Master Limited Partnerships Midstream Update
News & Investment Guide to Pipeline & Midstream MLPs or PTPs
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April 2007

     The spreadsheet below uses month ending data. The 'monthly price change' column is for unit price changes, while the 'year to date' stats is for total return. This explains the jumps in year to date gains in the distribution heavy months of February, May, August and November without similar gains in those month's unit prices. CEF numbers are for MLP and MLP-hybrid Closed-End Funds. The 'Ten Year Yield' numbers are for the US Treasury. Tracking the spread of the average MLP's yield to the Treasury has been a useful tool for timing of MLP purchases - buy MLPs when the spread is high. The CEF spread is used in academia to measure investor sentiment. Buy MLPs when the price is at the largest discount to NAV.


Ten YearSectorTen YearCEF AvCEFCEFMLP's MonthlyYear-to-Date
MonthYieldYieldSpreadYieldSpreadPr/NAVPrice ChangeTotal Return

April4.63%5.54% 895.54%096.39+6.82%+23.85%
March4.65%5.77%1125.67%1099.04+4.06%+12.22%
Feb4.57%5.96%1385.84%12103.32+2.00%+7.76%
Jan4.87%6.05%1235.97%08100.64+4.12%+4.17%

Dec4.70%6.28%1585.89%39102.53+2.57%+30.22%
Nov4.46%6.44%1986.02%42100.69+2.15%+27.21%
Oct4.60%6.58%1986.30%2898.73+4.59%+22.53%
Sept4.64%6.70%2066.39%3195.82-0.70%+17.18%
Aug4.73%6.65%1926.42%2396.69+2.24%+18.08%
July5.00%6.61%1616.45%1696.78+3.09%+13.41%
June5.15%6.82%1676.77%0597.59-0.80%+10.14%
May5.12%6.76%1646.69%07-0.35%+11.02%
April5.07%6.68%1616.63%05+0.04%+ 9.79%
March4.85%6.56%171x.xx%+2.13%+ 8.41%
Feb4.55%6.68%213x.xx%+0.04%+ 6.22%
Jan4.50%6.56%206x.xx%+4.44%+ 4.44%
Dec 054.40%6.91%252


MLP Midstream 4-30-07
    To see a spreadsheet showing the forecasted 2006 returns and the 2006 actual returns, click here.


April MLP Midstream News


BPP Reports Q2 Results    PRNewswire 4-26
     Buckeye GP LLC, the general partner of Buckeye Partners, reported net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $37.7 million, or $0.77 per LP unit, compared with net income of $23.0 million, or $0.60 per LP unit, reported for the first quarter of 2006. Revenue in the first quarter of 2007 increased by 18.1 percent to $124.9 million from revenue of $105.7 million in the first quarter of 2006. Operating income increased by 24.2 percent in the first quarter of 2007 to $50.3 million from $40.5 million in the first quarter of 2006. Net income in the first quarter of 2007 was $6.8 million higher than it would have been if the Partnership's limited partnership agreement and incentive compensation agreement had not been amended.

EDP Reports Q2 Results    Businesswire 4-26
    Enterprise Products Partners L.P. reported net income of $112 million for Q1-07 [$0.20/unit] compared to net income of $134 million [$0.28/unit] in Q1-06. The first quarter of 2006 included $10 million of recoveries from business interruption insurance. During Q1-07, increases in gross operating margin were more than offset by increases in depreciation and amortization expense, insurance, provision for income taxes, interest expense and minority interests compared to the first quarter of last year.
    Distributable cash flow generated in Q1-07 increased to $222 million from $218 million in Q-06. Distributable cash flow for Q1-07 provided 0.9 times coverage of the cash distribution to the limited partners. Revenue was approximately $3.3 billion for both Q1-07 and Q1-06. Gross operating margin for Q1-07 increased by 4% to $324 million from $313 million for Q1-06. Operating income reported in Q1-07 was $188 million compared to $194 million in Q1-06. EBITDA was $305 million for Q1-07 versus $301 million for Q1-06. Enterprise is scheduled to complete approximately $2.5 billion of growth capital projects in 2007 that should provide significant new sources of cash flow beginning later this year and in 2008.
    Gross operating margin for NGL Pipelines & Services increased 12% to $191 million in Q1-07 from $171 million in Q1-06, which included $8 million of recoveries under business interruption insurance. Enterprise's Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines and Services segment reported gross operating margin of $77 million in Q1-07 compared to $97 million in Q1-06. Gross operating margin from Enterprises' NGL fractionation business increased 50 percent to $26 million in Q1-07 from $17 million in Q1-06. Gross operating margin for the Offshore Pipelines & Services segment increased to $20 million in Q1-07 from to $17 million in Q1-06, which included $2 million of recoveries from business interruption insurance. Petrochemical Services - Gross operating margin for this segment increased 37 percent, to $38 million in Q1-07 from $28 million in Q1-06. Enterprise's butane isomerization business increased to $21 million in Q1-07 from $18 million in Q1-06.

