|
Factoids Yahoo Banks Excite Banks Banking News Bankstocks.com 2007 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2006 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun6 May April Mar Feb Jan 2005 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2004 Updates Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July Jun May Aprl Mar Feb Jan 2003 Updates Dec Nov Oct |
Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 21% to 80%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. Bottom Fishers Nibble at Banks Gregory Zuckerman, WSJ 2-10 Is it time to do some bargain hunting among battered bank and brokerage stocks? The prospects are still daunting, but some intrepid investors are placing selected bets. Dow Jones indexes of U.S. banks and financial-services stocks are down about 30% over the past year due to the housing market's downturn. It could be years before home prices start climbing again. Earnings look bleak. Financial companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are expected to see their profits drop more than 18% in the first quarter compared with a year ago. Analysts have been cutting their earnings estimates, suggesting that things are getting worse. One the other hand, "Financials look very attractively valued," says Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. strategist at Citigroup, who encourages investors to focus on banks, investment banks and brokerage firms. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 trade at 15 times earnings of the last 12 months -- a low multiple considering how poor earnings were last year. That compares with a price/earnings multiple of 18 for the S&P 500. Another positive for financial shares: The Federal Reserve has been slashing short-term interest rates, and could keep lowering them. Lower rates boost bank profits by reducing the cost of their short-term borrowing, even as the long-term rates at which they lend money stay high. Looking for a low-risk bank? Two regional banks that earn good grades for being careful lenders: Bank of Hawaii and Westamerica Bancorporation in California. Some investors point to Wachovia, which is down 40% over the past year and sports a dividend yield above 7%. It trades at less than nine times its expected earnings over the next 12 months. Raymond James Financial, down 19% over the past year, is another favorite of some analysts. Executives of the firm, one of the last independent brokers, have been buying shares lately. Ratings & Dividend Changes On 2-04 Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded CNB from Hold to Sell. On 2-06 Citigroup Downgraded RF from Hold to Sell. On 2-21 B. Riley & Co Initiated PRSP at Buy. On 2-22 B. Riley & Co Initiated GBCI at Neutral. On 2-01 CBSH declared an increased dividend of $0.25/share [a 5% increase over the prior dividend of $0.238/share] payable on March 28, 2008 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2008. On 2-19 HBHC declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable March 17, 2008, to shareholders of record as of March 5, 2008. On 2-26 FNB declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable on March 15, 2008, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 3, 2008. On 2-26 UCBH declared an increased dividend of $0.04/share payable on April 11, 2008, to common stockholders of record as of March 31, 2008. On 2-27 WTNY declared an increased dividend of $0.31/share payable on April 1, 2008 to shareholders of record as of March 14, 2008. On 1-16 Citi Initiated coverage of RF at hold. On 1-04 BMO Capital Markets Downgraded BOKF from Outperform to Market Perform. On 1-04 Friedman Billings Downgraded FHN from Market Perform to Underperform. On 1-25 Bear Stearns Downgraded CYN from Outperform to Peer Perform. On 1-29 Sterne Agee Downgraded WABC from Buy to Hold. On 1-16 CNB declared an increased dividend of $0.19/share [compared to $0.1875 paid in 2007] to be paid on February 8, 2008 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 25, 2008. On 1-17 RF declared a dividend of $0.38/share payable April 1, 2008, to stockholders of record as of March 18, 2008. On 1-23 UB declared a $0.52/share to be paid on 4-04-08 to shareholders of record as of 3-07-08. On 1-25 EWBC declared a dividend of $0.10/share payable on or about 2-20-08 to shareholders of record on 2-06-08. On 1-25 WABC declared a dividend of $0.34/share payable on 2-15 to shareholders of record as of 2-04. On 1-25 ZION declared a dividend of $0.43/share payable on 2-20 to shareholders of record as of 2-06. On 1-25 CFR declared a dividend of $0.40/share payable on March 14 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 29. On 1-29 FNB declared a lowered dividend of $0.21/share payable on Feb. 22 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 11. On 1-30 BOKF declared a dividend of $0.20/share, payable on or about Feb. 29, 2008, to shareholders of record on Feb. 14. On 2-01 CBSH declared a dividend of $0.25/share [or $0.238/share as adjusted for the 5% stock dividend paid on 12-13-07] payable on March 28, 2008 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2008. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |