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Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 21% to 80%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. BOH Reports $1.18 vs. $0.94 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-21 Bank of Hawaii Corporation reported Q1-08 net income of $57.2 million [$1.18/share] compared with $47.3 million [$0.94/share] in Q1-07. Q1-08 included proceeds of $13.7 million related to BOH's interest in Visa shares, a reversal $5.6 million of legal expenses related to Visa, and $11.6 million related to a lessee’s early buy-out of an aircraft lease. ROA was 2.16% compared with 1.83% during Q1-07. ROE was 29.88% compared with 27.00% during Q1-07. Book Value was $15.98 compared with $15.44 at the end of Q4-07 and $14.32 at the endof Q1-07. FTE Net interest income was $102.4 million compared with $98.4 million in Q1-07. The net interest margin was 4.17% compared ti 4.07% in Q1-07. Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities were $7.537 billion costing $42.5 million at an average yield of 2.26% compared with 2.75% in Q1-07. Total Earning Assets were $9.856 billion earnings $144.9 million at an average yield of 5.89% compared with 6.16% in Q1-07. Noninterest income was $86.1 million compared to $61.0 million in Q1-07. Q1-08 results included gains of $13.7 million related Visa and $11.6 million for the disposition of an aircraft lease. Results for Q1-07 included a gain of $2.3 million on the disposal of leased equipment. Total non-performing assets were $6.0 million [0.09% of total loans and foreclosed real estate], up slightly from $5.8 million [0.09%] at the end of Q1-07. Net charge-offs were $5.4 million [0.33% annualized of total average loans and leases] compared with $2.6 million [0.16%] in Q1-07. BOKF Reports $0.92 vs. $0.78 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-15 BOK Financial Corporation reported Net income of $62.3 million [$0.92/share] compared with $52.8 million [$0.78/share] for Q1-07. ROA was 1.22% compared with 1.20% in Q1-07. ROE was 12.62% compared with 12.29% in Q1-07. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $29.57 compared with $26.57 at the end of Q1-07. Net interest revenue totaled $147.0 million, up $18.2 million or 14% over Q1-07. Average earning assets increased $2.1 billion or 13%. Net interest margin was 3.31%, down 1 basis point from Q1-07. Yields on average earning assets decreased 85 basis points to 6.17% and the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased 103 basis points to 3.11% compared with Q1-07. Total fees and commissions were $113.987 million compared with $91.587 million in Q1-07. The largest single line adding to that growth was Brokerage and trading revenue was $23.913 million compared with $13.282 million in Q1-07. Other major lines in fees were Deposit service charges and fees of $27.686 million; Transaction card revenue of $23.558 million; and Trust fees and commissions of $20.796 million. Non-performing assets totaled $126 million [1.02% of outstanding loans] at March 31, 2008, up from $104 million [0.87% of outstanding loans] at December 31, 2007 and $50 million [0.45%] at March 31, 2007. Net loans charged off and provision for credit losses were $8.9 million and $17.6 million, compared with net loans charged off of $3.1 million and $6.5 million for Q1-07. BXS Reports $0.43 vs. $0.42 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-21 BancorpSouth reported net income of $35.1 million [$0.43/share] compared with $33.6 million [$0.42/share] for Q1-07. ROA was 1.08% compared with 1.11% in Q1-07. ROE was 11.78% compared with 12.90% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $14.86 compared with $13.70 at the end of Q1-07. Net interest revenue was $110.1 million compared with $98.7 million for Q1-07. Net interest margin increased to 3.79% compared with 3.66% for Q1-07. The average FTE yield on earning assets decreased to 6.50% from 6.85% for Q1-07. The average rate paid on interest bearing liabilities was 3.19%, down from 3.80% for Q1-07. BXS expanded interest revenue by continuing to fund loan growth primarily with proceeds from maturing lower yielding investment securities and short-term borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank. As interest rates declined in Q1, demand deposits increased, reducing BXS' use of short-term FHLB borrowings. Noninterest revenue increased 13.5% to $66.2 million from $58.4 million in Q1-07. This growth was driven by a 24.6% increase in insurance commission revenue and 16.0% growth in credit and debit card fee revenue. Non-performing loans and leases increased to $38.7 million [0.42% of loans and leases] at 3-31-08 from $24.2 million [0.28%] at 3-31-07. Annualized net charge-offs were 0.29% of average loans and leases compared with 0.08% for Q1-07. CATY Reports $0.55 vs. $0.57 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-17 Cathay General Bancorp reported Q1-08 Net income of $27.299 million [$0.55/share] compared with $29.966 million [$0.57/share] in Q1-07. ROA was 1.07% compared with 1.45% in Q1-07. ROE was 10.99% compared with 12.87% in Q1-07. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $20.34. Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio = 9.41%. Net interest income before provision for credit losses was $75.190 compared with $72.752 million in Q1-07 while the Provision for credit losses was $7.5 million compared with $1.0 million in Q-07 resulting in Net interest income after provision of $67.690 million compared with $71.752 million in Q1-07. FTE net interest margin was 3.16% compared with 3.43% in Q4-07 and 3.83% in Q1-07. The decrease was primarily as a result of the lag in the downward repricing of certificates of deposit. The FTE yield on average interest-earning assets was 6.46% and average interest-bearing liabilities equaled 3.80%. In Q1-07, the yield on average interest-earning assets was 7.44% and average interest-bearing liabilities equaled 4.27%. Non-interest income was $6.524 million compared with $5.884 million in Q1-07. Letters of credit commissions increased $148,000 to $1.4 million due primarily to increases in acceptance commissions. Other operating income increased $757,000 to $3.8 million due to increases in commissions from foreign currency and exchange