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Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 21% to 80%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. First Community Bancorp Becomes PacWest Bancorp PRNewswire 5-14 PacWest Bancorp (PACW), which was known as First Community Bancorp (FCBP), announced today that it has completed its reincorporation in Delaware effective May 14, 2008. Shareholders are not required to exchange certificates of First Community Bancorp for new certificates of PacWest Bancorp. The reincorporation did not alter any shareholder's percentage ownership interest, or number of shares owned, in the Company. Ratings & Dividend Changes On 5-07 Lehman Brothers Upgraded UB from Equal-Weight to Overweight. On 5-13 Keefe Bruyette Downgraded HBHC from Outperform to Market Perform. On 5-16 FTN Midwest Downgraded UBCH from Buy to Neutral. On 5-16 Merrill Lynch downgraded Regions Financial and KeyCorp to sell from neutral on fears of declining credit quality. Merrill trimmed its earnings estimates [this looks more like a price target] for Regions by $0.88 to $20.44 and by $0.93 to $24.16 for KeyCorp. Analyst Ed Najarian told investors in a research note that Merrill continues to expect large loan loss reserves at the nation's larger regional banks, but sees the potential for recovery in 2009. Merrill maintained its sell rating on other regional banks Wells Fargo, SunTrust Banks and Wachovia Corp. On 5-16 Janney Montgomery Scott downgraded Colonial BancGroup to "neutral" from "buy," saying the financial services company is being hurt by the recession in residential construction markets in Florida and metropolitan Atlanta. In the near term, credit trends suggests that things could get worse before they get better, Janney's analyst Kevin Reynolds said in a research note. A turnaround in the Florida market is expected no sooner than the first half of 2009, analyst James Schutz of Sterne Agee & Leach had said earlier. Shares of Colonial will likely remain under significant pressure until the credit quality metrics show substantial and sustained improvement, a situation that may take several quarters to materialize, Reynolds added. The brokerage said it would avoid purchasing Colonial shares despite what appears to be bargain pricing at current levels, recognizing the heightened level of risk and uncertainty surrounding an investment in Colonial in the current environment. Analyst Reynolds also reduced his 2008 earnings estimates of Colonial to 45 cents a share from 70 cents, citing higher share count resulting from a recent equity offering, in addition to higher provisioning levels over the balance of 2008. The brokerage said it cut its fair value estimate on the company's stock to $7 from $12 to reflect lower earnings estimates. On 5-13 HBHC declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable June 16, 2008, to shareholders of record as of June 5, 2008. On 5-13 PACW declared a dividend of $0.32/share payable on June 3, 2008, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 27, 2008. On 5-14 FNB declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable on June 15, 2008, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 1, 2008. On 5-28 WTNY declared a dividend $0.31/share payable on July 1, 2008 to shareholders of record as of June 16, 2008. On 4-01 CATY declared a dividend of $0.105/share payable on April 22, 2008, to stockholders of record on April 11, 2008. On 4-16 CBSH declared a dividend of $0.25/share payable June 27, 2008, to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 9, 2008. On 4-16 EWBC declared a dividend of $0.10/share payable on or about May 14, 2008 to shareholders of record on April 30, 2008. On 4-22 TRMK declared a dividend of $0.23/share payable June 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on June 1, 2008. On 4-22 UMBF declared an increased dividend of $0.165/share payable on July 1, 2008 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 11, 2008. On 4-23 BXS declared an increased dividend of $0.22/share payable July 1, 2008 to shareholders of record at the close of business of June 13, 2008. On 4-23 CYN declared a dividend of $0.48/share payable on May 21, 2008 to stockholders of record on May 7, 2008. On 4-24 ZION declared a dividend of $0.43/share payable May 21, 2008 to shareholders of record on May 7, 2008. On 4-24 CFR declared an increased dividend of $0.42/share payable June 13, 2008 to shareholders of record on May 30th. On 4-29 BOKF declared an increased dividend of $0.225/share payable on or about May 29, 2008, to shareholders of record on May 15. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |