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Shopping Center & Other Retail Update - 3-30-07

Mall Update for 3-30-07


Monthly Rating Changes

    On 1-12 Deutsche Securities Upgraded KIM from Hold to Buy. On 1-08 Friedman Billings Upgraded MAC from Market Perform to Outperform.

    On 2-02 Citigroup Initiated coverage of CDR at Hold. On 2-07 Credit Suisse Initiated coverage of O at Neutral. On 2-08 AG Edwards Downgraded SPG from Buy to Hold and AG Edwards Downgraded GGP from Buy to Hold.

    On 2-07, analyst Steve Sakwa of Merrill Lynch, who rates the stock a "Buy," boosted GGP's price target by $7 to $70. Swank wrote that he believes that GGP's leasing is also on solid ground as it has already released/renewed over 50 percent of its 2007 expiring leases and is now working on late 2007 as well as 2008 and 2009 expirations. Sakwa pointed out that since November 2004, when the company completed its acquisition of Rouse, shares have underperformed other upscale mall companies [Taubman and Simon] due to weaker earnings growth driven by lower profits in its land business and rising short-term interest rates. But he believes earnings growth should re-accelerate in 2007 as interest rates no longer act as a headwind. Sakwa estimates the company's core funds from operations, which exclude all income from its land development business, will rise 9.8% this year, compared with a 1.7% drop in 2006.

    On 2-14, Macerich was downgraded to neutral from buy at Banc of America, due primarily to concerns over valuation. MAC reported FFO rose above year-earlier levels but missed expectations. The stock has gained 41% over the past 6 months, and is above Analyst Ross Nussbaum's price target of $97, which he raised from $93. Nussbaum believes the stock "now fully reflects an expected ramp-up in FFO in 2008 to 2010," and he doesn't see a near-term positive catalyst for the stock. He said in a research note that the stock "may sit in a trading range over the next 12 months until visibility on 2008 improves." Also on 2-14, Deutsche Securities Downgraded TCO and SPG from Buy to Hold and UBS Upgraded GGP from Reduce to Neutral.


News Update

New Plan Excel Realty Trust to be Acquired by Centro Properties Group    PRNewswire 2-27
    New Plan Excel Realty Trust and Centro Properties Group jointly announced that New Plan has entered into a definitive agreement with affiliates of Melbourne, Australia-based Centro pursuant to which Centro will acquire New Plan for $33.15 per share of common stock in cash in a transaction valued at approximately $6.2 billion, including assumption of debt and preferred stock. The per share offer price represents a 12.9% premium to New Plan's closing share price on February 27, 2007 and a 12.3% premium to the average closing price over the past 30 days.

Simon Property Group Provides 2007 FFO and Earnings Guidance   PRNewswire 1-12
    SPG estimates that diluted FFO will be within a range of $5.70 to $5.80 per share for the year ending December 31, 2007, and diluted net income per share will be within a range of $1.82 to $1.92. For these estimates, SPG is projecting releasing spread 15 to 25% for its regional malls 20 to 30% for its premium outlet centers, and 5 to 15% for its community lifestyle centers. Also for these estimates, SPG is projecting comparable property NOI growth 3.0 to 4.0% for its regional malls, 4.0 to 5.0% for its premium outlet centers, and 2.0 to 3.0% for its community lifestyle centers. The 2007 guidance assumes timely completion of the Company's previously announced development activities; includes no future acquisition or disposition activities other than the impact in 2007 from 2006 activity; and contemplates stable retail and capital market environments. The 2007 guidance also assumes an interest rate environment that is consistent with the current forward yield curves for one month LIBOR and the 10 Year U.S. Treasury note.

SPG Outbids Brookfield to Buy MLS   
    On Feb 17th, Mills and Brookfield Asset Management [BAM] announced that MLS has entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which Brookfield will acquire MLS for cash at a price of $21 per share, representing a total transaction value of approximately $1.35 billion for all of the outstanding common stock of The Mills and common units of The Mills Limited Partnership, and approximately $7.5 billion including assumed debt and preferred stock.
    But Brookfield was outbid and Mills is to be acquired by Simon Property Group and Farallon Capital Management for $1.64 billion. The acquisition of Mills will be completed through a cash-tender offer of $25.25 a share for Mills' outstanding common stock. Including the assumption of debt and preferred stock, the deal is valued at $7.9 billion.

Dividend Increases   
    On 3-14 Realty Income declared an increase in the Company's common stock monthly dividend to $0.127125 per share from $0.1265 per share.

    On 2-16 Developers Diversified Realty declared its first quarter 2007 common share dividend of $0.66 per share, which is payable April 9, 2007 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 23, 2007.

    On 12-04 Acadia announced that its Board of Trustees has approved a $0.06 increase in its dividend on an annualized basis from $0.74 to $0.80.

    On 12-07 Taubman Centers [TCO] declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.375 per share of common stock, an increase of 23.0 percent. This represents Taubman Centers' eleventh consecutive annual common dividend increase. The common dividend, which equates to an annual rate of $1.50 per share compared with a previous annual rate of $1.22 per share, is payable January 19, 2007 to shareholders of record on December 29, 2006.


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