transactions offset by decreases in other fees on loans and by decreases in commissions from official checks sales. For Q1-08, CATY recorded no securities gains compared to net securities gains of $191,000 for Q1-07. Total non-performing assets were $69.946 million [1.01% of total loans] compared with $83.7 million [1.25%] at 12-31-07. Net Charge-offs were $4.704 million compared with $0.804 million in Q1-07. CBSH Reports $0.55 vs. $0.65 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-15 Commerce Bancshares announced earnings of $64.2 million [$.89/share] compared to $51.5 million [$.70/share] in Q1-07. ROA was 1.6%, ROE was 16.5%. Book value per share was $21.96. Net interest income was $140.1 million. The FTE net yield on earning assets was 3.79% compared with 3.83% in Q1-07. Non-interest income was $92.2 million compared to $84.3 million in Q1-07. The increase resulted mainly from double digit growth in bank card, brokerage, and bond trading income, in addition to solid growth in trust and corporate cash management fees. Non-Accrual Loans were $25.190 million compared with $17.022 million in Q1-07. Non-Performing Assets were $35.829 million [0.33% of loans] compared with $18.056 million [0.18% of loans] in Q1-07. Net loan charge-offs amounted to $11.9 million, compared with $14.1 million in Q4-07 and $8.2 million in Q1-07. The decrease in net charge-offs compared Q4 was mainly the result of several larger business loan recoveries received this quarter totaling $1.6 million. CFR Reports $0.89 vs. $0.78 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-23 Cullen/Frost Bankers reported Q1-08 net income of $52.8 million [$0.89/share] compared to $47.3 million [$0.78/share] in Q1-07. Q1-07 results included $5.3 million in expenses relating to the early redemption of $100 million [$0.06/share] in trust preferred securities. ROA was 1.59% compared to 1.47% in Q1-07. ROE was 13.89% compared to 13.78% in Q1-07. Book value at the end of Q1-08 was $26.85 compared with $23.64 at the end of Q1-07. FTE Net interest income was $134.8 million comapred with $131.1 million in Q1-07 - and the increase primarily resulted from an increase in the average volume of interest earning assets, an increase in the number of days in the first quarter of 2008 due to leap year and an increase in the net interest margin. The net interest margin was 4.67% compared with 4.65% in Q1-07. Non-interest income was $70.2 million compared with 67.1 million in Q1-07. Trust fees increased 8.1% to $18.3 million from the $16.9 million reported in Q1-07. The increase was primarily a result of an $892 thousand increase in the level of investment fees, which are generally assessed based on the market values of trust assets that are managed and held in custody. These values were $24.4 billion at the end of Q1-08. Service charges on deposits were $19.6 million, up 4.0% compared to Q1-07. Non-performing assets were $36.586 million [0.46% of total loans and foreclosed assets or 0.27% of total assets] compared with $50.484 million [0.68% and 0.38%] in Q1-07. Net charge-offs were $3.846 million [0.20% of average loans] compared with $2.591 million [0.14%] in Q1-07. CFR Conference Call: Home affordability is not a problem in Texas. Example: In LA in 1999 44% of households could afford a median priced house - and that percentage fell to 2% by the end of 2006. In Dallas in 1999 64% of households could afford a median priced house - and that percentage only fell to 62% by the end of 2006. In Austin homes became more affordable over that time period. CNB Reports $0.16 vs. $0.24 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-21 Colonial BancGroup reported Q1-08 net income of $24.797 million [$0.16/share] compared to $36.479 million [$0.24/share] in Q1-07. ROA was 0.36% compared with 0.64% in Q1-07. ROE was 4.37% compared with 7.15% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $13.74 compared with $13.71 at the end of Q1-07. Tier I capital was 8.05% compared wtih 8.91% in Q1-07. Net interest income was $181.624 million compared with $179.945 million in Q1-07. Net interest margin was 2.94% compared with 3.46% in Q1-07. Total interest earning assets were $5.067 billion earning $385.698 million at an average yield of 6.18% compared to 7.25% in Q1-07. Total interest bearing liabilities were $1.699 billion costing $201.913 million at an avereage yield of 3.74% compared to 4.42% in Q1-07. Total noninterest income was $57.747 million compared with $15.219 million in Q1-07. Q1-07 contained Securities restructuring charges of $36.006 million which reduced non-interest income. Colonial’s net charge-offs were $33.593 million [0.84% annualized of average loans] compared to $3.542 million [0.06%] in Q1-07. Nonperforming assets were $266.313 million [1.65% of period end loans] compared to $32.885 million [0.22%] at 3-31-07, reflecting both the continued deterioration in CNB's residential real estate construction portfolio and CNB's decision to work out many of its nonperforming loans rather than sell them at a deep discount to their intrinsic value. CYN Reports $0.91 vs. $1.15 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-15 City National Corporation reported Q1-08 net income of $44.0 million [$0.91/share] compared with $56.5 million [$1.15/share] in Q1-07. ROA was 1.13% compared with 1.55% in Q1-07. ROE was 10.46% compared with 15.10% in Q1-07. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $35.14 compared with 32.72 at the end of Q1-07. The Net Interest Income was $148.165 million compared with $147.269 million in Q1-07. The net interest margin averaged 4.26%. Total interest-bearing deposits were $6.427 billion with an average cost of 3.18%. Total interest-bearing liabilities were $7.608 billion with an average cost of 3.57%. Total interest-earning assets were $13.660 billion with an average yield of 6.48%. Total noninterest income was $79.816 million compared with $65.948 million in Q1-07. Trust and investment fees were $36.349 million vs. $30.254 million in Q1-07 - up 20%; Brokerage and mutual fund fees were $17.422 million vs. $13.780 million in Q1-07 - up 26%; and Cash management and deposit transaction fees were $11.124 million vs. $8.471 million in Q1-07 - up 31%. Nonaccrual loans of $113.6 million and other real estate owned assets of $3.8 million at 3-31-08 totaled $117.4 million, or 1% of total loans and other nonperforming assets, compared with $75.6 million [0.65%] last quarter and $23.4 million [0.22%] the same period last year. Net loan charge-offs were $12.1 million, compared with $3.9 million last quarter and net recoveries of $1.2 million in Q1-07. The increase in charge-offs occurred primarily in the residential homebuilder portfolio. EWBC Reports $0.08 vs. $0.69 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-16 East West Bancorp reported Net income of $5.44 million [$0.08/share] compared to $42.096 million [$0.69/share] in Q1-07 due to EWBC recording a total provision for loan losses of $55.0 million. This additional provision has increased the allowance for loan losses and unfunded commitments to total loans ratio to 1.46%, a substantial increase from 1.13% at year-end 2007. ROE was 1.74% while ROA totaled 0.17%. