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Using the Forecaster Model In 2006, geography was destiny - and the metrics were misleading. It was a winning strategy to 'avoid' California and Oregon and 'buy' Texas and Oklahoma. The stocks that the analyst liked did not out-'total return' the stocks the analysts did not like. The low yielders failed to out-return the high yielders. Nor was buying the high P/E stocks or high Price/Book stocks a winning strategy. In a sector where the dividend payout ratio varies from 21% to 80%, it is not a surprise that the dividend discount model fails to be predictive. This sector sells at a fairly consistent P/E ratios despite wide variations in CAGRs. That is not logical. And the CAGRs also fail to be predictive of the stocks with high price to book ratios. That is not logical. I am not giving up hope that this sector can be forecasted. But my readers should be pessimestic about the predictions in the forecaster spreadsheet until it shows more signs of some success. This is the link to the 2006 stats for this sector, showing the projections based on 2006 begining of the year stats - along with the 2006 returns in the 'forecasting' spreadsheet which is the last of five spreadsheet posted - or roughly in the middle of the long page. This is the link to the 2007 stats page. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial & Bank of Tokyo Offer $63/share for UnionBanCal Businesswire 8-12 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group [NUFG] subsidiary The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi is offering to acquire all the publicly held common stock of UnionBanCal Corporation for $63 per share in cash, which values the company at approximately $8.8 billion. MUFG and its subsidiaries have owned a majority of UNBC since 1996 and today own approximately 65.4% of the outstanding shares. [UB's share were up 12.58% on 8-12 to close at $65.50] Moody's May Downgrade ZION's Ratings AP 8-11 Moody's Investors Service said Monday it may downgrade the investment-grade ratings on Zions Bancorp due to concerns over the regional bank's large residential and construction development portfolio. On review are the bank's "A3" senior debt rating, and the "C+" financial strength rating and "A2" long-term bank deposits rating of its main operating subsidiary, Zions First National Bank. A financial strength rating of "C+" means the bank possesses adequate intrinsic financial strength. The review will focus on Zions' problematic loan portfolios and their potential impact on the company's profitability. "Zions' total residential construction and land exposure approximately equals its Tier 1 capital," Moody's said, "and one half of these loans are in Arizona, Nevada and California, the most troubled segment of the portfolio." Moody's also expressed concern over the bank's collateralized debt obligation portfolio, which contains potentially more volatile tranches of CDO securities. CDOs are securities backed by pools of mortgages and other assets. CDOs have plummeted in value since the start of the credit crisis a year ago. [ZION shares fell 14% on 8-12]. Ratings & Dividend Changes - August RBC Capital Markets analyst Joe Morford trimmed his full-year profit estimate on ZION, but said the regional bank should survive the economic downturn better than most. After meeting with ZION's management, Morford adjusted his full-year earnings estimate to $2.95/share from $3.20/share to account for greater securities losses, lower fee income and a slight drop in loan growth. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast a profit of $3.01/share in 2008. On 8-07 JP Morgan Downgraded TRMK from Neutral to Underweight. On 8-15 Banc of America Sec Initiated CYN at Neutral. On 8-12 UCBH declared a dividend of $0.04/share payable on October 10, 2008, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 30, 2008. On 8-27 WTNY declared a dividend of $0.31/share payable on October 1, 2008 to shareholders of record as of September 15, 2008. Ratings & Dividend Changes - July On 7-07 Robert W. Baird Downgraded ZION from Outperform to Neutral. On 7-11 B. Riley Initiated TRMK at Neutral. On 7-17 JP Morgan Upgraded CNB from Neutral to Overweight. On 7-25 DA Davidson Upgraded UCBH from Neutral to Buy. On 7-03 BancorpSouth [BXS] was downgraded to hold by thestreet.com. On 7-14 Goldman Sachs downgraded ZION to "sell". On 7-01 CATY declared a dividend of $0.105/share payable on July 22, 2008, to stockholders of record on July 11, 2008. On 7-08 PACW declared a dividend of $0.32/share payable on August 29, 2008, to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 15, 2008. On 7-15 PCBC declared a dividend of $0.22/share payable August 12, 2008, to shareholders of record as of July 22, 2008. On 7-16 CNB declared a ividend of $0.095/share to be paid on August 8, 2008 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 25, 2008. On 7-18 ZION declared a dividend of $0.43/share payable August 20, 2008 to shareholders of record on August 6, 2008. On 7-21 FNB declared a dividend of $0.24/share payable on September 15, 2008 to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2008. On 7-22 RF approved a reduction in its dividend from $0.38 to $0.10/share to be paid 10-01-08. On 7-22 EWBC declared a dividend of $0.10/share payable on or about August 19, 2008 to shareholders of record on August 6, 2008. On 7-23 UB declared a dividend of $0.52/share to be paid on October 3, 2008, to shareholders of record as of September 5, 2008. On 7-23 BXS declared a dividend of $0.22/share payable October 1, 2008 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 15, 2008. On 7-23 TRMK declared a dividend of $0.23/share payable September 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on September 1, 2008. On 7-24 CYN declared a dividend of $0.48/share payable on August 20, 2008 to stockholders of record on August 6, 2008. On 7-24 WABC declared a dividend of $0.35/share to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 4, 2008. The dividend is payable August 15, 2008. On 7-25 CBSH declared a dividend of $0.25/share payable September 26, 2008, to stockholders of record at the close of business on September 12, 2008. On 7-17 FHN declared a distribution on Oct. 1, 2008 for the first time payable in shares of common stock. The dividend rate will be 3.0165%, which means that 30.165 new dividend shares will be distributed for every 1,000 shares held on the record date of Sept. 12, 2008. The dividend rate was determined to provide shareholders with new shares having a value of 20 cents for each share held on the record date, based on First Horizon's volume weighted average stock price on July 11, 2008, of $6.5328 per share. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |