Regional Bank Valuation Update
Valuation and Performance Spreadsheets for: ASBC, BBT, CRBC, CHCO, CMA, FMBI, FITB,
FMER, FULT, HBAN, MBFI, MI, MTB, NAL, NBTB, NTRS, ONB, SKYF, SNV, SUSQ, USB, VLY, WL

Factoids
 Current Issue

Daily #s
Yahoo Banks
Excite Banks

Banking News
Bankstocks.com

2009 Updates
Sept   Aug   July
June   May   Apr
Mar   Feb   Jan

2008 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct
Sept   Aug   July
Jun   May   Apr
Mar   Feb   Jan

2007 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct
Sept   Aug   Jul
Jun   May   Apr
Mar   Feb   Jan

2006 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct
Sept   Aug   July
Jun   May   Aprl
Mar   Feb   Jan

2005 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct
Sept   Aug   July
Jun   May   Aprl
Mar   Feb   Jan

2004 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct
Sept   Aug   July
Jun   May   Aprl
Mar   Feb   Jan

2003 Updates
Dec   Nov   Oct


North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 9-30-09
Yields below are based on the Q3-09 dividends. ASBC, CMA, FMBI, FMER, FULT, HBAN, MBFI, ONB, SNV, SUSQ and USB have reduced their Q2-09 divs - BBT and WL their Q3-09 divs. Price/book ratios are based on the Q2-09 book values.


Regional Bank News

VLY to Repurchase $125.7M TARP Shares     AP 9-16
    Valley National Bancorp said Wednesday it received approval from the U.S. Department of the Treasury to buy back 125,000 of the 225,000 shares of its preferred stock held by the Treasury as part of the TARP capital purchase program. VLY expects to buy back the shares on Friday and pay about $125.7 million. VLY repurchased 75,000 shares on June 3 and after the current buyback it will have repaid $200 million of $300 million in shares issued to the Treasury under the program during November 2008.

USB eyes dividend increase     Reuters 9-15
    U.S. Bancorp, which slashed its dividend 88% in March, is considering raising the payout in the near-term, Chief Executive Richard Davis said on Tuesday. The bank, which trimmed its quarterly dividend to 5 cents a share during the spring stock market slump, is reviewing its payout after repaying $6.6 billion from the U.S. government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, Davis told a Barclays Capital conference in New York. "You will see us take action in the near-term that will be favorable," to the dividend, he said. Separately, Davis said that while loan losses will continue to rise this year, the rate of the increase is slowing. But broadly, demand for loans remains lower than the bank's appetite to lend. Davis also said he is not concerned about the bank's commercial real estate portfolios, where other banks have recently reported rising losses.

Loss rate for bankcards falls in July     AP 9-08
     Losses for the corporate entities behind credit cards issued by U.S. banks dropped in July for the first time in almost two years, according to a report from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. But the agency sees the drop as a blip before the rates zoom higher. S&P said the losses among the bankcard trusts in its U.S. Credit Card Quality Index slipped to 9.8%, from its record high of 10.4% in June. Bankcards typically carry the logos of MasterCard, Visa, American Express or Discover. S&P said the decline may reflect banks' moves to impose stricter lending standards, and a more cautious consumer.
    S&P expects losses to rise again in the next few months, because of the persistent high employment rate and rising delinquency rates, or the percentage of customers whose payments are past due. It forecast loss rates ranging from an average of 10.5% to 13% this year, and said they could remain that high for the next year or two.
    There is a strong historical relationship between credit card losses and the unemployment rate, and S&P thinks the correlation increases as unemployment rises. The Labor Department said last week the unemployment rate swelled to 9.7%, the highest it's been since the mid-1980s.
    S&P also expects that the decline in consumer spending and a reduction in available credit due to tighter underwriting standards will continue to result in falling receivables balances for credit card trusts. That will increase loss rates expressed as a percentage of the trust balances.
    Compounding the payment difficulties is the fact that some banks have raised interest rates and increased the percentage of the account due each month, which may make some consumers unable to pay their higher balances, S&P noted. The effects from these moves may start showing up in loss rates in the next few months. For retail credit cards, which include gas and department store cards, losses in July also decreased, falling about 0.9% to 10.8%.

MBFI Acquires Deposits and Loans of InBank     BusinessWire 9-04
     MB Financial acquired the deposits and loans of Oak Forest-based InBank at the close of business today in a transaction facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. As of August 3, 2009, InBank had total assets of approximately $212 million and total deposits of approximately $200 million. MB will assume all the deposits of InBank, except approximately $50.0 million of brokered accounts. The FDIC will pay the brokers directly for these accounts. In addition, MB agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets of InBank.