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $17.42 compared to $18.56 at the end of Q1-07. Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 8.78%. Net interest income totaled $99.6 million, 1% greater than Q1-07. The net interest margin totaled 3.63% compared to 3.95% in Q1-07. The yield on average earning assets was 6.81%, a decrease of 66 basis points from Q1-07. Most of EWBC's loans are at variable rates, with 60% of the loans repriced immeditately; 17% re-price within a year, and 7% is tied to intermediate indexes that reprices between 1-3 years. The average cost of funds for the first quarter equaled 3.35%, a 35 basis point decrease from Q1-07. Noninterest income totaled $15.9 million, 27% or $3.4 million higher than Q1-07. Total nonperforming assets as of March 31, 2008 totaled $74.5 million or 0.63% of total assets, compared to $67.5 million, or 0.57% of total assets at December 31, 2007. [NPAs = $74.467 million while Total loans receivable were $8,955.294 million giving a self calculated NPA to total loan percentage of 0.831%] Net chargeoffs were $25.4 million compared to net chargeoffs of $156 thousand for Q1-07 and $5.2 million for Q4-07. Of the total gross chargeoffs, 39% or $10.0 million resulted from one commercial loan which was completely written off. FCBP Reports - $10.05 vs. $0.62 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-17 First Community Bancorp reported a net loss of $272.7 million [$10.05/share] caused by a $275.0 million write-off of goodwill made in response to volatility in the banking industry and the effect volatility has had on the market prices of banking stocks. Net earnings excluding the write-off totaled $2.3 million [$0.08/share] compared to $17.1 million [$0.62/share] for Q4-07, and $28.5 million [$0.98/share] for Q1-07. The decrease resulted primarily from a higher provision for credit losses. ROA [based on operating earnings of $0.08/share] was 0.18% compared with 2.10% in Q1-07 and ROE was 0.80% compared to 9.91% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $30.49 compared with $40.65 at the end of Q4-07. Net interest income totaled $57.9 million compared to $62.9 million for Q4-07 and $69.4 million for Q1-07. The decrease was due mainly to lower loan yields from reductions in our base lending rate and lower average construction loan balances. The net interest margin was 5.58%, a decrease of 53 bps [5.91%] from Q4 and a decrease of 75 bps from Q1-07, due mainly to lower loan yields. The yield on average earning assets was 7.47% for Q1-08 compared to 8.19% for Q4-07 and 8.44% for Q1-07. The yield on average loans was 7.57% for Q1-08 compared to 8.29% for Q4-07 and 8.55% for Q1-07. Our average loan yield for March 2008 was 7.37%, a decline of 73 bps from our December 2007 loan yield of 8.10%. The cost of deposits and other funding declined. The average cost of deposits was 1.46% for Q1-08 compared to 1.67% for Q4-07 and 1.51% for Q1-07. Noninterest income totaled $6.6 million compared to $5.4 million in Q4-07 and $14.4 million in Q1-07. The increase compared to Q4-07 is due mostly to increased gain on sale of loans and other income [$0.269 million] compared to a net loss of $0.543 million for Q4-07. The decrease in noninterest income compared to the first quarter of 2007 is due mostly to the sale of the participating interest in commercial real estate mortgage loans in March 2007, which generated a gain of $6.6 million, and net gains of $876,000 on the sale of SBA loans. In mid-March FCBP sold $34.1 million of construction related nonaccrual loans at a loss of $16.2 million which was charged to the allowance for credit losses. Nonperforming assets totaled $38.0 million at the end of March, up $12.8 million from the $25.3 million at the end of December. Nonaccrual loans increased $9.5 million to $32.0 million [0.81% of total loans] and OREO increased $3.3 million to $6.1 million as of March 31, 2008. Net charge-offs were $18.158 million [1.82% of average loans] compared with $2.836 million [0.07%] in Q4-07 and $0.256 million [0.02%] in Q1-07. FHN Reports $0.06 vs. $0.45 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-17 First Horizon reported Net income (loss) of $7.920 [$0.06/share] compared to ($248.625 million) [loss of $1.97/share] in Q4-07 $70.547 million [$0.45/share] in Q1-07. Visa's IPO resulted in $95.9 million benefit to pre-tax earnings. ROA was .09%. ROE was 1.47%. Book Value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $16.59. Net interest income was $228.092 million compared to $237.419 million in Q1-07. Net interest margin was 2.81%. Noninterest income was $383.130 million compared to $272.915 million in Q1-07. The net charge-off ratio was 181 basis points compared to 93 bps in Q4-07 as net charge-offs increased to $99.1 million from $50.8 million in Q4-07. FNB Reports $0.27 vs. $0.29 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-17 F.N.B. Corporation reported Q1-08 net income of $16.5 million [$0.27/share] compared to $17.4 million [$0.29/share] for Q1-07. ROE was 12.1% and ROA was 1.09%. Book value per share was $8.97 compared with $8.91 at the end of Q1-07. Net interest income was $48.965 million compared with $47.920 million in Q1-07. FTE Net interest margin was 3.73% compared with 3.73% in Q1-07. FTE Yield on earning assets was 6.66% compared with 6.98% in Q1-07 while the Cost of funds was 3.25% compared with 