|
|
Market Stats Prior Updates Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Intro |
At the end of Q1-07, the lower analyst rated stocks had higher unit price appreciation than the better rated stocks and the MLPs with lower CAGRs had equal unit price appreciation as those with higher CAGRs. That is not normal. And my main metric - Price at a Logical P/DCF Ratio - was not predictive. I concluded [and it was a self serving conclusion] that the results from Q1 indicated that there was newbie money coming into the sector. Why else would the predictive metrics fail? It is now the end of Q2-07. Price at a Logical P/DCF Ratio is predictive again. MLPs that distribute a smaller percentage of DCFs noticably outperformed. MLPs with the higher distribution increases noticably outperfromed. The higher rated MLPs outperformed. The MLPs with the higher analyst given CAGRs slightly outperformed. In sum: things are back to normal. It could take me a week to adjust all of the javascript so that Q2 tests of the numbers are done on all variables. I believe the coding up to the point where I do Four Way Splits is currently correct, and the code past that point is suspect. And one should also be aware that any group that contains GEL should naturally outperform any group that does not include GEL. GEL has a totaly return of over 80%. There are no other MLPs with over a 50% return, and only two [CPNO and NGLS] have returns over 40%. And any group which contains XTEX will probably underperform. |