|
|
MessageBoard Navigator Prior Updates Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Intro MLP & Energy News Oil Online Petro News RigZone Yahoo News Blogs & Groups Google Group MLP Blog Util/MLP Blog MLP Intros Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Factoids Sep Aug July Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan BDC Updates Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan |
October DCFs have been uploaded for brokerages L and U - and this site's consensus DCFs were just updated to reflect these new stats. DCF's from brokerage C will be coming in as earnings season progresses. And updates from now deceased brokerage E will be replaced by brokerage W around mid-month in November. In sum - the site's DCF estimates will be in flux over the next two weeks - and given the volatility in the extimates I just finished inputting for brokerages L and U, one should expect some significant changes. CAGR estimates were also updated to reflect recent distribution growth rate changes and DCF growth rate changes. Brokerage L had dropped some MLPs for its quarterly update. I kept the old numbers posted for the 2007 estimates but dropped the 2008 estimates for those dropped MLPs. I thought it was better to have an old estimate than none at all - and using this method you could tell which estimates are stale from the brokerage. The spreadsheet below uses month ending data. The 'monthly price change' column is for unit price changes, while the 'year to date' stats is for total return. This explains the jumps in year to date gains in the distribution heavy months of February, May, August and November without similar gains in those month's unit prices. CEF numbers are for MLP and MLP-hybrid Closed-End Funds. The 'Ten Year Yield' numbers are for the US Treasury. Tracking the spread of the average MLP's yield to the Treasury has been a useful tool for timing of MLP purchases - buy MLPs when the spread is high. The CEF spread is used in academia to measure investor sentiment. Buy MLPs when the price is at the largest discount to NAV.
Enterprise Completes Final Phase of Mid-America Pipeline Expansion BusinessWire 10-02 EPD announced it has placed into service the remaining part of its 50,000 barrels per day (BPD) expansion of the Rocky Mountain portion of the partnership's Mid-America Pipeline (MAPL) system. The project involved the installation of new pumps and modification of existing equipment at 20 pump stations along the approximately 2,500-mile system, increasing capacity by 20,000 BPD. The initial 30,000 BPD of additional capacity, which was created by looping more than 160 miles of pipelines, went into service in April of 2007. Combined, the two initiatives increase capacity on MAPL's Rocky Mountain system from 225,000 BPD to 275,000 BPD. EPD also completed an expansion of its MAPL system between Conway, Kansas and Skellytown, Texas during the second quarter of this year. EPD also announced that production through EPD's Independence Hub natural gas platform in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico has reached 440 million cubic feet per day from nine wells. As the initial 15 wells are brought on line, producers expect that production at the Independence Hub will reach its capacity of 1 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2007. MWE Acquires Assets from Canaan / Expands Javelina Plant BusinessWire 10-02 MarkWest Energy Partners nnounced that on September 27, 2007, it acquired from Canaan Resources, LLC a portion of Canaan's gathering assets located in Pittsburg County in Southeast Oklahoma. In conjunction with the acquisition agreement, MarkWest will invest up to $30 million to support the development of Canaan's Woodford Shale and Hartshorne coal bed methane initiatives with an efficient and highly reliable gathering system. Canaan currently produces approximately 13 million cubic feet of gas per day from the Hartshorne field and has numerous identified projects that are expected to significantly impact the producing rate and reserve base of the Hartshorne and other reservoirs. The gathering assets are located adjacent to, and will become fully integrated with, MarkWest's existing Woodford Shale gathering system. On 10-04 MarkWest announced it will invest approximately $100 million to expand its Javelina plant, located in Corpus Christi, Texas. MarkWest will begin construction of a steam methane reformer ("SMR") facility at its