3.61% in Q-07. Non-interest income was $22.168 million compared with $20.916 million in Q-07, with the top three line of non-interest income being Service charges [$10.186 million], Insurance commissions and fees [$3.922 million], and Trust income [$2.224 million]. Non-performing assets were $42.115 million [0.95% of total loans + OREO] compared with $32.300 million [0.76%] in Q1-07. Net loan charge-offs were $2.992 milliopn [0.27% of average loans] compared with $2.459 million [0.23%] in Q1-07. GBCI Reports $0.32 vs. $0.29 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-24 Glacier Bancorp reported Q1-08 net earnings of $17.399 million [$0.32/share] compared with $16.093 million [$0.30/share] for Q1-07. Included in Q1-07 earnings is a nonrecurring $1.0 million gain from the sale of Western Security Bank's Lewistown, Montana branch and approximately $500 thousand of nonrecurring expenses from the merger of three of the acquired Citizens Development Company's five subsidiaries. Excluding nonrecurring Q1-07 earnings were $0.29/share. ROA was 1.46% compared with 1.48% in Q1-07. ROE was 12.98% compared with 14.02% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $10.07. Net interest income was $48.629 million compared with $43.091 million in Q1-07. FTE net interest margin was 4.54% compared with 4.47% in Q1-07. Total Earning Assets were $4.416 billion earning $76.016 million at an average yield of 6.89%. Total Interest Bearing Liabilities were $3490 billion costing $27.387 million at an average yield of 3.15%. Total non-interest income was $16.262 million compared with $15.692 million in Q1-07. This increase came from gains in Service charges and other fees [going from $9.471 million to $8.263 million] and Gain on sale of loans [which went from 3.880 million to $3.042 million]. Non-performing assets as a percentage of total bank assets was 0.57% compared with a Federal Reserve Bank Peer Group average of .80%. Charged off loans exceeded recovery of previously charged-off loans $233 thousand and Net charge-offs as a percentage of loans was 0.006%. HBHC Reports $0.63 vs. $0.59 in Q1-07 Prime Newswire 4-22 Hancock Holding Company reported Q1-08 earnings of $20.1 million [$0.63/share] compared to $19.2 million [$.59/share] in Q1-07. ROA was 1.30% and ROE was 14.13%. The Tier I ratio was 8.34%. Book value per share was $18.41. FTE Net interest income was $52.925 million compared with $53.816 million in Q1-07. The Provision for loan losses was $8.818 million compared with $1.211 million in Q1-07. FTE net interest margin was 3.80%. Average earning assets were $5.581 billion earning $87.270 million with an average FTE yield of 6.28%. The total Cost of $5.581 billion in funds was $34.344 million with an average yield of 2.47%. Noninterest income [excluding securities transactions] was $30.728 million compared with $26.457 million in Q1-07. Total non-performing assets were $16.602 million [0.46% of loans and foreclosed assets] compared with $5.212 million [0.16%] in Q-07. Net charge-offs were $2.933 million [0.32% of average loans] compared with $1.466 million [0.18%] in Q1-07. PCBC Reports $1.56 vs. $1.09 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-29 Pacific Capital Bancorp reported Q1-08 net income of $72.5 million [$1.56/share] compared with $51.6 million [$1.09/share] in Q1-07. Pretax income from the Company’s Refund Anticipation Loan (RAL) and Refund Transfer (RT) programs was $108.0 million compared to $56.3 million for Q1-07. PCBC currently estimates a loss rate of approximately 1.00% of total RALs originated in the 2008 program compared to 1.98% of total RALs originated in 2007. The reduced loss rate, combined with significant growth in the number of independent tax preparers who offer PCBC's RAL and RT products to their customers, resulted in a dramatic increase in profitability for the 2008 programs. ROE for the Consolidated PCBC was 41.64% compared with 32.96% in Q1-07. ROE for the Core Bank was 7.48% compared with 15.42% in Q1-07. ROE for RAL and RT was 150.23% compared with 97.86% in Q1-07. ROA for the Consolidated PCBC was 3.47% compared with 2.41% in Q1-07. ROA for the Core Bank was 0.55% compared with 1.06% in Q1-07. ROA for RAL and RT was 21.87% compared with 9.35% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $15.89 compared with $14.10 at the end of Q1-07. Tier 1 capital to Average Tangible Assets ratio was 7.6%. Net interest income $161.2 million compared with $175.4 million in Q1-07. Net interest income for the Core Bank was $60.0 million compared with $70.7 million in Q1-07. The decrease in Core Bank net interest income is primarily attributable to the sale and transfer of loans during Q2-07 and Q1-08, and a decline in loan interest rates that could not be fully offset by reductions in interest expense on deposits. The net interest margin 9.00% compared with 9.48% in Q1-07. For the Core Bank, net interest margin was 3.64% compared with 4.27% in Q1-07 and 3.62% in Q4-07. Non-interest income was $125.3 million compared with $104.3 million in Q1-07. The increase was primarily attributable to an increase in RT fees. For the Core Bank, excluding gains on securities sales, non-interest income was $15.7 million compared with $16.8 million in Q1-07. The decline was attributable to a reduction in the valuation of mortgage servicing assets due to decreasing interest rates and the write-off of a building and leasehold improvements, which were partially offset by an increase in Wealth Management fees due to the acquisition of R.E. Wacker in January 2008. Total non-performing assets were $163.7 million [2.37% of total assets] compared with $76.7 million [1.04%] in Q4-07. [$163.7 million divided by Total loans held for investment of $5,481.972 million generates a self calculated NPA to loan percentage of 2.986%] Net charge-offs were $2.2 million [0.16% of average loans] compared with $1.4 million [0.10%] in Q4-07. PRSP Reports $0.52 vs. $0.50 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-18 Prosperity Bancshares reported net income of $22.938 million [$0.52/share] compared with $20.229 million [$0.50/share] for Q1-07. ROA was 1.43% while ROE was 8.02%. Book value per share was $25.93 compared with $20.26 at the end of Q1-07. Tier 1 risk-based capital was 13.16% Net interest income before