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Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 21% to 80%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. FCBP to Reincorporate in Delaware and Be Renamed PacWest PRNewswire 3-10 First Community Bancorp will seek shareholder approval to reincorporate in Delaware. First Community Bancorp is currently incorporated in California. Matt Wagner, CEO of First Community Bancorp, stated, "Despite the fact we generate significant amounts of cash, California law could impair First Community's ability to pay dividends. Changing our state of incorporation to Delaware would enhance our dividend paying flexibility for the benefit of our shareholders and permit the Company to benefit from other numerous advantages of being a Delaware corporation." Delaware law permits companies domiciled in Delaware to pay a dividend from capital surplus regardless of a company's retained earnings level. This is important as the current level of our market capitalization compared to book value indicates that we may have to record a noncash charge to earnings for goodwill impairment during the first quarter of 2008. Such noncash charge could reduce or eliminate retained earnings. While we continue to generate significant earnings and cash, California law limits our ability to pay dividends to the amount of retained earnings. UCBH Shares Fall on Provision Revision AP 3-05 Shares of UCBH Holdings [United Commercial Bank] tumbled as analysts cut 2008 earnings estimates based on the bank's revision of loan-loss provisions taken during the fourth quarter. UCBH said in a regulatory filing it revised its fourth-quarter loan-loss provisions higher to account for increasing net charge-offs -- loans written off as not being repaid -- and nonperforming assets. The revised provision reduced the company's earnings by 4 cents per share to 15 cents per share for the quarter and 97 cents per share for the full year. Net charge-offs increased to $9.3 million for 2007, from $7.6 million. Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP analyst Aaron James Deer on Wednesday cut his 2008 earnings estimate for UCBH to $1 per share from $1.05 per share because of the "less encouraging credit metrics at year-end." "While we remain strong supporters of UCBH's long-term strategy and believe the company will again see above-average growth and profitability, at this point, the difficult credit environment and slowing economy are likely to weigh on the company's earnings and its stock performance," Deer wrote in a research note. Deer cut his price target to $11 from $13. D.A. Davidson analyst Chris Stulpin reduced UCBH 2008 earnings estimate by 18 cents per share to 98 cents per share because of increased credit cost assumptions. Stulpin set a new price target of $16, down from $17, but maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock. Ratings & Dividend Changes On 3-05 Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded RF from Sell to Hold. On 3-17 UMPQ declared a dividend of $0.19/share payable on April 15, 2008 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2008. On 2-04 Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded CNB from Hold to Sell. On 2-06 Citigroup Downgraded RF from Hold to Sell. On 2-21 B. Riley & Co Initiated PRSP at Buy. On 2-22 B. Riley & Co Initiated GBCI at Neutral. On 2-01 CBSH declared an increased dividend of $0.25/share [a 5% increase over the prior dividend of $0.238/share] payable on March 28, 2008 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2008. On 2-19 HBHC declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable March 17, 2008, to shareholders of record as of March 5, 2008. On 2-26 FNB declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable on March 15, 2008, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 3, 2008. On 2-26 UCBH declared an increased dividend of $0.04/share payable on April 11, 2008, to common stockholders of record as of March 31, 2008. On 2-27 WTNY declared an increased dividend of $0.31/share payable on April 1, 2008 to shareholders of record as of March 14, 2008. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |