments were comprised of MLPs and MLP Affiliates (46%), Canadian Income Trusts (20%), Marine Energy Transportation (16%), Coal Companies (6%) and U.S. Royalty Trusts and Other Energy Companies (12%). On 3-01 KYN announced its net asset value was $30.97, based on 38.3 million shares outstanding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||