Conference Call Notes:
    For Q1-07, our GNA expenses were up. Insurance costs were up $9 million. Interest expense was $63 million vs. $58 million in Q1-06. Total debt was $5.4 billion Q1-07 vs. 4.7 billion in Q1-06. Average cost of debt was 6.1% with average term of 14 years. In Q1-07 there were $19 million of pipeline integrity with plans to spend $30 million more in 2007.
    Drillers continue to aggressively drill in the basins where we have a presence - with significant increases in production. Barnet Shale production is up 30% year over year. Peance basis is up 18% year over year. Johna-Pinedale production had a 15% year over year increase. The Permian Basin is 2% up year over year in areas of our footprint. Gasoline demand expected to be up 2% year over year - helps EPD's octane enhancement assets.

QnA Session:
    Ives Segal wanted an update on the conditions in the intrastate Texas market. EPD: Gas production was up sharply in the Barnett Shale and across state [in the south Texas Maverick basin, the west Texas shale, the Bossier sale] KMP, ETP and EPD are all looking for export projects to take gas out of Texas. Competition remains stiff - EPD took 20% of market from KMP/ETP over the last 12 months. Central Texas is EPD's strong point, with a strong presence in the San Antonio and Austin markets.
    Ives asked how EPD would characterize the acquisition market. EPD: It is frothy - multiples are off the charts. We look hard at the nice assets - but we have an impressive list of potential organic projects. An acquisition must be a bolt on with a synergy to EPD. We are happy to let the Private Equity guys buy those projects that are not a fit for us. We did notice a slow down of larger properties coming to market.

    Sam Arnold noted that service costs were going down 20% for the E&Ps - have you talked with them? EPD: We are plugged in to that - which is one reason we bought some South Texas assets. South Texas had seen doubling of costs in recent years and that cut drilling back then. Barnet Shale has low development cost - so they have not slowed down.
    Sam asked if Exxon is drilling 200 wells in Peance. EPD: Yes. Exxon is very vocal about their plans in Peance. Encana also continues an agressive drilling program - they have done 'farm outs' because they can not handle all the drilling that they want to do on their acreage. Exxon has done a farm out with XTO - say they will drill 4,800 during life time of program.

    John Edwards asked what is the run rate on depreciation. EPD: About $121 million for quarter - and that number will go up. New assets take a while to ramp up in production, but depreciation starts at day one. John asked about the number of deals that EPD is seeing. EPD: WE see lot of transaction going on, but most of those potential acquisitions do not connect to us. We do not see as many as in prior years and they are of lesser quality. There is a lower pace of assets sales from the majors, but a pick up of smallish private equity deals. Do you expect other MLPs to set up zero IDR subsidiaries [like DEP] to lower their cost of capital? EPD: Other partnerships are not talking about it. I do not expect others to follow us.
    Ross Paine asked about the cap ex budgets. EPD: It is a total 1.7 to 1.8 billion with not much variability per quarter. Ross asked about EPD's debt outstanding with projects not generating EBITDA. EPD: For this year - $550 million in Q1 capital that is just now going into service. with $330 million in Q2, $1.25 billion in Q3 and $350 million in Q4. It will still take some time for services to ramp up. Some of 2005 projects [and 2006] are just now ramping up and they will add to 2007 cash flows.
    Lewis Jamie asked for EPD's maintenance capital run rate. EPD: It is $150 to $160 million this year. And that will not change much next year.
    Barbra Chattman noted that some analyst are projecting that Anadarko may sell properties - and she wanted to know how much of the Independence Hub do they own - and if they sell their share, how would that effect EPD? EPD: Anadarko does not own any of the Hub - they lease. Our partners for that hub are Anadarko, Devin, Dominions, and Hedrow-Spinaker. It is not unusual that producers will sell their interests in a project. And that potential of an Anadarko sale does not concern us. Anadarko is experienced with deep water assets and EPD see no indication that Anadarko would exit deep water. Anadarko has been an aggressive leaser in deep water. Barbara asked that if Anadarko sells - would there be lead time to get different equipment to the hub. EPD: No. There are 10 fields and 15 wells already drilled to service the Hub. There are 8 separate flow lines lying on sea bed floor with 4 still waiting to be connected to hub. So a change from Anadarko ownership should not reduce flow to Independence.
    Ives Seagal asked why intrastate Texas volumes were down. EPD: The Q1 volume comparisons were poor because of mild winter weather in Texas. Also hurting Texas volumes: We had leak on off of a shore line - so we shut that line disown that comes into Freeport. And we had repair expanses effect storage volumes. And there was a problem in the San Juan gathering system.