Javelina plant in the fourth quarter of 2007 and expects to commence delivering high-purity hydrogen in early 2010. Once operational, the SMR facility, combined with the existing facilities at the Javelina plant, will produce in excess of 50 million cubic feet per day of high-purity hydrogen. The expansion is anchored by long-term, fee-based supply agreements. On 10-18 MWE announced that the "go-shop" process conducted on the Company's behalf by Merrill Lynch has ended. During the "go-shop" process, Merrill Lynch held a variety of discussions with more than a dozen potential transaction partners and no proposal was received that constitutes, or could reasonably be expected to lead to, a proposal superior to that announced September 5, 2007, among the Company, MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. and MWEP, L.L.C. ETP Expands Propane Business BusinessWire 10-05 Energy Transfer Partners announced that their Heritage/Titan Propane Division has recently acquired the propane assets of three companies located in states of North Carolina, Washington, and Vermont. Combined, these operations serve over 23,000 customers delivering more than 14 million gallons of propane annually. Heritage/Titan Propane Division markets over 670 million gallons of Retail Propane to over 1.1 million customers through more than 430 retail distribution plants in 40 states throughout the U.S. ETP Gives Guidance BusinessWire 10-10 ETP announced that the Partnership has increased its previously disclosed fiscal 2007 EBITDA guidance from $980 million to $1.0 billion for the fiscal year-ended August 31, 2007. In addition, the Partnership announced initial EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2008 of $1.2 billion and guidance for fiscal 2009 of $1.4 - $1.5 billion. ETP also updated its capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2007 and outlook for fiscal 2008 and 2009. Growth capital expenditures for fiscal 2007 are now expected to total $1.0 billion, a $200 million reduction from previous guidance. In fiscal 2008 and 2009, in conjunction with the construction and completion of a number of Partnership expansion projects, growth capital expenditures are projected to total approximately $2.3 billion, with 80% of the expenditures expected in fiscal 2008. "We are beginning a very exciting period for ETP. Over the next 24 months, our current portfolio of capital expansion projects will be completed and EBITDA is projected to increase by 50%," said Brian Jennings, Energy Transfer Partner's Chief Financial Officer. "Our growth through 2009 is broad-based, led by significant expansions of our intrastate and interstate systems. Looking beyond 2009, we see an expanding portfolio of new projects and expansion opportunities," added Mr. Jennings, "as we work to build critical energy infrastructure." NGLS Files Secondary Offering Reuters 10-01 Targa Resources Partners filed with regulators on Monday to offer 12.5 million common units representing limited partner interests. NGLS said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it expects to receive about $344.4 million in net proceeds from the offering. It will use the funds for acquisition purposes, the filing said. EEP Sells Kansas Pipeline System Prime NewsWire 10-16 Enbridge Energy Partners announced that it has agreed to sell its Kansas Pipeline System for $133 million in cash. The system includes 1120 miles of pipeline and three compressor stations. The sale to Quest Midstream Partners, L.P., a subsidiary of Quest Resource Corporation, is expected to close in November 2007. EEP will use proceeds of the sale to partially finance its ongoing $5 billion capital expansion program. SXL Reports EPU of $0.97 vs. $0.59 in Q3-06 Prime NewsWire 10-22 Sunoco Logistics Partners announced net income for Q3-07 of $37.5 million [$0.97/unit] compared with $17.7 million [$0.59/unit] for Q3-06. Operating income for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007 increased by $21.3 million or 86 percent from the prior year third quarter primarily due to strong demand across our operating segments as well as solid performance in our lease acquisition business. Net income increased $19.8 million on the strength of higher operating income, partially offset by increased interest expense of $1.5 million attributable to the Partnership's organic growth program, 2006 acquisitions and the 2007 acquisition of a 50 percent interest in a