Website Menu Home Tomorrow's Free Daily Stock Picks - neural network generated free daily stock picks for next day swing trading System Overview - an explanation of the swing trading system Swing Trading History - the details of each closed swing trade... "A", "B", "C", "D" and "E" Picks "A" Pick Trading History - the details of each closed "A" swing trade Swing Trading History Screens - improve your swing trading performance Buying and Selling - recommendations on how to place your swing trades Frequently Asked Questions STSS Hesler Group Page (Member Log In)		Brought to you by Robert Hesler Neural Network Designer Email Robert		Stock-Optimizer… Stock Market Allocation Short Term Stock Selector… Swing Trading The Weekly Stock Selector… Fundamental Picks Set Better Limit Orders... Stock Utility 4 Neural Network Powered Systems - 1 price -click below for your free trial- What is a Neural Network?

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Website Last Updated
Thursday, October 09, 2008 5:53:58 PM Eastern Time

Short Term Swing Trading Picks

The Short Term Stock Selector has provided neural network generated swing trading predictions since 1996. Recommendations for next morning swing trading are posted approximately 2 hours after market close on Monday through Thursday. Posts made on Sunday and holidays appear in the morning or afternoon.

All buy and sell recommendations are based on 19 technical indicators. Some indicators pertain to the market in general while others pertain to individual stock attributes. The STSS (Short Term Stock Selector) neural network essentially reads stock charts. A human being looks at a stock chart in two dimensions, time and price. If a stock chart could be viewed in three dimensions volume would be a good choice for the third dimension. The STSS neural network looks at a stock chart in 19 dimensions. It compares the chart with similar charts in its historical database. It then predicts how the stock will trade based on how similar chart patterns have traded in the past. Our swing trades close in approximately seven market days. Over the years I've gotten many questions like the following...

Question. I would like to know what your neural network thinks about this particular stock, SHAW GROUP (NYSE:SGR).

The Short Answer - Sorry, I can't help you on this question.
The Long Answer - This is a special question because the answer reveals deep insight into our swing trading system.

Though the neural network considers many factors associated with a particular stock it doesn't really come up with an opinion about the stock. The neural network comes up with an opinion about how the stock will trade over the near term - the swing trade.

Most investors will not see much difference between an opinion about a stock and an opinion on how it will trade. This is what makes The Short Term Stock Selector unique and different from other stock selection services. It is also why the Annual Return On Investment (ROI) on our "A" swing trades is so high. The STSS neural network does not evaluate stocks, it evaluates potential swing trades. Furthermore, the neural network only evaluates potential swing trades at very specific points in time. Also, the universe of stocks in the database it screens is limited by design and SHAW GROUP (NYSE:SGR) isn't in its universe. One gets the impression that this swing trading system is pretty darn picky and not very versatile, one would be right.

Complete Swing Trading History... Exactly 40843 Trades Completed Swing Trading statistics since The Short Term Stock Selector inception: 4/11/96 through 10/9/08 Definition: ROI = Return On Investment
Our neural network rates its picks "A", "B", "C", "D" or "E" before positions are opened. Theoretically, "A" picks have the highest probability of success and "E" picks the lowest.	"A" Picks... Annual ROI = 40%		"B" Picks... Annual ROI = 9%		"C" Picks... Annual ROI = 7%		"D" Picks... Annual ROI = 4%		"E" Picks... Annual ROI = 2%
	Trades	%	Trades	%	Trades	%	Trades	%	Trades	%
Winners	8682	66.1%	3480	63.6%	3628	63.9%	3882	64.9%	6681	63.2%
Losers	4347	33.1%	1937	35.4%	2016	35.5%	2049	34.3%	3798	35.9%
Broke Even	106	0.8%	55	1%	36	0.6%	47	0.8%	99	0.9%
Totals	13135	100%	5472	100%	5680	100%	5978	100%	10578	100%
Annual Results Year by Year "A" Picks vs. S&P 500 Trading Statistics
Year	"A" Picks ROI			S&P 500 ROI			"A" Picks Result
Year 1: 4/11/96 - 4/10/97	82.63%			19.71%			OUTPERFORM
Year 2: 4/11/97 - 4/10/98	200.01%			46.46%			OUTPERFORM
Year 3: 4/11/98 - 4/10/99	7.26%			20.40%			UNDER PERFORM
Year 4: 4/11/99 - 4/10/00	84.81%			11.58%			OUTPERFORM
Year 5: 4/11/00 - 4/10/01	64.42%			-22.34%			OUTPERFORM
Year 6: 4/11/01 - 4/10/02	-16.88%			-3.24%			UNDER PERFORM
Year 7: 4/11/02 - 4/10/03	24.69%			-22.90%			OUTPERFORM
Year 8: 4/11/03 - 4/10/04	113.36%			30.72%			OUTPERFORM
Year 9: 4/11/04 - 4/10/05	4.64%			3.68%			OUTPERFORM
Year 10: 4/11/05 - 4/10/06	32.84%			9.77%			OUTPERFORM
Year 11: 4/11/06 - 4/10/07	21.70%			11.71%			OUTPERFORM
Year 12: 4/11/07 - 4/10/08	26.20%			-6.1%			OUTPERFORM
The Last 52 Weeks "A" Picks vs. S&P 500 trading statistics for the last 52 weeks: 10/10/07 through 10/9/08
"A" Picks Annual ROI = 35.58%					S&P 500 Annual ROI = -41.76%
Number of "A" Trades: 2288 Average Profit per Trade: 0.856% Average Holding Period: 7.057 Market Days					S&P 500 close on 10/10/07: 1562.47 S&P 500 close on 10/9/08: 909.92

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