I AIN'T SCARED OF NO GLOBAL WARMING

Practically everyone now agrees that we are in a period of global warming. A long trail of evidence was most recently supplemented by the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the "Panel") which reported to world governments in October that it now expects planetary warming to be in the range of 2.7 to 11 degrees F. during the next century. This was up from the range of 1.8 to 6.3 degrees F. it estimated in its report just five years ago. The Panel is a U.N.-administered entity made up of leading climate scientists from over 100 countries.

A smaller majority agrees that global warming is caused, or aggravated, by human activity. In fact, the radical change in the Panel's estimates resulted from new evidence about the effect of sulfate pollution from factories and power plants. Problems associated with global warming include increased sea levels, severe and costly weather events, changes in vegetation patterns, the spread of tropical diseases, and others. These are sufficiently serious that many think we should curtail activities believed to cause global warming even in the absence of unanimity as to the effectiveness of this measure. Others argue that curtailment of these activities would wreck the economy.

In 1997 the United States and some 170 other nations met in Kyoto to deal with the phenomenon. An agreement was reached to reduce carbon-based gas emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012. The United States and a handful of other countries never ratified the pact, however, and follow-up meetings were held in The Hague this past November. United States negotiators there sought to have the agreement provide for emissions swaps whereby countries that failed to meet their emissions goals could purchase credits from countries that exceeded theirs. They also sought to have credits granted for forest and agriculture-management practices that would result in improved carbon dioxide storage. Delegates, primarily from the European Union, however, rejected this and the talks collapsed. While they're scheduled for resumption next summer, this leaves it all to the tender mercies of the incoming administration. The new President's public record suggests that he probably doesn't believe global warming has a human source and may even be in the camp that doubts its existence at all.