TPP Reports Q2 Results    PRNewswire 4-26
    TEPPCO Partners, L.P. reported net income for Q1-07 of $138.2 million [$1.29/unit] compared with $62.9 million [$0.63/unit] for Q1-06. Q1-07 included a $59.8 million gain on the sale of TEPPCO's ownership interests in Mont Belvieu Storage Partners and Mont Belvieu Venture, and an $18.7 million gain on the sales of other assets. By comparison, Q1-06 included $19.3 million of gains on the sales of assets and $1.6 million of income from the Pioneer plant that was a discontinued operation. Excluding the gains on the sale of the interests in MBSP and other assets, income from continuing operations increased $17.7 million to $59.7 million [$0.56/unit] for Q1-07, compared with $42.0 million [$0.42/unit] for Q1-06.

SXL Reports Q2 Results    PRNewswire 4-23
    Sunoco Logistics Partners announced net income for Q1-07 of $22.3 million [$0.70/unit] compared with $18.4 million [$0.66/unit] for Q1-06. The 21.1% increase in net income was due mainly to increased revenues at the Partnership's Nederland Terminal, operating results from the acquisitions completed in 2006 in the Western Pipeline System, increased revenues at the Partnership's refined product terminals associated with ethanol blending and product additives and increased other income associated with the August 2006 acquisition of a 55.3 percent equity interest in the Mid-Valley Pipeline Company. These increases were partially offset by lower lease acquisition margins, higher interest expense related to financing the acquisitions completed in 2006 and SXL's organic growth capital program and increased selling, general and administrative expenses related to the acceleration of compensation expense associated with SXL's long term incentive plan in accordance with applicable accounting standards.
    Operating income for the Eastern Pipeline System decreased $0.2 million to $9.7 million for Q1-07 from $9.9 million for Q1-06. This decrease was primarily the result of a $2.5 million increase in total expenses partially offset by a $2.3 million increase in total revenues. Operating income for the Western Pipeline System increased $3.6 million to $9.0 million for Q1-07 from $5.4 million for Q1-06. The increase was primarily the result of higher crude oil pipeline volumes associated with the March 2006 acquisitions of the Millennium and Kilgore crude oil pipelines and the Amdel pipelines along with an increase in other income of $2.1 million related primarily to the acquisition of a 55.3 percent equity interest in the Mid-Valley Pipeline Company in August 2006. The Terminal Facilities business segment had operating income of $12.3 million for Q1-07, an increase of $2.9 million from $9.4 million for Q1-06. Total revenues increased $3.8 million from the prior year's first quarter to $32.9 million due primarily to increased revenues at the Partnership's Nederland Terminal, increased revenues associated with the addition of ethanol blending at the Partnership's refined product terminals starting in May 2006 and additional product additive revenues and increased volumes at the refined product terminals.

NuStar Reports Q2 Results    PRNewswire 4-25
    NuStar Energy L.P. announced net income applicable to limited partners of $26.7 million, or $0.57 per unit, for the first quarter of 2007 compared to $35.3 million, or $0.75 per unit, for the first quarter of 2006. Distributable cash flow available to limited partners from continuing operations for Q1-07 was $47.4 million, or $1.01 per unit, compared to $53.4 million, or $1.14 per unit, for Q1-06. Distribution coverage was 1.11x. As of March 31, 2007, the partnership's debt-to-capitalization ratio was 42.8% compared to 41.9 percent as of December 31, 2006. Fire at Valero Energy's McKee refinery in the Texas Panhandle reduced EBITDA by $6 million - to be reinbused by business interuption insurance.