provision for credit losses increased 12.8% to $51.995 million compared with $46.088 million in Q1-07. The Net Interest Margin was 3.97% while the FTE margin was 4.03%. Total interest earning assets were $5.253 billion earning $84.465 million at an average yield of 6.45%. Total interest bearing liabilities were $4.058 billion costing $32.470 million at an average yield of 3.21%. Non-interest income increased 8.6% to $12.679 million compared with $11.671 million for Q1-07. The increase was attributable primarily to deposit service charges on the increased number of deposit accounts as a result of the additional banking centers acquired in January 2007, September 2007 and January 2008. Service charges on deposit accounts were $10.506 million compared with $6.769 million in Q1-07. Non-performing assets totaled $17.554 million or 0.33% of average earning assets at March 31, 2008 compared with $4.314 million or 0.09% of average earning assets at March 31, 2007 and $15.390 million or 0.30% of average earnings assets at 12-31-07. Net charge-offs were $1.643 million compared with $0.247 million in Q1-07. Conference Call: As deposits re-price [as CDs roll over, PRSP still has 4.45% CDs which will roll to 2.65%], the margin should improve. Approx 50% of current CDs will turn in next six months - most of CDs were short term. PRSP has no CDOs, SIVs or other products that have experienced strain. PRSP does not do sub-prime lending. NPAs = $5 million in loans, $.126 reposessed land, and $11 million in other real estate [ORE]. The loan portfolio is 40% at fixed rates, 32% floating, and 28% re-setting at fixed intervals. Credit quality in Texas? PRSP: Things should improve for us. Housing market is not in as good a shape as a year ago. In Commercial real estate there is some strain - and many are sitting on the side lines due to lack of credit. Will acquisition of First Choice increase your NPAs? PRSP: They have $180 million in loans vs. our $3 billion. First Choice's loan quality is pretty good. Detail on OREs? PRSP: Four large OREs make up $8 million of the $11 million. Two were retail centers and one is under contract. The other two are residential - and we have offers, but no firm contract on those. Approx 72% on the NPA list was on the list in December. Good news - not much in additions. Bad news, we did not move any of the big ORE's. Is this the peak of NPAs? PRSP: We can't say that. Service charges were softer - why? PRSP: There is no clear answer. Some is seasonality. NSF charges have fallen off. Our Theory: with $3.00 gas - people are looking at their pocket book more and paying closer attention. What is lending environment? PRSP: A lot of lenders did not factor risk into pricing, and more are doing that now. And that enables us to get a better rate structure. M and A's - is pricing getting better and what is the environment? PRSP: We have done some smaller deals and looking at more - but we have not been as aggressive due to big acquisitions in the past. We wanted to get our hands around that. On pricing - sellers have not changed their asking prices, but we think they know that the prices have dropped. We will be oppertunistic. Total residential loans? PRSP: They are 15% of our loan portfolio. Your loan loss provision was up - was that due to regulators, or internal concern about your portfolio? PRSP: It is a combination of factors - and based on a formula. There is an economic variable in that, and risk is up. Some of our loans from our acquisitions needed higher reserves - and they came with higher reserves. Commercial real esate loans are up - what type? PRSP: There has not been a change in type. If there is softness, it is more on the retail side, and while we are more cautious with those, the softness is not pronounced. The office sector is good - as is mini-storage. RF Reports $0.55 vs. $0.65 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-15 Regions Financial reported Q1-08 Income from continuing operations, excluding merger-related charges, of $383.6 million [$0.55/share] or $336.7 million [$0.48/share] including merger-related charges compared to 504.5 million [$0.69/share] in Q-07. Results include a $91.2 million gain from Visa-related share redemption and litigation expense reduction and $91.6 million from sale of investment securities. Offsetting this were $131.9 million of charges including an MSR impairment, loss on early extinguishment of debt and a loss on investments in two Morgan Keegan mutual funds. ROA was 0.95% compared to 0.95% in Q1-07. ROE was 17.84% compared to 16.29% in Q-07. Total Stockholders' Equity [$20,021,921] divided by Weighted-average shares outstanding - diluted [695.548 million] results in a calculated Book value of $28.79 compared with Yahoo's estimate of $28.82. FTE Net interest income was $1.026 billion compared to $1.175 billion in Q1-07. FTE Net interest margin was 3.53% compared to 3.61% in Q4-07 and 3.99% in Q1-07. Low cost deposits were down. Non-interest income was $908.3 million compared to $696.9 million in Q-08. Service charges on deposit accounts were $271.613 million compared to $284.097 million in Q1-07; Brokerage and investment banking were $229.203 million compared to $186.195 million in Q1-07; and Securities gains were $91.643 million compared to $0.304 million in Q1-07. Total non-performing assets (including loans 90 days past due) as a percentage of loans and other real estate were 1.73% compared to 1.28% in Q4-07 and 0.67% in Q1-07. Net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans were 0.53% compared to 0.45% in Q4-07 and 0.20% in Q1-07. Conference Call: RF originated loans in house and did not use option ARMs or negative amortization loans or other alternative loan products, with minimal exposer to sub-prime, so RF should perform better than its peres. RF is in a capital preservation mode, thus no share repurchases are planned. The dividend payout ratio is at 75%, how secured is it? RF: Given earnings stream going forward, we are confortable going forward. A 50-60% range of payout ratio is the long term goal. The biggest change over the last 12 months is the velocity of change in property valuations. There have been shifts of as much as 40% of property valuations in some markets - and customers are walking away from those loans. We are