F.D.I.C. May Borrow Funds From Banks     NY Times 9-20
     Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors. That would enable the fund, which is rapidly running out of money because of a wave of bank failures, to continue to rescue the sickest banks. The plan, strongly supported by bankers and their lobbyists, would be a major reversal of fortune.
    Borrowing from the industry is allowed under an obscure provision of a 1991 law adopted during the savings and loan crisis. The lending banks would receive bonds from the government at an interest rate that would be set by the Treasury secretary and ultimately would be paid by the rest of the industry. The bonds would be listed as an asset on the books of the banks.
    Bankers and their lobbyists like the idea because it is more attractive than the alternatives: yet another across-the-board emergency assessment on them, or tapping an existing $100 billion credit line to the Treasury. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which oversees the fund, is said to be reluctant to use its authority to borrow from the Treasury. Under the law, the FDIC would not need permission from the Treasury to tap into a credit line of up to $100 billion.

Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey     NY Times 9-20
    Among the findings released Monday in the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey: [1] Median home values dropped in 2008, and the homeownership rate fell half a point, to 66.6%, the lowest since 2002. [2] The median price of an owner-occupied home fell nationally (by 2%, to $197,600) and in 22 states. The biggest declines were in Nevada and California (16%) and Florida (9%). Increases in value were recorded in Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and North Carolina. [3] In a country where people typically move to take advantage of better job opportunities, those who changed residences fell to 15% in 2008, from a recent peak of 16% in 2006. [4] Real median household income declined nationwide, rising in only five states — New York, New Jersey, Kansas, Louisiana and Texas — compared with 33 states in 2007. It ranged from $37,790 in Mississippi to $70,545 in Maryland.


Ratings & Dividend Changes - September

    On 9-02 Fitch Ratings put MI's debt ratings on negative watch citing elevated loan losses. The watch applied to the issuer default rating and debt ratings of Marshall & Ilsley and its subsidiary banks. The long- and short-term issuer default ratings at the company and its subsidiary banks are BBB+ and F2, respectively. In a note to investors Tuesday, Fitch analyst John Mackery noted that Marshall & Ilsley has sold about $1.6 billion of problem loans since first quarter of 2008. He wrote that MI's challenges largely stem from its construction and land development portfolio, especially in hard hit Arizona. Mackery wrote that Fitch is evaluating loan quality indicators to determine if Marshall & Ilsley has taken sufficient measures to stem the tide of new problem loans. A downgrade is likely if Fitch finds that the company's asset quality isn't expected to stabilize soon, Mackery wrote.

    On 9-15 FITB declared a dividend of $0.01 payable on October 22, 2009 to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2009. On 9-15 USB declared a dividend of $0.05/share payable October 15, 2009, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 30, 2009.

    On 9-09 Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded MBFI from Hold to Buy. On 9-21 Boenning & Scattergood Initiated coverage of CHCO at Outperform. On 9-21 Bernstein Downgraded CMA from Outperform to Market Perform and Upgraded MI from Market Perform to Outperform. On 9-23 Collins Stewart Initiated coverage of BBT, FITB, SNV and USB at Hold; and Initiated MTB at Sell. On 9-23 Wells Fargo Initiated BBT, FITB amd USB at Market Perform. On 9-21 Bernstein Downgraded CMA from Outperform to Market Perform, Bernstein Upgraded MI from Market Perform to Outperform, and Boenning & Scattergood Initiated coverage of CHCO at Outperform. On 9-24 Janney Mntgmy Scott Upgraded FULT from Neutral to Buy. On 9-28 Oppenheimer Upgraded FMBI from Perform to Outperform. On 9-29 FBR Capital Upgraded HBAN from Market Perform to Outperform, Upgraded USB from Underperform to Market Perform and Downgraded SNV from Market Perform to Underperform. On 9-30 RBC Capital Markets Initiated coverage of BBT at Sector Perform.

    On 9-22 ONB announced that it priced a public offering of 18 million shares of common stock at $10 per share. The 18 million shares represent an increase in the size of the offering from that announced on September 21, 2009. ONB estimates the net proceeds from the offering will be approximately $171 million after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions. ONB intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes and to support ongoing and future anticipated growth, which may include opportunistic acquisitions of other financial institutions, possibly including acquisitions of assets and liabilities of failed or distressed financial institutions in FDIC-sponsored or assisted transactions.

    On 9-09 Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded MBFI from Hold to Buy.