Conference Call Notes:
    For 2007 we project $285 million in cap ex - 12 from separate from Valero. EBITDA is projected to be higher in 2008 due to organic pipelines and terminal expansion projects.
    Sam Arnold with Credit Suisse asked about the acquisition market. NS: The numbers of potential acquisitions have never more numerous - including acquisition of other MLPs - but the issue is pricing. Acquisition must be accretive and fit into our strategy. People on the sell side look at prices and think it is time to sell. That is a caution sign to buyers.
    Ross Paine with Wachovia asked about the $6.6 million in other income. NS: That came from [1] the sale ($1.5 million) of an idle facility and insurance payments on a dock in Amsterdam damaged in 2005. Ross asked for the debt that was on projects on not yet generating cash flow. NS: About $30 to $35 million. It will grow to $200 million for the balance this year from our cap ex budget number.

    Ross asked about the 'trading business' NS is getting into. NS: We hired top Valero trading people. We are not transforming into a trading company. But having trading in our mix will aid us in filling up our capacity and will help us maximize our properties. Trading will made a meaningful contribution to NS in 2008. We will have a good 2007 and an even better 2008.
    Mark Easterbrook with RBC - have you seen project delays and labor issues? NS: No. We have been fortunate. Things do cost more. Mark ask what the maintenance cap ex would be. NS: About 45 million for the rest of the year, with it being heavy in Q2 and Q3 - light in Q4.
    Mark Rightman with AG Edwards wanted clarification on the earning which they said was 57 cents/unit for quarter - but when they exclude some one time items it would have been down to 43 cents - but factor in the problem at the McKee plant, and it goes back to 54 cents. There were a lot of little problems during Q1. The Citgo was down for three weeks. There were problems at the Texas City plant that tied into their pipelines. There were problems at a plant in Ardmore and Corpus Christi. And then the big item was the McKee fire. NS has a projected 60 cents to 70 cents projection per unit for Q2. NS sees steady improvement, with EBITDA up $30 million this year over 2006.
    Michael Blum with Wachovia asked if the marketing and trading business would add sustainable earnings. NS: Yes - it will be additive to earnings. It is premature to talk about before we have talked to board to get approval for what this team is allowed to do. But we see trading as being synergistic with terminals. Our trading group can use our terminals instead of renters.
    John Tyceland with Citi asked how having a marketing and trading might change the negotiations on rentals of their assets and what targeted percentage will they use? NS: This group should give us another view of what an asset is worth. It will bring another level of analysis that we did not have in house before. Our group will not be favored - they compete with other customers on pricing. The trading group is also free to cut deals with other parties. We have some spare capacity in terminals and pipes. Still, our big expansion projects are backed by long term contracts with customers.

    Paul Sankey with Deutche Bank - prospective on demand - how product specs are shifting? NS: Most people in industry will tell you how strong product demand has been - even with the current high prices. This is one reason that our assets have been valuable. There is a noticeable increase in demand from China - and this has affected prices around the world. Paul asked if there were any 'sub-themes'. NS: In our company renewable fuels - ethanol and bio-diesel, things are happening. Ammonia is doing well due to record corn crop. Corn needs fertilizer - which needs ammonia. Diesel demand growth is higher than even the gasoline demand growth. Add to strong fundamentals the effect of traders - who are in the hunt for storage. Traders are buying physical assets and holding it.
    Leo Larkin with S&P Research asked if ethanol and ammonia will have a significant impact with NS' bottom line. NS: Ammonia volumes are going up - and we serve the whole Corn Belt. Ethanol is small amount of fuel pool - but ethanol growth is high - and mandated by the government. We are not in ethanol production - but there is a lot to do with storage and distribution.

KMP Reports Q2 Results    PRNewswire 4-18
     KMP reported Q1 DCF before certain items of $185.8 million, 1 percent less than the $187.6 million recorded for the same period in 2006. Certain items in the first quarter resulted in a net loss of $1.4 million and included refinancing debt at the Red Cedar Gathering Company, and insurance costs and recoveries associated with hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Q1-07 net income before certain items was $216.3 million versus $246.7 million for the comparable period last year. Net income including certain items was $214.9 million compared to $246.7 million for Q1-06. The Products Pipelines segment produced first quarter earnings before DD&A of $143.2 million, up 14% from $125.9 million during Q1-06. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment delivered first quarter segment earnings before DD&A of $135.7 million, down 5% from an exceptionally strong Q1-06 of $143.5 million, but above its plan for the quarter. The CO2 segment produced first quarter earnings before DD&A of $125.4 million, up 3% from $121.7 million in Q1-06. The Terminals segment reported a 10 percent increase in first quarter earnings before DD&A to $98.7 million compared to almost $90 million for Q1-06. Distributions per unit are expected to grow about 6% in 2007 with growth accelerating in Q4.