writing these loans off - not just down. Because the environment is changing so quickly, we do not see the point in updating forecasts on charge-offs and NPAs. The problems are residential builders and consumer real estate loans. And we project those conditions will continue to deteriorate. RF has had Alt-A loans for 15 years. RF's alt-A is not due to low FICO scores or low LTVs, but due to structure. We are very conservative in our Alt-A classifications, where Alt-A can mean very different things to different people. You have a 1.1 ratio of reserves to NPAs - would you let that fall below one if NPAs are rising? We look at how we assess risk on different loans each quarter - and we do not look at one specific ratio. There were some problem loan sales of home builder loans - but we did not take much of a hair-cut on those sales. RF has a 75% LTV metric on all home loans - what is the LTV on your second lien product? RF: We are insured on those second position loans [which primarily came from AmSouth] - and we shy away from dong high LTVs on second liens. RF's 7.3% tier one captal - the quality is high due to most of it being from common stock, but it absolute number is low. Tier one is at the 8.7% level at the 'bank level' - and that is the metric that concern the regulators. We have less hybred capital. We would have taken the hybred percentage up, but that is not available right now. The rating agencies do not look at the percentages as being low. We are quarterly reassesing the amont on HELOCs - and we are reducing credit lines in some locations. Condo portfolio is perfroming well, and that portfolio is falling due to pay-downs. Morgan Keegan continues to add locations and staff. We see huge opertunites to add market share. TRMK Reports $0.46 vs. $0.44 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-22 Trustmark Corporation announced net income of $26.179 million [$0.46/share] compared with $25.857 million [$0.44/share] in Q1`-07. ROE was 11.29% compared with 11.68% in Q1-07. ROA was 1.19% compared with 1.19$ in Q1-07. Book value at the end of Q1-08 was $16.36 compared with $15.36 at the end of Q1-07. FTE Net interest income after provision was $62.827 million compared with $72.856 million, down $10.029 million while the provision increased $12.604 million. The FTE Net interest margin was 3.94% compared with 3.89% in Q1-07. The average yield on earning assets was 6.57% compared with 6.96% in Q1-07. The average yield on interest bearing liabilities was 2.63% compared with 3.07% in Q1-07. Total noninterest income was $48.516 million compared to $38.151 million in Q1-07, led by an increase of $8 million in mortgage income. Nonperforming assets totaled $87.6 million at March 31, 2008, up $14.1 million relative to the prior quarter, to represent 1.21% of total loans and other real estate. This change was largely attributable to residential real estate loans in the Corporation’s Florida Panhandle market. Net charge-offs were $12.3 million, or 0.69% of average loans, in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $9.5 million, or 0.53% of average loans in Q4-07. UB Reports $0.41 vs. $0.35 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-23 UnionBanCal Corporation reported Q1-08 net income of $108.6 million [$0.79/share] compared with $149.6 million [$1.07/share] in Q1-07. Q1-08 included: a $14.1 million [$0.10/share] write-down of goodwill related to the assessment of the valuation of the insurance brokerage business; an $8.7 million [$0.06/share] gain on Visa stock; and a $3.1 million [$0.02/share] reversal of Visa litigation reserves. ROE was 9.26% compared with 13.45% in Q1-07. ROA was 0.77% compared with 1.51% in Q1-07. Book value was $34.17 compared with $32.98 at the end of Q1-07. UB's Tier I and total risk-based capital ratios at period-end were 8.07% and 10.98%. Net interest income was $462 million compared with $429 million in Q1-07, primarily due to strong loan growth, lower rates paid on interest bearing liabilities and one more day in the quarter, partially offset by lower yields on earning assets and a deposit mix shift from noninterest bearing and low-cost deposits into higher-cost deposits. Average noninterest bearing deposits represented 28.9% of average total deposits in first quarter 2008. The annualized average all-in cost of funds improved to 2.26% compared with 2.56% in Q1-07. The average yield on earning assets was 5.72%, down 34 basis points from Q1-07, with the average loan yield decreasing 39 bps. The average rate on interest bearing liabilities of $37.7 billion was 3.02%, down 75 bps compared with Q1-07, reflecting recent decreases in short-term interest rates. The net interest margin was 3.54%, compared with 3.57% in Q1-07. Noninterest income was $213 million, up $1.8 million [or 0.8%] from Q1-07. Service charges on deposit accounts were flat. Trust and investment management fees increased $6.5 million [17.7%] primarily due to an increase in trust assets. Gain on private capital investments, net, was $1.1 million, a decrease of $8.0 million compared with Q1-07. UB recorded a $14.2 million gain on Visa stock. Other noninterest income declined $6.4 million [23%] primarily due to a gain on the sale of real property recorded in Q1-07. Nonperforming assets at 3-31-08 were $132 million [0.23% of total assets] compared with $42 million [0.08% of total assets] at 3-31-07. The increase was due primarily to nonperforming loans in the construction portfolio, virtually all attributable to the homebuilder sector, and an increase in commercial and industrial nonperforming loans. [$131.687 million divided by Total loans of $43,449.968 million generates a self calculated NPA to loan percentage of 0.303%] Net loans charged-off were $12 million [0.11% of average total loans] compared with $2 million [0.03% of average total loans] in Q1-07. UCBH Reports $0.02 vs. $0.26 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-25 United Commercial Bank reported Q1-08 net income of $2.2 million [$0.02/share] compared with $27.0 million [$0.26/share] in Q1-007. The decrease was attributable primarily to an increased loan loss provision of $35.1 million which was related to specific loan loss reserves on construction loans in distressed areas, as well as an increase in the overall loan loss