    On 9-16 Fitch Ratings affirmed the ratings of Synovus and its subsidiary banks in the wake of the company’s plan to raise $500 million in new capital. Among the subsidiaries whose ratings were affirmed is Synovus Bank, a $1.5 billion-asset bank headquartered in St. Petersburg and with 25 offices along the west coast of Florida. The ratings affirmation anticipates that SNV will successfully execute the plan, which includes a $350 million common stock issuance, an offer to exchange debt for stock and various balance sheet refinements. Fitch said it viewed these capital enhancements as both prudent and necessary, given the company's ongoing asset quality challenges and significant exposure to troubled regions of the southeast United States.
    SNV's credit issues stem from the bank’s construction, development and land loan portfolios, most of which are in Atlanta and in Florida, Fitch said. The company has been successful in disposing of problem assets, but Fitch said it believe the company will have nonperforming assets at an elevated level over the near term. Fitch said it had additional concerns regarding a memorandum of understanding between Synovus, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the state of Georgia.

    On 9-16 SNV announced it has priced a public offering of 150 million shares of its common stock at $4.00 per share. The offering will generate gross proceeds of $600 million, without giving effect to the exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares. The closing date for the transaction is expected to be September 22, 2009.

    On 9-14 MBFI said it plans to offer 10.9 million of common stock at the below market value price of $16/share. The offering is a 6% discount from Friday's closing price of $17.03. Proceeds from the $175 million stock sale will be used for general corporate purposes, the company said. The offering is expected to close on Sept. 17.

    On 9-09 Huntington Bancshares said it is launching a common stock offering to raise up to $150 million. The offering is part of a capital raising plan the regional bank announced in May to help repay a $1.4 billion loan it received as part of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Huntington Bancshares will sell the stock through a discretionary equity issuance plan that allows it to offer shares from time to time instead of a more traditional one-time sale of stock to raise the money. Based on Tuesday's closing price of $4.07, Huntington Bancshares would have to issue about 36.9 million shares of common stock to raise $150 million. The bank had 569 million shares of common stock outstanding as of July 31.


Ratings & Dividend Changes - August

    On 8-06 Keefe Bruyette Downgraded FITB from Outperform to Market Perform.

    On 8-31 Sterne Agee raised its rating on ASBC to "Neutral," from "Sell," noting that the shares had fallen to reach its $10 price target. Shares closed Friday at $10.02. That reflected a 6.6% decline since the bank said that CEO Paul Beideman is retiring. ASBC has not yet named a successor. The CEO's exit follows the retirement in May of President and Chief Operating Officer Lisa Binder. Sterne Agee analyst Peyton Green noted the 34% drop in the stock price since the investment bank began following the bank in April, and remarked on the continued weakness of the economy in Wisconsin, where more than half Associated's loans are written. While the state's economy continues to struggle, jobless claims seem to have stabilized, Green said. And although non-performing assets, or loans that are 90 days or more past due and likely to go into default, have increased, the stock is now trading at a relatively low price.

    On 8-27 analyst Mac Hodgson of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey raised his rating on WL to "Buy" from "Neutral", writing that the regional bank is seeing credit trends improve and is unlikely to make a near-term stock offering to raise capital. He also revised his earnings outlook for Wilmington Trust and set an initial $16 price target for the shares. Hodgson said in a research note that he expects credit trends to improve for WL in the current quarter compared with the second quarter, when WL saw a nearly 32% increase in non-performing assets compared with Q1-09. WL also recorded securities losses of $23.4 million on pooled trust-preferred investment securities.
    But Hodgson, who recently made a field visit to discuss WL's prospects with management, said he doesn't expect non-performing assets to jump sharply in Q3-09. He also doesn't see WL making an "outsized" loan-loss provision, "as management indicated that it is seeing some stability in its markets, and commercial real estate is holding up well." WL has likely absorbed the bulk of expenses from credit-related impairment charges, he said. "Any negative impact on regulatory ratios will not be meaningful," he said.
    WL's tangible common equity ratio remains low, but "should improve in coming quarters with better earnings, an only 1 cent quarterly dividend and limited, if any, balance sheet growth," Hodgson said. "As a result, we do not think WL needs to raise capital in the near term." Hodgson raised his full-year 2009 earnings estimate to 30 cents per share from his previous forecast of 20 cents per share. For 2010, he reduced his estimate to 94 cents per share from $1.03.

    On 8-03 MBFI declared a dividend of $0.01/share to shareholders of record as of August 21, to be paid on August 31. On 8-20 MI declared a dividend of $0.01/share payable on September 11, 2009 to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 1, 2009. On 8-19 VLY declared a dividend of $0.19/share to be paid October 1, 2009 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2009. On 8-19 MTB declared a dividend of $0.70/share payable September 30, 2009 to stockholders of record at the close of business on September 1, 2009.

    On 8-20 FMER declared a quarterly dividend of $0.16/share payable September 21, 2009, to shareholders of record on August 31, 2009. Shareholders of record on August 31, 2009 will also receive a $0.13 per share dividend of common stock, which will be converted into shares based on the closing price of common stock on August 31, 2009.


Home Page    Factoids    Previous Update