ETP Reports Q2 Results    Businesswire 4-10
    Energy Transfer Partners reported an increase of $90.5 million in EBITDA for Q2-07 and an increase in net income of $60.3 million. EBITDA, as adjusted, for Q2-07 was $405.3 million [while the forecast by ETP made in the Q1 CC for Q2-07 EBITDA was $370 million] versus the $314.8 million reported for Q2-06, while net income was $311.1 million, as compared to $250.8 million for Q2-06. For the six months ended February 28, 2007, net income increased $11.5 million to $382.1 million as compared to $370.6 million for the six months ended February 28, 2006. EBITDA, as adjusted, increased $42.8 million to $554.7 million for the six months ended February 28, 2007 as compared to $511.9 million for the six months ended February 28, 2006. Both the three and six month periods benefited by the acquisition of Titan Propane in June 2006 and the acquisition of Transwestern Pipeline in the fall of 2006.
.     Total revenues for Q2-07 was $2.06 billion compared to $2.45 billion in Q2-06. While revenues were down, costs were down even more. Total costs and expenses for Q2-07 were $1.704 billion compared to $2.169 billion in Q2-06. Net Income was $311.114 million in Q2-07 compared to $250.785 million in Q2-06. A 27% increase in the number of units outstanding caused diluted Net Income per Limited Partner Unit to fall to $1.33/unit from $1.36/unit. [From AP: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of $1.42 per partnership unit on revenue of $3.05 billion.]

EROC Reports Q4-06 Results    Businesswire 4-02
     For Q4-06, Eagle Rock Energy Partners reported $115.7 million of revenues as compared to $57.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2005. Total revenues for 2006 were $478.4 million as compared to total revenues of $73.7 million for 2005. Eagle Rock Energy Partners reported a net loss of $11.7 million for Q4-06, compared to net income of $3.2 million for Q4-05. Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2006 included a $4.8 million net loss for unrealized risk management activities as compared to an $8.9 million net gain for the fourth quarter of 2005. Additionally, during the fourth quarter of 2006, the Partnership recorded a pre-tax $6.0 million expense related to the termination of an advisory services agreement, which contributed to the net loss reported. Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2006 was $23.3 million as compared to net income of $2.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2005. Included in net loss for 2006 was $23.5 million net loss of unrealized risk management activities as compared to $8.9 million of net gains for unrealized risk management activities in 2005, in addition to the pre-tax expense attributable to the $6.0 million expense related to the termination of an advisory services agreement.


Distribution Announcements

  On 3-26 ETP announced a distribution of $0.7875/unit [was .76875] payable 4-13 to unitholders of 4-06.
  On 4-13 TPP announced a distribution of $0.685/unit [was .675] payable 5-7 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-16 EPE announced a distribution of $0.365/unit [was .350] payable 5-11 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-16 EPD announced a distribution of $0.475/unit [was .468] payable 5-10 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-16 DEP announced a distribution of $0.40/unit [first dist] payable 5-09 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-17 PAA announced a distribution of $0.8125/unit [was .80] payable 5-14 to unitholders of 5-04.
  On 4-17 OKS announced a distribution of $0.990/unit [was .980] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-18 TCLP announced a distribution of $0.650/unit [was .600] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-18 CPNO announced a distribution of $0.420/unit [was .800] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-01.
  On 4-18 KMP announced a distribution of $0.830/unit [was .830] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-19 MWE announced a distribution of $0.510/unit [was .500] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-09.
  On 4-20 TLP announced a distribution of $0.470/unit [was .430] payable 5-08 to unitholders of 4-30.
  On 4-23 XTEX announced a distribution of $0.560/unit [was .560] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-02.
  On 4-23 XTXI announced a distribution of $0.220/unit [was .220] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-02.
  On 4-23 MMLP announced a distribution of $0.640/unit [was .620] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-01.
  On 4-23 GELP announced a distribution of $0.220/unit [was .210] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-23 SXL announced a distribution of $0.825/unit [was .8125] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-23 TGP announced a distribution of $0.4625/unit [was .4625] payable 5-14 to unitholders of 5-01.
  On 4-25 DPM announced a distribution of $0.465/unit [was .430] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-25 HLND announced a distribution of $0.7125/unit [was .7125] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-04.
  On 4-25 HPGP announced a distribution of $0.2075/unit [was .2075] payable 5-18 to unitholders of 5-04.
  On 4-25 NS announced a distribution of $0.9150/unit [was .9150] payable 5-14 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-25 NSH announced a distribution of $0.320/unit [was .320] payable 5-16 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-26 EEP announced a distribution of $0.925/unit [was .925] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-26 MMP announced a distribution of $0.61625/unit [was .6025] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-26 MGG announced a distribution of $0.2615/unit [was .2460] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-26 APL announced a distribution of $0.860/unit [was .860] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-26 AHD announced a distribution of $0.250/unit [was .250] payable 5-18 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-26 BWP announced a distribution of $0.430/unit [was .415] payable 5-14 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-26 BPL announced a distribution of $0.800/unit [was .7875] payable 5-31 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-26 BGH announced a distribution of $0.240/unit [was .225] payable 5-31 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-26 WPZ announced a distribution of $0.500/unit [was .470] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-07.
  On 4-27 RGNC announced a distribution of $0.38/unit [was .370] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-08.
  On 4-27 HEP announced a distribution of $0.690/unit [was .675] payable 5-15 to unitholders of 5-07.