reserve ratio. Also impacting earnings was a $3.8 million additional write-down on two non-bank REIT TPS collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) and a $1.4 million lower of cost or market charge on commercial real estate loans held for sale. ROA was 0.07% compared with 1.09% in Q1-07. ROE was 0.89% compared with 13.43% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $9.66. Tier 1 risk-based capital was 8.82%. FTE Net interest income was $86.3 million compared with $75.9 million in Q1-07. This increase was due to organic balance sheet growth and the acquisitions of The Chinese American Bank in May 2007 and UCBC in December 2007. The net interest margin was 3.04% compared with 3.39% in Q4-07 and 3.26% for Q1-07. The reversal of interest accrued for the nonperforming assets due to downgrades in Q1-08 had a negative impact of 18 bps on the margin. The decrease in the net interest margin year over year reflects the effect of a 76 bps decrease in loan yields, partially offset by a 49 bps decrease in the funding costs. Noninterest income was $3.6 million compared with $12.4 million Q1-07. Included in Q1-08 noninterest income was the previously mentioned $3.8 million and $1.4 million charges. Net loan charge-offs were $12.3 million [0.62%] compared with $1.7 million [0.10%] in Q1-07. Nonperforming assets were $185.1 million [1.45% of total assets] at March 31, 2008, compared with $57.0 million [0.48%] at December 31, 2007. The increase in nonperforming assets was due to the downgrade of certain construction loans. [$185.050 million divided by Total loans of $8,353.026 million generates a self calculated NPA to loan percentage of 2.215%] UMBF Reports $0.78 vs. $0.41 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-22 UMB Financial Corporation announced earnings of $32.4 million [$0.78/share] compared to $17.3 million [$0.41/share] for Q1-07. Q1-08 included a gain of $8.9 million from shares in Visa and a reduced liability accrual of $4.0 million. Excluding the Visa-related transactions, net income was $24.1 million [$0.59/share]. ROA was 1.50% compared with 0.86% in Q1-07. ROE was 14.12% compared with 8.19% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $22.57 compared with $20.42 at the end of Q1-07. Net interest income after provision for loan losses was $61.374 million compared with $55.464 million in Q1-07. Total interest earning assets were 7.786 billion with an average yield of 5.50% compared with assets of $7.308 billion with an average yield of 5.96% in Q1-07. Total interest-bearing liabilities were $5.840 billion with an average yield of 2.67% compared with $5.436 billion with an average yield of 3.56% in Q1-07. The Net interest margin was 3.50% compared with 3.32% in Q1-07. Noninterest income was $84.989 million compared with $67.439 million in Q1-07, with most of the gain from Visa. Nonaccrual and restructured loans were $5.054 million [0.12% of loans] compared with $7.613 million [0.20%] in Q1-07. Net loan charge-offs were $1.505 million [0.15% of average loans] compared with $1.663 million [0.17%] in Q1-07. UMPQ Reports $0.41 vs. $0.35 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-17 Umpqua Holdings Corporation reported Q1-08 net income of $24.7 million [$0.41/share] compared to $20.7 million [$0.35/share] for Q1-07. Following the Visa IPO, UMPQ received $12.6 million in proceeds from the offering. ROA was 1.20% compared to 0.46% in Q4-07 and 1.15% in Q1-07. ROE was 7.94% compared to 3.04% in Q4-07 and 7.22% in Q1-07. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $20.93. Net interest income was $70.020 million compared to $71.453 million in Q4-07 and $68.310 million in Q1-07. FTE net interest margin was 3.98% compared to 4.00% for Q4-07, and 4.47% for Q1-07. The decrease in net interest margin over the last year resulted from volatility in short-term market interest rates and the competitive climate, characterized by declining earning asset yields. The $0.3 million interest reversal on non-accrual loans noted above resulted in a 2 basis point decline in the tax equivalent net interest margin during the quarter. Total yield on earning assets was 6.53% compared to 7.42% in Q1-07. Total cost of interest bearing liabilities was 3.21% compared to 3.78% in Q1-07. Total non-interest income was $28.983 million comapared to $16.387 million in Q4-07 and $13.965 million in Q1-07. Non-performing assets were $88.3 million [1.06% of total assets] as of 3-31-08 compared to $98.0 million [1.18%] as of 12-31-07. [$88.339 million divided by Total loans of $6,044.956 million generates a self calculated NPA to loan percentage of 1.461%] Of this amount, $3.3 million represented loans past due greater than 90 days and still accruing interest, $71.7 million of non-accrual loans, and $13.3 million of other real estate owned. This represents a reduction of 18% and 10% in non-performing loans and non-performing assets, respectively, from December 31, 2007. Net charge-offs were $13.5 million compared to $21.2 million for Q4-07. WABC Reports $0.92 vs. $0.76 in Q1-07 Business Wire 4-15 Westamerica Bancorporation reported net income of $26.8 million [$0.92/share] compared to $23.6 million [$0.76/share] for Q1-07. Q1-08 results include benefits from Visa’s IPO of $4.7 million [$0.16/share] while Q1-07 results include a gain on company-owned life insurance [$0.02/share]. ROA was 2.43% compared with 2.03% in Q1-07. ROE was 27.3% compared with 23.0% in Q1-07. Book Value was $13.87 compared with $13.92 at the end of Q1-07. Tier I Capital/Total Assets was 6.53%. FTE Net interest income $48.0 million compared to $46.9 million for Q1-07. The FTE Yield on Earning Assets was 6.06% compared with 6.11% in Q1-07. The Cost of Funds was 1.27% compared with 1.70% in Q1-07. The FTE net interest margin was 4.79% compared to 4.41% for Q1-07. Noninterest income rose to $19.4 million compared to $15.3 million for Q1-07 primarily due to the $5.7 million in securities gains from Visa. Total Nonperforming Loans were $5.648 million [0.23% of loans] compared with $4.882 million [0.19% of loans] in Q1-07. WTNY Reports $0.45 vs. $0.55 in Q1-07 Prime Newswire 4-22 Whitney Holding Corporation reported Q1-08 earnings of $29.9 million [$0.45/share] compared with $37.0 million [$0.55/share] for Q1-07. ROA was 1.11% compared