refined products terminal in Syracuse, New York. BWP Reports Net Income of $0.30 vs. $0.19 in Q3-06 Business Wire 10-29 Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP announced Q3-07 net income of $40.0 million for the quarter and $155.7 million for year to date, a 30.7% and 17.7% increase from $30.6 million and $132.3 million in the comparable 2006 periods. Operating revenues were $134.7 million for Q3-07 and $473.4 million year to date, a 1.3% and 8.5% increase from $133.0 million in Q3-06 and $436.2 million for 2006 year to date periods. EBITDA was $69.6 million for Q3-07 and $246.6 million year to date, an 8.6% and 5.9% increase from $64.1 million and $232.9 million in the comparable 2006 periods. From the Conference Call: CAGR of distributions has been 15% since IPO and at the same time there are 15% more units issued since IPO. for the major projects under construction: [1] The East Texas to Mississippi line is half way finished with an in service date late 2007. [2] The SouthEast Expansion in service date is late Q1-08 [terminated contract with original contractor of this line] [3] Gulf Crossing Pipeline [budget of $1.1 billion] will traverse southern Oklahoma, northern Texas and northern Louisiana. It will comprise approximately 355 miles of 42-inch diameter pipeline, with a peak delivery capacity of at least 1.65 Bcf/d. Projected to be in service Q4-08. [4] Fayetteville and Greenville lateral - Fayetteville [first 60 miles] in service Q3-08 and the rest in Q1-09. [5] Storage at Midland Phase Two in western Kentucky to go in service this week. [6] Midland Phase Three has a Q4-08 in service expectation. QnA: Yves Segal with Wachovia wanted to review of BWP's balance sheet. BWP: Total debt is $1.8 billion - average rate is 5.6% and all is at a fixed rate long term. We have $600 million in cash. Segal: How much do you have in uncommitted volumes in new projects? BWP: Production is strong in all those footprints. In the Fayetteville line there is 0.8 BCF of capacity and Southwestern took 0.5 for ten years - and there are other producers that with which we are in discussions. At the Barnett Shale, the production continues to exceed expectations - we are talking to a lot of people there. Segal: Are you looking for another partner to own Gulf Crossing line? [There were original expectation that EPD would buy half - but that is not now expected] BWP: Current there are no discussions and we are now happy to own 100% of that line. Another analyst asked if BWP is looking at other companies to partner on that line. BWP: We are open to doing deals. Sam Arnold with Credit Suisse asked about the SouthEast lateral switch in contractor. BWP The other contractor wanted to do business with us - and switching [and paying the termination fee] made economic sense. Arnold: Transco is currently having its open season on its line from Butler to Gulf Stream - does that help or hurt you? BWP: We project that any capacity coming out of station 85 by Transco will helps us. [Transco's Station 85 pool is located in Butler County, Alabama] John Edwards with Morgan Keegan want BWP's timing on capital spending - which in Q3 was below their expectations. BWP: There has been $650 million for first 9 months of 2007. And one third of the $3.7 billion in upcoming cap ex is projected for Q4-07. Edwards: Is the Fayetteville line expected to fill up? BWP: Yes. There is lots of interest in our capacity. We can add compression Fayetteville to boost capacity - Southwestern had 500 million with option for the other three hundred million. Lots of opportunity out there. Barret Blackey with RBC wanted BWP's projection for maintenance cap ex. BWP: For the legacy lines it is in the mid $50s [millions]. Once all projects are up, the new lines will not add much - so low $60s but lumpy going forward. Ross Paine with Wachovia wanted to know the potential impact of REX [Rockies Express] line [Kinder Morgan's REX-West will consist of 713 mi of 42-in. pipeline from Weld County, Colorado, to Audrain County, Missouri, and has a targeted in-service date of December 2007.] BWP: It is tough to predict. Canadian gas imports have been reduced and the REX line may replace that gas. At the moment there is no storage on REX. So there is an opportunity for us to store gas at Texas Gas that comes from REX. Rex could force gas to the southeast and that would help us. Paine asked for the utilization of the Texas gas lines. BWP That capacity