The draft report of the Southern Forest Resource Assessment (SFRA) indicates that in the next 40 years overall forestland loss due to urban sprawl in certain areas will be offset by shifts from agriculture to forestland in other areas, resulting in a 2% net loss of Southern forestland. The region will experience a westward shift in its forest area, while the Piedmont area suffers most from urbanization.

The South will continue its dominant role in the nation's timber production, as Southern softwood harvests increase 56% and Southern hardwood harvests increase 47% until 2040. Yet, the increased timber production won't deplete Southern forest inventories below current levels, as softwood inventories continue to expand, while hardwood inventories expand until 2025 and then decline slightly until 2040.

The SFRA was initiated in May 1999 to examine the status, trends and potential future of Southern forests and their various benefits. USDA Forest Service has led the effort in cooperation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Environmental Protection Agency, Tennessee Valley Authority and forestry and fish and wildlife agencies within the Southern states.

The assessment addresses forces of change that continue to reshape forests, including timber markets, social institutions, biological factors and physical factors; and it examines Southern forest conditions from four perspectives: social and economic systems; forest area and condition; terrestrial ecosystems; and water quality, wetlands and aquatic ecosystems.

Not surprisingly, pine plantations are expected to increase across the Southern forest landscape. The area of pine plantations will increase 67% to 54 million acres by 2040. Planted pine had increased from 2 million acres in 1953 to 32 million acres in 1999. Non-plantation forest acreage is expected to decline 15%. This evolvement leads to some concern about proper biodiversity being limited to smaller shares of the forest landscape.

Southern forest area has remained constant in the past 100 years. Current forest area is 214 million acres, showing little net change since the 1940s, about 91% of that recorded in 1907 and 60% of the total in 1630. Government agencies manage 11% (21.4 million acres), with the remaining 89% privately owned. Twenty-two percent of the private timberland is owned by forest industry companies, 21 % by farmers, 12% by other corporations and 45% by other individuals.

Between 1953 and 1997, the South's timber production more than doubled, and its share of U.S. production increased from 41% to 58%; its share of world production increased from 6.3% to 15.8%. The region produces more timber than any country in the world. Timber market models forecast that timber production in the U.S. will increase by a third through 2040, with nearly all of this growth coming in the South.

Concerning water systems, the assessment states that 30% of the South has relatively good water quality, 36% has moderate water quality problems and 15% has serious water quality problems.  Of the 11 major sources of water quality impairment, agriculture and urbanization have ranked highest, with silviculture ranking next to last. When properly implemented, best management practices are effective in controlling nonpoint source pollution from silvicultural activities. Twelve of the 13 Southern states have monitored BMP compliance and reported results.

Approximately 32.6 million acres of forested wetlands occur in 10 Southern states. Rates of wetland losses have declined since the 1970s.

The study indicates that of the 1,208 vertebrate species known to exist in the South, 132 are considered to be of conservation concern, and 28 are classified as critically imperiled. Loss of habitat is the primary cause of endangerment.

The draft report is available for public review and commentary until February 1, at which time it could be amended. Electronic copies of the report can be accessed at the assessment's web site, www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain. Call (828) 257-4200 to obtain the report on CD-ROM or to get hard copies.