My professional background is 38 years in the computer software industry.  I started in 1962 fresh out of high school as a computer operator and worked up through the ranks as computer programmer, programming manager, department manager and computer consultant.  In 1968 I began investigating the stock market and ventured into stocks, warrants, options, municipal bonds, commodities and limited partnership interests in oil wells, filmmaking and real estate.  Along the way I found out what our government had done to our money and began to understand our economy a little better.

I believe in the 500 year cycle described in The Great Reckoning as well as the Elliott Wave theory.  Do I believe the government is at fault for our market crashing?  No, but, they are not above taking advantage of natural cycles and molding or delaying the inevitable.  Do I believe we have free markets?  No, and we haven’t had free markets since 1929.  Do I believe the reporting by the investment media can be trusted?  In two words NO, NEVER!  Do I believe in the "buy and hold" myth?  Again, NO, NEVER!

The 1987 market drop did not catch me, but, it did motivate me to study what happened.  Then, in 1996 I began working with another local man.  We studied the Elliott wave and began collecting daily data for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq markets.  Now, my Dow data goes back to 1890.  Through these studies, I’ve discovered the 54 day crash pattern, the little hump in the price graph on the 40th day (of 54 days), the final two week slide into the crash low and the fact that 50-70% of all of the points lost is in the last 4 trading days.  The only one of these that is unique to me is the last one; "50-70% of the point loss comes in the last 4 trading days".

All of these point to a disasterous and historic crash of the US stock market (soon).  Get your cameras and VCRs out to record history as it happens!  That is, if you can hold your hands steady and see through your tears.

Oh, yes, NO JUMPING OUT OF WINDOWS!

. . . A major confirmation of the onset of depression will be a concerted effort on the part of political authorities to locate scapegoats for the slump.  Every slump and market crash in history has been blamed upon something other than a decline in economic prospects.  The pattern is infallible.  The blame is fixed partly on some technical factor: short-selling, margin abuse, etc.; and partly on some fraud or peculation of wicked manipulators. . .

. . . We had hints of this with the work of the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash. . .

. . . Can you imagine a major newspaper (much less the leaders of a country) saying that stocks fell because objective conditions no longer supported their further rise? . . . politicians have continued to pretend that all was well long after events provided impressive evidence to the contrary. . .

In spite of these often well-intended gestures, the economy will shift into a contraction that government will be powerless to abate.  Asset prices, especially real estate and stocks, will tumble.  Credit will contract.  Governments hungry for reelection will panic as the asset deflation gathers force.  Their first response will be an attempt to counter contraction with easy money.  The Federal Reserve and other central banks, especially the Bank of Japan, could buy up the bad debts of insolvent institutions, like big banks and industrial corporations.  The Bundesbank could monetize the reunification bonds and move to shore up weak German companies, like Krupp.  In the United States, the Fed could buy Los Angeles's overdue notes, or pump money into New York's till to forestall budget cuts.  In short, the socialization of losses could be taken to greater extremes.  The bad debts of all large borrowers could be added to the government's balance sheet.  Central banks could essentially become national pawn shops - economy-wide holding companies of insolvent institutions.  They could end up owning many banks, perhaps some insurance companies, and a great deal of real estate.