is virtually sold out. There are pockets on the pipe line where we have capacity. But in the winter it is full. And the summer season the line is used for running up the storage capacity. Paine: What is the life of contract on Texas Gas? BWP: Roughly three years. Yves Segal asked if there were any meaningful contract expirations or competitor's expirations? BWP: Not that we are aware of. We follow contract roll-overs. Thinking about another major pipe line moving moving further west than existing Fayetteville line? BWP: We are always thinking about expansion and looking to enhance our existing infrastructure. Shaun Wells with RBC asked if BWP had any candidate locations to replace the abandoned Magnolia storage. BWP: We are looking for another location. Pending IPO Update Oil and Gas Investor, 9-01 Many IPO plans for upstream MLPs have been filed with the SEC and not yet priced, including those for: [1] Exco Resources Inc., raising some $1.5 billion and involving mature producing properties in Appalachia, East Texas/North Louisiana, Midcontinent and the Permian Basin. [2] Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners LP, raising some $250 million for Pioneer Natural Resources and involving 25 million proved barrels equivalent in the Permian Basin. [3] Quest Energy Partners LP, raising some $210 million for Quest Resource Corp. and involving some 1,700 gross coalbed-methane wells in Kansas and Oklahoma in the Cherokee Basin. [4] Abraxas Energy Partners LP, created by Abraxas Petroleum Corp. for $100 million from private investors. It holds Permian and South Texas properties. [5] Venoco Inc., holding some onshore and offshore California and onshore Texas assets. [6] Encore Energy Partners LP, raising some $250 million for Encore Acquisition Co. and holding 22 million proved barrels equivalent in the Elk (Wyoming and Montana) and Permian basins. [7] Vinland Energy Eastern LLC by Vanguard Natural Resources LLC, raising roughly $150 million and holding southern Appalachian properties with 66 billion proved cubic feet equivalent. Announcing plans to form an upstream MLP but not filing with the SEC yet are: [1] Plains Exploration & Production Co. of some 75% of its assets post its Pogo Producing Co. deal. [2] XTO Energy Inc. of more than $500 million of properties, including some from Dominion Resources. [3] Petrohawk Energy Corp. of its HK Energy Partners LP, raising some $150- to $225 million and holding long-life Permian and Arkoma properties. [4] Pioneer Natural Resources of its Raton Basin coalbed-methane assets in the southern Rockies. Some producers are also rolling their midstream assets into MLPs. [1] Devon Energy Corp. plans an MLP of a minority interest in its U.S. onshore marketing and midstream business. [2] Williams Cos. Inc. plans one to own an interest in its 3,900-mile, bi-directional Northwest Pipeline. Other midstream MLPs under way are: Tetra Technologies Inc.'s roll-out of most of the assets of subsidiary Compressco Inc. OGE Enogex Partners LP, which will control OGE Energy Corp.'s gas-pipeline subsidiary, Enogex Inc. Investment funds have been formed to target the MLP space. Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC has created Tortoise Gas and Oil Corp. with $100 million to invest primarily for upstream MLPs. Meanwhile, an IPO of MLP Strategy Income Fund Inc. is being offered by a Merrill Lynch & Co. subsidiary. Despite the dominance of MLP offerings, several traditional E&P-company IPOs have been launched this year or are under way. Trading are Midland-based Concho Resources Inc., Pennsylvania-based Rex Energy Corp., Oklahoma-based Continental Resources Inc. and Wyoming-based Pinnacle Gas Resources Inc. Under way are IPOs for Fort Worth-based Approach Resources Inc. and Oklahoma City-based SandRidge Energy Inc. Oilfield-service IPOs that have been completed this year are those of Houston-based Vantage Energy Services Inc. and Lafayette-based Superior Offshore International Inc. Under way is an IPO for Oklahoma-based Stallion Oilfield Services Inc. On 10-02 Lehman Brothers Initiated coverage of SGLP at Equal-weight. On 10-18 JP Morgan Initiated coverage of EROC and MWE at Overweight, and Initiated coverage of KGS, KMP, PAA, RGNC and TPP at Neutral. On 10-23 Deutsche Securities Upgraded PAA from Hold to Buy. On 10-29 RBC Capital Markets Initiated coverage of DEP and SGLP at Sector Perform.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||