April Rating Changes

    On 4-03 Wachovia Downgraded MWE from Outperform to Market Perform, Sanders Morris Harris Downgraded MWE to hold and PAA to hold, and Lehman Brothers Downgraded XTEX from Overweight to Equal-weight. On 4-09 RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded [1] HLND from Outperform to Sector Perform and [2] GEL from Outperform to Sector Perform. Also on 4-09 UBS [1] Initiated coverage of NSH at Neutral and [2] Downgraded NS from Buy to Neutral. Also on 4-09, Credit Suisse Downgraded WPZ from Neutral to Underperform. On 4-11 AG Edwards Downgraded MMP from Buy to Hold, Downgraded MGG from Buy to Hold and Downgraded TPP from Buy to Hold. On 4-20 Wachovia Downgraded WPZ from Outperform to Market Perform. On 4-27 Citigroup Downgraded APL from Buy to Hold.


March Rating Changes

    On 4-02 AG Edwards Downgraded NSH from Buy to Hold. On 5-03 Lehman Brothers Downgraded MMP from Overweight to Equal-weight.

    On 3-02 Sanders Morris Harris Downgraded XTEX from Buy to Hold and RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded XTXI from Outperform to Sector Perform. On 3-12 UBS Initiated coverage of BWP at Neutral. On 3-14 Goldman Sachs Downgraded HEP from Buy to Neutral. On 3-20 RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded MMLP from Outperform to Sector Perform.




MLP E&P Stocks

    The CAGR estimates were influenced by those attained from Yahoo, but are primarily based on those from AG Edwards. The DCF estimates for ATN, BBEP, EVEP and LINE are from AG Edwards. Those for CEP and LGCY are based on their current distributions, where I used dcf/.9 = distribution [which is approx the sector average] to arrive at a DCF. And the EVEP 2008 EPS estimate was also absent at Yahoo - so I used the current trend to estimate that.
    This whole sector is brand new, with ONLY LINE having paid a distribution in 2006. And the abscence of a track record causes the CAGR estimates to be varied and undependable. And normally I would not even cover MLPs withoutfirst having DCFs. But the unit price gains in this sector have been too high to ignore. The P/E ratios still look very attractive relative to standard MLPs. And many of the CAGR estimates [estimate that are so high that I am not using them for my metrics] for most E&P's are significantly higher than most regular MLPs.
    At the moment, I still have a problem believing the CAGRs would be higher for sustainable periods. E&P's can purchase assets at lower enterprise values to EBITDA ratios and thus make more accretive acquisitions compared to midstream MLPs, where the purchase of these acquistions by traditional MLPs now come with higher price tags and lower accretion. I would suspect that over time, the EBITDA multiples for E&P assets will grow too.
    Because of the hyper-accretiveness of new acquisitions, those E&P MLPs with the newest and the highest percentage of acquisitions will be the ones that will probably have the highest unit price appreciation. Thus the Forecaster Model - which uses valuation and CAGR differences to mathamatically find MLPs that are undervalued - would logically be less predictive in this sub-sector.


Monthly E&P News

Linn Energy Announces 2006 Results    Prime Newswire 3-29
    For 2006 LINE's [1] proved reserves increased 135% to 454.1 Bcfe from 193.2 Bcfe [2] Total production increased 124% to 10.8 Bcfe from 4.8 Bcfe and [3] Adjusted EBITDA increased 246% to $75.1 million from $21.7 million.

    On 4-20 Legacy Reserves LP announced a cash distribution attributable to the first quarter of 2007 of $0.41 per unit [no change], payable on May 14, 2007 to unitholders of record at the close of business on April 30, 2007.

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