with 1.48% in Q1-07. ROE was 9.76% compared with 13.10% in Q1-07. Book value per share was $18.90. FTE Net interest income was $114.815 million compared with $116.397 million in Q1-07 while the provision for credit losses was $14 million compared with ($2 million) in Q1-07. Net interest margin was 4.64% compared with 5.08% in Q1-07. Noninterest income was $28.476 million compared with $24.049 million in Q-07. The total of loans criticized through WTNY's credit risk-rating process was $392 million at March 31, 2008, which represents 5% of total loans. Nonperforming assets as a percentage of loans plus foreclosed assets and surplus property was 1.96% compared with 0.76% in Q1-07. Net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans were 0.53% compared with recoveries of 0.01% in Q1-07. ZION Reports $0.98 vs. $1.36 in Q1-07 PRNewswire 4-17 Zions Bancorporation reported Q1-08 net earnings of $104.3 million [$0.98/share] compared to $149.7 million [$1.36/share] for Q1-07. Q1-08 results contained a Visa IPO gain and litigation accrual reversal of $18.0 million [$0.10/share]. Zion recognized other-than-temporary impairment charge-offs of approximately $40.8 million pretax [$0.24/share] mainly for certain available-for-sale trust preferred REIT CDOs and Zions Bank purchased certain securities at fair value from Lockhart of $280 million at book value made pursuant to a liquidity agreement and recognized a $5.2 million [$0.03/share] loss. ROE was 8.18% compared to 12.25% for Q1-07. ROA was 0.81% compared to 1.31% for Q1-07. Book value per share at the end of Q1-08 was $47.49 compared to $46.04 at the end of Q1-07. FTE net interest income was $492.5 million compared to $485.2 million for Q4-07 and $463.7 million for Q1-07. The net interest margin was 4.23% compared to 4.27% for Q4-07 and 4.51% for Q1-07. The effect of commercial paper purchased from Lockhart on the net interest margin was a reduction of approximately 11 bps for Q1-08 and 6 bps for Q4-07. Total interest-earning assets were $46.853 billion earnings $796.194 million at an average yield of 6.83%. Total interest-bearing liabilities were $37.887 billion costing $303.657 million at an average yield of 3.22%. Noninterest income was $111.0 million compared to $(20.2) million for Q4-07 and $145.4 million for Q1-07. The amounts for the Q1-08 and Q4-07 were adversely affected by impairment and valuation losses on securities of $46.0 million and $158.2 million, respectively. Excluding these losses, noninterest income was $157.0 million for Q1-08 and $138.0 million for Q4-07. Noninterest income for Q1-08 includes $12.4 million Visa IPO gain. Nonperforming assets were $434.3 million [1.09% of net loans and leases] compared to $283.9 million [0.73%] at 12-31-07 and $82.5 million [0.23%] at 3-31-07. This increase is primarily due to weakness in residential development and construction activity. Net loan and lease charge-offs were $50.8 million [0.52% annualized of average loans] compared with $26.7 million [0.28%] for Q4-07 and $10.1 million [0.11%] for Q1-07. The increase in charge-offs largely was driven by declining collateral values on residential acquisition, development and construction loans in the Southwest. Ratings & Dividend Changes On 4-07 Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded CNB from Sell to Hold. On 4-16 RBC Capital Markets Downgraded EWBC from Outperform to Sector Perform. On 4-18 Keefe Bruyette Downgraded UMPQ from Market Perform to Underperform. On 4-24 ZION was upgraded by research firm R.W. Baird. Analyst David George wrote in a research note Thursday that Zion's recent share weakness presented an attractive buying opportunity for an otherwise strong financial stock. "We believe the shares' discounted valuation will mitigate downside risk to the stock, and investors will get paid a secure 4% dividend to wait for an eventual earnings recovery at Zions, which we expect to manifest itself in the company's earnings run-rate at some point in 2009," he said in an upgrade to a outperform rating. George said the bank was well-capitalized and should be able to maintain its dividend payout. On 4-01 CATY declared a dividend of $0.105/share payable on April 22, 2008, to stockholders of record on April 11, 2008. On 4-16 CBSH declared a dividend of $0.25/share payable June 27, 2008, to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 9, 2008. On 4-16 EWBC declared a dividend of $0.10/share payable on or about May 14, 2008 to shareholders of record on April 30, 2008. On 4-22 TRMK declared a dividend of $0.23/share payable June 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on June 1, 2008. On 4-22 UMBF declared an increased dividend of $0.165/share payable on July 1, 2008 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 11, 2008. On 4-23 BXS declared an increased dividend of $0.22/share payable July 1, 2008 to shareholders of record at the close of business of June 13, 2008. On 4-23 CYN declared a dividend of $0.48/share payable on May 21, 2008 to stockholders of record on May 7, 2008. On 4-24 ZION declared a dividend of $0.43/share payable May 21, 2008 to shareholders of record on May 7, 2008. On 4-24 CFR declared an increased dividend of $0.42/share payable June 13, 2008 to shareholders of record on May 30th. On 4-29 BOKF declared an increased dividend of $0.225/share payable on or about May 29, 2008, to shareholders of record on May 15. On 4-02 Standard & Poor's Equity Strategy Group upgraded its recommended weighting of the Financials sector to market weight, from underweight, based on what we view as an improving technical and fundamental outlook. The sector now trades at a P/E ratio on estimated 2008 earnings per share of 12.4 times, vs. 14.2 times for the broader market. Its P/E to projected five-year EPS growth rate (PEG) of 1.1 times is in line with the market's PEG of 1.1 times. There are currently nine 5-STARS recommendations: AFLAC (AFL), Allied Irish Banks (AIB), Banco Santander (STD), Chubb (CB), Cullen Frost Bankers (CFR), Hartford Financial Services (HIG), Lloyds TSB Group (LYG), MetLife (MET), and Simon Property Group (SPG). On 3-17 UMPQ declared a dividend of $0.19/share payable on April 15, 2008 to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2008. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |