Regional Bank Valuation Update
Valuation and Performance Spreadsheets for: ASBC, BBT, CRBC, CHCO, CMA, FMBI, FITB,
FMER, FULT, HBAN, MBFI, MI, MTB, NAL, NBTB, NTRS, ONB, SKYF, SNV, SUSQ, USB, VLY, WL

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North-East, Mid-Atlantic & Mid-West Regional Banks 11-20-09
Yields below are based on the Q4-09 dividends. ASBC, CMA, FMBI, FMER, FULT, HBAN, MBFI, ONB, SNV, SUSQ and USB have reduced their Q2-09 divs - BBT and WL their Q3-09 divs. Price/book ratios are based on the Q3-09 book values. I am in the process of updating spreadsheets with the Q3-09 metrics. This is the only web page where I use negative EPS estimates - and the code does not consistently produce the correct changes when negative EPS numbers occur.


Regional Bank News

Synovus seeks to quell investor fears     AP 11-13
     Synovus Financial Corp. affirmed the strength of its capital position Friday, after investors sent its stock tumbling on fears regulators could pressure the regional bank to raise its capital reserves. In a release, Synovus noted that its Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.48% as of Sept. 30. Banks need at least a 6% ratio to be considered well-capitalized by regulatory standards, Synovus said. SNV's total risk-based capital ratio is 13.84%; the regulatory minimum is 10%. SNV also affirmed its forecast for a profit in 2010.
    Citing the filing, a Morgan Keegan analyst then downgraded the bank. Analyst Robert Patten forecast that Synovus' Tier 1 ratio would drop to 7.5% at the end of next year, and he cut his rating to "Market Perform" from "Outperform." Patten also cut his projection for 2010 to a loss of $1.10 per share from 75 cents per share because of the expected cost of bad-debt provisions.
    In its release Friday, Synovus Chairman and CEO Richard Anthony said the company is managing its credit "in a proactive and aggressive manner. Given our strength of capital combined with our continued focus on disposing of non-performing assets and improvements in core operating results, we remain confident in our belief that we have the opportunity to achieve profitability during 2010," Anthony said.


Ratings & Dividend Changes - November

    On 11-02 Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded BBT from Sell to Hold and Sterne Agee Upgraded BBT from Neutral to Buy.

    On 10-20 NTRS declared a dividend of $0.28/share payable on January 4, 2010, to stockholders of record on December 10, 2009. On 10-27 NAL declared a dividend of $0.07/share to shareholders of record on November 6, 2009 and payable on November 17, 2009. On 10-28 ASBC declared a dividend of $0.05/share, payable on November 16, 2009, to shareholders of record on November 6, 2009. On 10-30 MBFI declard a dividend of $0.01/share to shareholders of record as of November 16, to be paid on November 30.

    On 11-10 Morgan Keegan analyst Robert Patten downgraded SNV, saying government pressure for banks to build capital reserves as well as ongoing credit issues will pressure the stock. Patten cut his projection for 2010 to a loss of $1.10/share from $0.75/share because of the expected cost of bad debt provisions. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect a loss of $1.02/share in 2010, on average. In a regulatory filing with the SEC on Monday, Synovus used "cautious wording" on "potential regulatory enforcement increasing," Patten noted. Synovus warned that the possibility of deteriorating credit, further regulatory directives, more non-performing assets and the need to set aside more money to cover bad debt could hurt its liquidity position and capital ratios and require the bank to seek additional capital. "The potential need for more capital and/or loan loss reserve has heightened our concerns," Patten said. Meanwhile non-performing loans -- loans written off as not being repaid -- are still high.
    Even Synovus currently has a sufficient amount of capital according to regulators specifications, Patten said, "it is challenging to handicap whether regulators could require management to further bolster capital ratios given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding regulatory reforms and the strength of the economic recovery."
    In its filing, Synovus said that its regulators maintain a "well-capitalized" bank would have Tier 1 ratio of 6 percent or greater, along with other criteria. As of Sept. 30, Synovus said, it and its subsidiary banks fall into that category. Synovus has bolstered its balance sheet this fall, raising $570.9 million in equity in September and swapping debt for equity earlier this month. But Patten sees the bank's Tier 1 ratio, a key measure of a bank's solvency, dropping to 7.5% at the end of next year from 10.5% on Sept. 30. Patten cut his rating to "Market Perform" from "Outperform," saying uncertainty about the company's cash position will keep shares from rising.


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