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Bank dividends under pressure Reuters & AP 11-13 The inability to earn at par with dividend levels, and regulatory pressure will force more U.S. mid-sized banks to further slash their dividend, J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Steven Alexopoulos said. U.S. lawmakers had urged Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday to clarify that the government bailout funds should not be used to acquire healthy banks or pay out dividends. Banks should not maintain a level of cash dividends inconsistent with the firm's capital position that could weaken the firm's financial health, or that could impair its ability to meet the needs of credit-worthy borrowers, regulators said. Analyst Alexopoulos said Marshall & Ilsley, TCF Financial, BB&T, Synovus Financial and M&T Bank are most likely to be forced by regulators to cut their dividend. Each of those banks has recently said it does not feel a dividend cut is necessary, but Alexopoulos noted that regulators might not agree. Alexopoulos identified those banks as the most likely for dividend cuts based on the measures set forth by the regulatory statement and how the banks rank compared with their peers. The analyst sees least risk of a dividend cut at City National Bank (CYN), PrivateBancorp (PVTB), People's United Financial (PBCT) and Zions Bancorp (ZION). People's United and PrivateBancorp are well-positioned to gain from a negative impact on their competitors amid an economic slowdown, the analyst said. Ratings & Dividend Changes - November On 11-20 FMER declared a dividend of $0.29/share payable December 15, 2008 to shareholders of record on December 1, 2008. On 11-05 Bernstein Research downgraded U.S mid-cap banks Synovus Financial (SNV) and Marshall & Ilsley (MI) to "market perform" from "outperform". The brokerage cut its ratings of Synovus and Marshall & Ilsley "on both valuations approaching our price targets and prolonged weakness in residential construction portfolios, where losses are likely to exceed our prior forecast," it said in a note to clients. "Looking out 12 months, we believe the market will focus on a sequentially better 2010 and more normal tangible returns of 16% to 18%," it said. Bernstein said it saw a peak in charge-offs in the third quarter of 2009 at the earliest. Bernstein Upgraded FITB from Market Perform to Outperform based on valuations. On 11-07 Analysts at Janney Montgomery Scott on Friday cut their earnings estimates on custody banks Bank of New York Mellon (BK), State Street (STT) and Northern Trust (NTRS) on weak outlooks and expectations of lower asset growth. "Moreover, client losses in securities lending portfolios will lead to significant reductions in fees associated with this ancillary service activity, with no corresponding short-term offset," the analysts said in a research note. "Our expectations are for overall fee income growth to turn negative next year," they said, citing lower markets and weaker results in foreign exchange and securities lending. Ratings & Dividend Changes - October On 10-15 SUSQ declared a dividend of $0.26/share payable on November 20, 2008 to shareholders of record November 3, 2008. On 10-15 HBAN declared a dividend of $0.1325/share payable January 1, 2009, to shareholders of record on December 13, 2008. On 10-16 MI declared a dividend of $0.32/share payable on December 12, 2008, to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 28, 2008. On 10-16 WL declared a dividend of $0.345/share to be paid on November 17, 2008, to stockholders of record on November 3, 2008. On 10-21 NTRS declared a dividend of $0.28/share payable on January 2, 2009, to stockholders of record on December 10, 2008. On 10-21 FULT declared a dividend of $0.15/share on January 15, 2009 to shareholders of record as of December 18, 2008. On 10-22 ONB declared a dividend of $0.23/share payable December 15, 2008, to shareholders of record December 1, 2008. On 10-22 MBFI declared a dividend of $0.18/share to shareholders of record as of November 14, to be paid on November 28. On 10-27 NBTB declared a dividend of $0.20/share to be paid on December 15, 2008, to shareholders of record as of December 1, 2008. On 10-28 NAL declared a dividend of $.07/share to be paid on November 18, 2008 to shareholders of record on November 7, 2008. On 10-03 Fitch cut National City's long-term issuer default rating by two notches to a still investment grade "BBB+" from "A." On 10-10 Robert W. Baird upgraded M&T Bank Corp to "neutral" from "underperform" on valuation. On 10-15 USB was raised to Hold from Sell by Citigroup and started at Market Perform by KBW. On 10-23 Janney Mntgmy Scott Upgraded NTRS from Neutral to Buy. On 10-20 Fitch affirms Citizens Republic Bancorp [CRBC] at 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative. Home Page Factoids Previous Update |