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An
uncertain economy, shaky consumer confidence and impacts from the
unfolding war against terrorism will most likely reduce U.S. lumber demand
next year, according to Western Wood Products Association's 2002 lumber
forecast.
The Portland-based trade association said that following
three strong years of U.S. consumption, 2002 levels are expected to
decline 2.8 percent to 51.7 billion board feet. Most of the anticipated
decrease is expected in the first half of the year, with a predicted
rebound in the third and fourth quarters of 2002. Uncertainty in the U.S.
economy - heightened by the September terrorist attacks - is likely to
trigger a slowdown in housing construction and repair/remodeling activity.
New home starts, which performed better than expected in
2001, are predicted to dip to 1.52 million in 2002. As a result, WWPA is
forecasting lumber used in residential
construction to fall to 19.9 billion board feet. Lumber usage in the
repair/remodeling market is expected to decline 2.5 percent to 15.8
billion board feet.
"Residential construction is the largest market for lumber, so any
reduction in the number of new homes built will affect lumber
consumption," said WWPA President Michael O'Halloran. "Although demand
will be lower, we expect production at Western mills to remain steady next
year." |
In
response to the lower demand, U.S. lumber manufacturers are expected to
curtail production 1.4 percent to 34.4 billion board feet. Western
production levels are projected to dip 1.6 percent, to 16.5 billion board
feet, compared to an expected 2.6 percent decrease this year. Southern
lumber production is anticipated to fall slightly to 16.1 billion board
feet next year after a 2.8 percent decline in 2001.
According to recent statistics
released by WWPA, Western lumber production was down 2.5 percent through
the first nine months of 2001. While production at Coast mills was up 2.4
percent, output at Inland mills, still struggling with timber
availability, was down 6.9 percent for the year.
Overall U.S. lumber imports are expected to drop off 4.6
percent in 2002 due to an anticipated 5.2 decrease in Canadian shipments.
Imports from Europe and New Zealand are forecast to increase in 2002, but
still represent a small share of overall lumber supply in the U.S. Western
Wood Products Association represents lumber manufacturers in the 12
Western states and Alaska. Based in Portland, WWPA compiles lumber
industry statistics and provides business information services to mills.
The Association also delivers quality standards and technical support
services to the industry.
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